Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
945 PM EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
Update...temperatures reached the middle 80s across the area this
afternoon with Jacksonville Airport reaching 85 degrees...one
degree shy of tying today's record. Moist southerly flow will keep
the low level moisture plentiful and it will be a very sticky
night with lows in the lower 60s. Sea fog development over the
Apalachee Bay area has been ongoing for the last several hours.
Both the hrrr and narre depict this fog and low stratus drifting
northeast into our westernmost Florida and Georgia counties. Based on this
we expect the best chances for fog development to be in and around
the I-75 corridor. Sea fog development will also be possible in
our coastal Georgia counties late tonight. Rain chances will begin to
increase tomorrow afternoon as a frontal system moves in from the
models still differ on timing and extent of IFR ceilings/visibilities in fog
impacting taf sites and will likely begin in the 06-09z time frame
and lingering until the 12-14z time frame before lifting. 2000 feet
winds tonight expect to increase SW 25-30 knots by 09-12z but will
fall just short of low level wind shear criteria.
seas 2 to 4 feet with winds decreasing to around 10 knots out of
the southwest. High pressure begins to exit as a front moves into
the area tomorrow. Flow will switch to northeast and bring our
next chance of swell.
Rip currents: low risk tonight.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 63 83 44 46 / 0 60 60 40
ssi 62 78 47 48 / 0 20 30 40
jax 63 85 52 52 / 0 10 20 30
sgj 65 82 57 57 / 0 0 20 30
gnv 63 85 57 60 / 0 0 10 10
ocf 63 85 60 66 / 0 0 10 10