Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
215 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2014
..above normal temperatures continue through Monday...
Near term /through Sunday/...
With surface high pressure to the east...the flow will gradually
become more southerly this period. This will bring warmer and more
moist air through Sunday. As dewpoints increase will see fog and
stratus developing tonight...which could linger into the morning
hours on Sunday. Weak coastal troughing...coupled with the moist
airmass will lead to cumulus development late morning into the afternoon
Temperatures will be above average this period...with lows ranging
from the middle 50s north to middle 60s south. Highs on Sunday will range
from middle 70s north to lower 80s south.
Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday/...
Sun night...light south-southwest flow at the surface and elevated
dewpoints well into the 60s ahead of approaching front will promote
the development of fog...likely to be dense in some locations but
increasing winds above the boundary layer through the night might
prevent widespread dense fog formation...so have just kept areas of
dense fog in the grids/zone forecast product at this time. Mild overnight lows around
60 degrees are expected.
Monday & Monday night...models still differ on exact timing by 6 hours
or so but overall consensus of weak surface low tracking from the
Florida Panhandle northeast through Georgia during the day with
scattered showers and isolated storms possible...with highest probability of precipitation
across southeast Georgia with lesser rain chances across NE Florida. Rainfall amounts
still appear to be in the 1/4" to 1/2" range with isolated higher
amounts across southeast Georgia and lesser amounts south of the I-10 corridor.
Maximum temperatures should still sneak into the 70s despite the cloud cover
and rainfall chances as warm/moist southwest flow continues.
Trailing cold front will sag to near the Florida/Georgia border overnight with
lows in the middle/upper 50s across southeast Georgia and lower 60s across NE Florida.
Tuesday...trailing cold front might trigger a few isolated showers across
NE Florida during the morning hours...otherwise at least partly sunny
skies by the afternoon hours with cooler maximum temperatures in the 60s from
the I-10 corridor northward and Lower/Middle 70s south of the I-10
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Wed/Thu...high pressure builds north of the region and mainly dry
and seasonably cool conds are expected with highs generally in the
60s and lows in the 40s. The north/NE flow over the Atlantic may push a few
coastal showers into the coastal counties during this period but
rainfall chances along the I-95 corridor should remain at 20% or
Fri/Sat...next frontal system will slowly approach from the west and
moist southerly steering flow may be enough to trigger rain chances
of around 20% on Friday and 20-30% on Saturday with both GFS/Euro
showing similar solutions but differing on timing details. Maximum temperatures
will warm to around 70 Friday and well into the 70s on Saturday.
generally MVFR to VFR conditions are expected this afternoon.
Conditions will lower this evening into tonight...with IFR and lower
conditions developing. Conditions will improve back to MVFR late
high pressure will be east of area waters through Sunday...with a
weak trough near the coast. A cold front will slowly move southeast
across area waters Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will then build
in behind this front.
Rip currents: low risk.
flood wave continues to work its way through southeast Georgia river systems and
flood warnings have been posted for the Satilla river basin at
Waycross and Atkinson.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 54 75 59 72 / 10 10 20 50
ssi 57 72 61 72 / 10 10 10 40
jax 57 78 58 77 / 10 10 10 30
sgj 61 75 61 75 / 10 10 10 20
gnv 59 80 59 78 / 10 10 10 30
ocf 62 82 60 78 / 10 10 10 20