Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
237 PM EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
..isolated strong/severe storms still possible along the I-95
corridor late this afternoon and evening...
Near term (through tonight)...
Rest of this afternoon/evening...convection has been slow to
develop this afternoon with only impulse that developed near Cedar
Key in The Big Bend region on the Gulf Coast sea breeze front that
has pushed inland into western Marion County. Meanwhile the Atlantic
coast sea breeze front is moving slowly inland to near I-95 with
no activity popping yet...but this should change as outflows and
boundaries from storms to the west begin to collide with this
boundary. Still expect a few strong to severe storms with
potential damaging wind gusts of 40-60 miles per hour...with best chances for
isolated severe weather along the I-95 corridor where this
collision occurs. Activity will peak along the I-95 corridor
between 5-8pm...then push offshore and slowly weaken towards
Overnight...generally fair skies with leftover convective debris
clouds with near climatology temperatures near 70 degrees inland and lower to
middle 70s along the river/coast. Patchy fog will be possible in
areas that receive rain this afternoon/evening.
Short term (tuesday-Wednesday night)...
Tuesday/Tuesday night...a weak trough will persist over the area...in
between the western Atlantic and Gulf Coast ridges. Convection will be
mainly scattered and diurnal in nature and driven by the
afternoon seabreezes. Best coverage of storms will be near U.S.
Highway 301 late in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be
slightly above normal.
Wednesday/Wednesday night...the mean layer (1000-500 mb) western Atlantic
ridge will begin to build into the area...with ridge axis across south Georgia.
Convection will again be mainly scattered and diurnal in nature with best
coverage of storms between U.S. Highway 301 and I-75 due to a stronger
East Coast seabreeze merging with the West Coast late in the afternoon
and early evening. Maximum temperatures warm to the lower to middle 90s inland and upper
80s along the coast with the seabreeze. Heat indices may reach 105 degrees
especially across portions of southeast Georgia near the swamp.
Long term (thursday-monday)...
Thursday/Friday...the mean layer ridge will continue to build into the deep
south through the end of the week resulting in above normal temperatures along
with decreasing rain chances. Convection will be isolated to scattered
with best coverage between U.S. 301 and I-75 each afternoon.
Saturday-Monday...the mean layer ridge over the deep south will retrograde
to Texas by the end of the period. A weak surface trough over the Carolinas
will drop south over the area and be the focus for scattered mainly afternoon
and evening storms each day. Middle level impulses on the periphery of the
ridge may help enhance some storms especially by sun-Mon. Best storm coverage
will be across the inland areas. Temperatures to continue above normal with highs
in the middle 90s inland to near 90 coast.
still holding onto VFR conds early this afternoon before scattered
convection breaks out in the 20-21z time frame at local taf sites
and have narrowed tempo storm time frame to mainly the 21-23z
window at jax local taf sites...ending a bit earlier at kgnv and
ending a bit later at kssi. VFR with convective debris clouds
returns in the 00-02z time frame. Patchy fog possible at kvqq and
kgnv early Tuesday am...but not confident/significant enough to
include in current package.
high pressure ridge axis remains across or just south of the local
waters through the week. This will result in south to southwest
flow generally in the 10-15 knot range and seas 2-4 feet with no
headlines. Main impacts will be offshore moving storms into the
local waters with gusty winds during the late afternoon and
Rip currents: low risk in the offshore flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 71 94 73 94 / 20 30 30 30
ssi 75 87 76 87 / 40 20 10 10
jax 72 92 74 91 / 30 40 20 20
sgj 74 89 75 87 / 30 30 10 20
gnv 71 92 72 92 / 10 50 30 40
ocf 71 93 73 92 / 10 50 30 40