Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
950 am EDT Thursday may 23 2013
Update...moderately strong shortwave trough that affected southeast Georgia
early this morning with convection is along the southeast Georgia and NE Florida
coast moving eastward. No further deep convection over the past few hours
due to outflow boundary that raced out ahead of the system helping
to stabilize the low levels. Cloud cover has already decreased
considerably.
Weak low level trough appears to develop this afternoon from NE to
SW across the County Warning Area from Brunswick to just north of Live Oak area. In
addition...prevailing westerly flow will allow low level convergence to
set up near the East Coast where a sea breeze will develop. The
combination of the two features will help to trigger convection.
Modified SBCAPE yields about 1650 j/kg and Li of -5 for 90/64.
However...low level airmass is a bit drier than yesterday and 700 mb
temperature has warmed about 2c. At this time...expect only isolated to scattered
showers and storms to develop after the 1-3 PM time frame. Storm
motion more certain than yesterday with mean flow around 280-300 degree
at 15 knots. Only a few tweaks to the forecast this morning and will leave
forecast highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with warmest temperatures inland
areas.
Tonight...any evening isolated convection expected to dissipate slowly
but may linger a bit longer over the coastal waters. More shortwave
energy in northwest flow aloft will move over the southeast Georgia zones but should
stay isolated at best at this time.
&&
Aviation...VFR will dominate. Vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity looks appropriate for tafs
this afternoon.
&&
Marine...at this time westerly around 10 knots and seas 2-3 feet. S to southeast
flow this afternoon. Seas mainly dominated by wind sea/swell with periods
of 7 seconds.
Rip currents: mainly low risk with surf about 2 feet.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 90 63 87 53 / 10 10 10 0
ssi 87 69 88 62 / 30 20 10 0
jax 89 67 89 58 / 30 20 10 0
sgj 87 70 87 66 / 30 20 10 0
gnv 91 65 91 59 / 20 10 10 0
ocf 90 66 92 61 / 20 10 10 10
&&
Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Am...none.
&&
$$
Shashy/Chase
