Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
355 am EDT Monday Sep 22 2014
..strong to possibly severe storms this afternoon and evening
across southeast Georgia...
..onshore flow will bring wet and breezy conditions to the coast
from Tuesday through the rest of the week...
Near term.../through Tuesday/...
Forecast area will be between moisture returning from the south...
and a front approaching from the northwest today. Showers are
already pushing north into central Florida early this morning...
and this trend is expected to continue. Weak ridging near the
Florida/Georgia line will help keep this moisture from advancing much north
of kgnv today though. A cold front will slide into southeast Georgia
this afternoon...with a sharp upper trough following it. The area
ahead of this front will have a chance to destabilize this
morning into this afternoon...so a few strong to severe storms
will be possible over southeast Georgia.
The energy from the frontal boundary and the moisture from the
south are expected to converge near the Florida/Georgia line around
midnight tonight...then slowly shift southeast into Tuesday
morning. As high pressure builds to the north...onshore flow
will increase into the afternoon Tuesday...which will help
push the precipitation back over land.
Temperatures will be a challenge today. Expect area near
Florida/Georgia line to have warmest readings today...with clouds
keeping readings down a little to the south and to a lesser
extent over inland southeast Georgia. However...if the front slows at all...
readings could get into lower 90s over southeast Georgia...which would also
help to make the airmass more unstable when the front does arrive.
With cloud coverage and onshore flow increasing...expect temperatures
to be a few degrees cooler Tuesday...especially near the coast.
Wed-Thu...sharp middle/upper level trough axis just east over the coastal
waters will slowly weaken and retrograde back onshore across NE Florida &
southeast Georgia. This will help to push heavier shower activity back into the
I-95 corridor and coastal areas on Wednesday and back across the
entire forecast area on Thursday. Breezy NE flow will continue along
the coast especially from jax northward. Expect at least numerous
showers and storms along the coast with locally heavy rainfall on
Wednesday spreading back inland on Thursday and interacting more with
diurnal heating during the afternoon/evening hours. Highs will
generally be around 80 degrees along the coast and lower to middle
80s further inland. The onshore flow along the coast will combine
with the peak high tides of the new moon and water levels will be
around 1 foot above normal and expected to be just below coastal
flood levels at this time.
Fri-Mon...decaying middle/upper level trough aloft with abundant moisture
will continue wet conditions across the region and expect at least
scattered showers and storms...although with weaker onshore flow
expect more in the way of diurnal heating to drive shower and storm
activity. A bit more insolation will push maximum temperatures back into the
middle/upper 80s in most locations along with a few 90 degree readings
over inland areas. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be main
threat from slow moving storms.
Patchy light fog can be expected this morning...otherwise
prevailing VFR conditions are expected today. The combination
of a cold front approaching from the northwest and moisture
pooling from the south will result in a chance for thunderstorms
A cold front will slide southeast into area waters and dissipate
tonight into Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build north
of the region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday...with a period
of elevated onshore flow expected to last through much of the week.
Advisory conditions will be possible by Tuesday night.
Rip currents...low risk today. Risk will increase toward middle
week...with onshore flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 89 66 84 62 / 50 60 10 10
ssi 86 70 82 69 / 30 40 40 40
jax 90 70 84 68 / 20 20 50 50
sgj 85 72 82 72 / 20 20 60 60
gnv 89 69 85 66 / 20 20 40 30
ocf 88 70 85 68 / 30 40 40 40