Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
851 PM EST Thursday Mar 6 2014
Update...surface lows now off the NE Florida coast and along the west
central Florida coast will consolidate over the Atlantic and move up
the East Coast tonight. Strong winds on the northwest side of Atlantic
low has produced winds up to 40 miles per hour near the coast this evening.
Winds are starting to decrease so will cancel lake Wind Advisory.
Light rain and drizzle will continue over the area tonight. Have
added isolated thunder to forecast after midnight. Upper low over the
northern Gulf will move into NE Florida around 12z bringing cooling
temperatures aloft. This will produce weak elevated instability
which may result in a few rumbles of thunder. Have lowered min
temperatures tonight a few degrees over southeast Georgia.
IFR conditions will continue all night...mainly due to low
ceilings around 500 feet. Occasional reductions in visibility can
be expected in periods of drizzle...and even a few rain showers
will be possible late tonight. Ceilings will only slowly lift on
Friday with MVFR ceilings likely to persist through much of the
afternoon. But visibilities will improve to VFR as the rain threat
comes to an end.
solid Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue overnight as low
pressure over the area moves northeast. Occasional gusts to gale
force will continue through the rest of the evening across the
Georgia waters. Seas will continue to average between 7 to 10
feet overnight. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue on
Friday with northwesterly winds in the 20 to 25 knot range.
Rip currents: moderate risk into Friday due to long period
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 36 53 35 67 / 60 60 10 0
ssi 43 53 44 62 / 60 50 10 0
jax 45 56 37 68 / 40 40 10 0
sgj 50 59 45 64 / 30 30 10 0
gnv 45 60 37 69 / 30 30 10 0
ocf 48 63 40 70 / 30 20 0 0
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Saturday for Altamaha Sound
Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore-
Fernandina Beach to St Augustine Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore-
St Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for Altamaha Sound Georgia
to Fernandina Beach Florida out 20 nm-Fernandina Beach to St
Augustine Florida out 20 nm-St Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida out