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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
830 am EDT Thursday Oct 2 2014

old frontal boundary south of the region across central Florida has
continued to wash out and less shower activity has been noted in the
onshore flow along the St Johns/Flagler County coastlines. Morning
soundings still show precipitation water amounts less than 1.50 inches across
southeast Georgia in the drier airmass there but still in the 1.5-1.6 inch range
across NE Florida and this will still be enough to trigger a few showers
and possibly a thunderstorm south of the I-10 corridor this
afternoon but rain chances will be held only in the 20-30% range.
Cloud cover is a bit more scattered-broken partly sunny
skies should allow maximum temperatures to reach into the lower to middle 80s
in the onshore flow along the coast/I-95 corridor while upper 80s
are possible over inland areas. Tonight...inland shower activity ends
quickly across NE Florida leaving mostly clear/partly cloudy skies with
patchy fog expected during the overnight hours. Lows again in the
60s inland and Lower-Middle 70s along the coast and St Johns River


VFR conds this morning as fog has remained generally northwest and
further inland of all taf sites. Expect scattered-broken cumulus field to develop
late this morning that could temporarily be in the MVFR range
(around 3000 feet) that could linger into early afternoon but
overall expect mainly VFR conds with less shower activity than
yesterday at NE Florida taf sites. Patchy MVFR fog chances possible again
late tonight after 06-08z with light winds and will address in the
next taf package.


northeast flow 10-15 knots will slowly become east-southeast tonight
and weaken to 10 knots or less. Seas continue to run in the 2-4 feet

Rip currents: low-end moderate risk continues with onshore flow and
weak swells impacting the beaches. Morning breaker heights along the
beaches are being reported around 2 feet.


St Mary's River minor flood wave is passing through Macclenny today
and will dampen further as it moves downstream with flooding
conditions ending by the weekend. Elevated water levels on St. Johns
River continue to slowly lessen as higher water from recent rains in
the middle/upper part of the basin slowly flush out of the system.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 88 64 86 66 / 0 0 60 60
ssi 83 71 82 69 / 0 0 50 60
jax 85 67 87 70 / 10 0 50 50
sgj 84 71 86 72 / 20 0 40 50
gnv 88 67 88 69 / 20 10 40 40
ocf 89 68 89 70 / 30 10 40 40


Jax watches/warnings/advisories...



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