Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
1002 PM EST Friday Dec 6 2013
..fog bank to spread inland from the Gulf of Mexico tonight...
unseasonably warm and moist air mass resides over the region with
current temperatures generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
set up tonight looks very much like what we saw on Tuesday night
when a fog bank from the Gulf of Mexico advected inland and across
most of our area. Much like that night...it may take most of the
night before this fog reaches the Atlantic coast.
But...nevertheless...the bulk of the high res model data suggests
that it will spread all the way to the Atlantic Ocean by around
sunrise Saturday morning. Latest satellite fog channel shows this
process already well underway with fog bank across the Florida
Panhandle heading our way. Decided to increase fog wording to
areas of dense fog...and tried to slowly time it across our County Warning Area
overnight. There will likely be some embedded patchy drizzle
within the fog bank overnight...but will just keep it as dense fog
wording for now. For the rest of the night...other than a slight
tweak up in temperatures to account for current trends...no other changes
were made since rain showers associated with approaching cold
front should remain west of the region prior to sunrise.
Showers along the cold front are expected to arrive in southeast Georgia
by late morning/early afternoon with temperatures to top out in the middle
70s across southeast Georgia before cloudiness and precipitation have a
more drastic impact on temperatures. Temperatures over NE Florida should still manage
to reach the lower 80s before cloud cover thickens later in the
Aviation...expect low clouds and fog forming near the Gulf Coast to
advect NE tonight given a low level SW flow. LIFR conditions to
develop late tonight starting around 09z and persisting until around
14z with ceilings lowering followed by visibilities lowering. VFR conditions
will return by around 15z.
Marine...southerly winds tonight up to 15 knots offshore. Combined
seas will be in 2 to 4 foot range with a easterly 2 foot swell
lingering. Areas of sea fog may develop or push into the cool near
shore waters late tonight.
Rip currents: low risk this weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 63 75 56 72 / 10 40 40 20
ssi 62 74 60 70 / 0 30 20 20
jax 62 79 60 76 / 0 20 20 10
sgj 66 77 62 76 / 10 10 20 20
gnv 62 81 58 80 / 0 10 10 10
ocf 63 81 60 80 / 10 10 10 10