Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
315 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
Near term /through Saturday/...
A middle level trough will pivot across the region today...
with high cloudiness associated it. Expect most of these clouds
to pass east of the region this evening as the trough axis moves
southeast...with skies becoming mainly clear overnight.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal today...and again
High pressure will build in from the west for Saturday...with
a northerly flow. Gulf moisture to the southeast should push a
few clouds into NE Florida. Afternoon temperatures will be near
Short term /Sat night-Mon/...
High pressure will build from the north Gulf Coast region Sat night
to over NE Florida/southeast Georgia on Sunday then into the western Atlantic on Monday. Dry
and seasonably cool weather is expected with sunny/clear skies and
lows 45-55 Sat night and 50-60 Sun night. Daytime highs around 80
Sunday and 80-85 range on Monday.
Long term /Tue-Fri/...
High pressure will settle in the western Atlantic northeast of the region
and will start a long period of weak onshore flow. This will
gradually increase low level moisture to the point that isolated
showers over the coastal waters may push into the I-95 corridor and
St Johns River basin from Wednesday through Friday. For now have kept rain
chances on the low side at 20% or less as any rainfall amounts
appear light at this time. Maximum temperatures will generally be in the 80-85
degree range and lows in the 50s inland/60s coast/St Johns River
basin. No significant weather impacts expected through the period.
VFR conditions will persist this 06z taf period.
A low will move southeast of the region tonight...which
may cause a little increase in wind speeds. Otherwise...high
pressure will be the prevailing weather condition through the
weekend. High pressure ridge will move to the northeast of the
area early next week...leading to a period of onshore flow...which
will last through much of next week.
Rip currents: moderate risk through Saturday.
min relative humidity values expected to bottom out around 30% across inland southeast Georgia
and the Suwannee River valley of inland NE Florida...but will remain just
above critical levels so no headlines are expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 75 49 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
ssi 73 56 74 57 / 0 0 0 0
jax 76 53 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
sgj 75 60 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
gnv 77 51 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
ocf 79 52 77 48 / 0 0 0 0