Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
930 am EDT Sat Jul 26 2014
..hot and humid with scattered storms today...
forecast remains on track as NE Florida/southeast Georgia is in faster west/SW steering
flow in between surface high pressure ridge over the southern
Florida Peninsula and old frontal boundary to the north across
Georgia and the Carolinas. Both jax/tae morning soundings show a
moist atmosphere with precipitation water amounts at 1.90 inches and with
daytime heating should see the isolated to scattered showers this
morning becoming scattered to possibly numerous storms this
afternoon as they move from west to east across the area around
15-20 miles per hour. Models pointing to most active region today to be along
the I-10 corridor of northeast Florida and along the I-95 corridor
of coastal counties as the storm activity reached the pinned Atlantic
coast sea breeze. Maximum temperatures will be a tough call as areas that get
early convection will probably be held in the lower 90s while areas
that miss any rainfall will reach into the middle 90s with heat
indices pushing into the 100-105 degree range...still just shy of
heat advisory criteria. Tonight...activity ends quickly around
sunset with fair skies and muggy/humid overnight lows in the 70s.
still mainly VFR with scattered storms during the 16z-00z time frame
and for now will keep thunderstorms in the vicinity...but short duration tempo groups will
need to be added by early afternoon with possible MVFR ceilings/visibilities
from passing storms along with gusty winds generally to 25 knots.
Activity once again will end after sunset with generally VFR conds
with scattered high clouds overnight.
southwest winds 10-15 miles per hour and seas 2-4 feet to continue in the short
term. Main impacts will continue to be offshore moving storms with
gusty winds/lightning/heavy rainfall during the afternoon and
Rip currents: low risk due to offshore flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 96 73 97 76 / 30 20 20 20
ssi 92 78 95 79 / 40 30 30 30
jax 94 73 95 76 / 50 30 30 30
sgj 91 76 94 77 / 50 40 30 30
gnv 93 73 95 74 / 40 20 30 20
ocf 93 73 94 74 / 30 20 30 20