Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
936 am EDT Monday Jul 28 2014

..heat advisory and slight risk of severe storms southeast Georgia...

..Record maximum mins this morning at gnv and amg...

Update...a muggy humid start to the day with strong deep layer
subsidence in place and a low level flow off of the warm Gomex.
Record maximum min temperatures were reached this morning:

Site new record previous record/year
gnv 77 76/1992
amg 78 76/2011

Both jax and ssi came within 1 degree of tying the record maximum min
temperature for the date at 79.

A few spotty showers were already breaking out over the Gulf Coast
moving inland over Marion County with increased westerly flow around
25 kts near 1000 feet above ground level per the 12z jax radiosonde observation. Visible satellite
also showed enhanced cumulus popping over the northern Suwannee River
valley. As the morning progresses...this activity will track
toward the Florida Atlantic coast while remaining mostly shallow in
nature given strong middle level capping and abundant middle level dry
air per the tae/jax radiosonde observations this morning.

As afternoon approaches...expect more popcorn showers will form across
interior southeast Georgia as instability increases. In addition to increased
mechanical forcing...there has also been deep layer destabilization
with 500 mb temperatures near -7 degree. With forecast high temperatures in the
middle/upper 90s and low/middle 70 dew addition to the sweltering
heat today there will be an increased chance for a few strong afternoon
storms...especially over southeast Georgia during the later part of the
day/early evening where frontal forcing will be strongest as the
boundary nears the Altamaha river basin through 00z. Short range
models show increased bulk shear and fat cape in the hail growth in addition to the downburst wind potential across all
zones today due to high instability and low/middle level dry
air...also believe storms will have an increased chance of
dropping hail.

850 mb temperatures were near -19 degree c...slightly warmer than yesterday.
With increased moist flow off of the Gulf today ahead of the
front...the heat advisory for today looks on track with heat
indices in the 105-110 degree range for most zones.


Aviation...prevailing VFR with tempo MVFR in showers and isolated
thunderstorms late this aftn/evening. Breezy west winds 15g20kt expected


Marine...west-southwest winds 10-15 kts today with seas 2-4 feet. Another scec
expected offshore tonight.

Rip currents: low risk today and Tuesday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 98 71 93 66 / 40 50 10 10
ssi 96 77 90 75 / 30 40 20 10
jax 97 76 93 71 / 30 30 30 20
sgj 96 78 91 74 / 20 30 40 40
gnv 94 75 93 70 / 30 30 30 20
ocf 94 76 93 71 / 30 30 50 40


Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening
for Baker-Clay-Columbia-Duval-Flagler-Hamilton-Nassau-
Putnam-St Johns-Suwannee.

Georgia...heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening
for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-coastal
Camden-coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-inland Camden-inland
Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations