Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
928 am EST Sat Feb 13 2016
looking at the early morning visible satellite imagery and
surface observation the frontal system has moved down the Florida
Peninsula to near Lake Okeechobee. Significant cold air advection
is taking place across the forecast area with dropping relative
humidities.Overall its going to be a cool and breezy day across
the local area with afternoon relative humidity values in the
upper 20s. While the relative humidities fall to slightly below
critical levels inland the fuel moisture levels are expected to
remain elevated enough to prevent red flag conditions.
a northwest and north flow of 10-12 knots with gusts up to 20
knots are expected through early afternoon. This should lead to a
light chop of smaller aircraft below 10 kft. Winds will then
diminish in the middle/late afternoon and become light overnight.
Clear skies are forecast through the period.
northwesterly winds of 20 to 25 knots are expected over the
offshore waters and 15 to 20 knots nearshore through late
afternoon. High pressure will move towards the Middle Atlantic States
and winds will shift to the northeast and diminish late this
evening. Winds will become northeasterly on Sunday and as the high
moves over the western Atlantic on Monday winds will become east
to southeast. A cold front will move across the waters Monday
night and Tuesday.
Rip currents: low risk of rip currents today and moderate risk on
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 53 30 54 39 / 0 0 0 10
ssi 53 35 50 45 / 0 0 10 20
jax 56 34 57 46 / 0 0 10 20
sgj 55 40 57 50 / 0 0 20 20
gnv 60 33 64 46 / 0 0 0 10
ocf 62 36 65 48 / 0 0 0 0
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for waters
from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60
nm-waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20
to 60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from
20 to 60 nm.