Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
913 am EST Sat Feb 28 2015
..Nor'easter conditions along the coast through this evening...
Update...strong surface high centered to the north over
Pennsylvania this morning with inverted trough just beyond our
coastal waters. Models show trough sharpening today with winds
increasing on the northwest side. This will increase wind speeds along
the coast with the strongest winds along the southeast Georgia coastline.
Gusts up to 35 miles per hour will occur through the afternoon hours before
gradually decreasing tonight. Coastal convergence combined with an
overrunning SW flow above the shallow NE flow will produce bands
of rain today producing mostly light to moderate amounts. Locally
heavier amounts possible over NE Florida with up to around 1 inch in
any heavier bands that form. Temperatures today over southeast Georgia/NE Florida
will be cool with readings ranging from the upper 40s north to
near 60 south.
Aviation...MVFR conditions this morning will lower to IFR
conditions this afternoon/evening with LIFR late tonight. NE
winds will remain gusty especially at ssi where gusts around 30
knots this afternoon before decreasing tonight.
Marine...winds and pressure gradient will increase and peak this
afternoon as inverted trough offshore sharpens with building
strong high pressure to the north. Advisory conditions will
continue through Sunday morning near shore and through Sunday
evening offshore as seas will remain elevated longer than winds.
Rip currents: high risk this weekend with breakers of 4 to 6 feet
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 49 42 60 48 / 50 50 30 20
ssi 51 47 59 51 / 60 60 30 20
jax 54 51 67 51 / 80 60 30 10
sgj 60 57 67 55 / 80 70 30 10
gnv 59 54 73 56 / 60 40 30 10
ocf 62 58 77 58 / 60 40 30 10
Florida...high rip current risk through late tonight for coastal Duval-
coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.
Georgia...high rip current risk through late tonight for coastal Camden-
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for waters from
Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20 to
60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from 20
to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST Sunday for coastal waters
from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida
out 20 nm-coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
Beach Florida out 20 nm.