Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
219 am EST Wednesday Nov 26 2014
Short term /through Thanksgiving day/...
a surface cold front/low pressure extends from offshore the middle
Atlantic coast southwest across north-central Florida to the
eastern Gulf. A line of moderate/locally heavy rains accompany the
frontal boundary as the surface low is beginning to eject to the
NE. Further off to the northwest...a shield of light rain prevails
in association with a middle level shortwave...mainly affecting
interior southeast Georgia overnight. In between...very light rain and drizzle
prevail across most of NE Florida. With the heavy precipitation to the
south...will cancel the Flood Watch for north-central Florida.
The front will continue to exit into South Florida this morning
as surface low pressure intensifies across the Middle Atlantic
States. The middle level shortwave will cross the area this
morning...ejecting NE this afternoon. Will use high probability of precipitation through the
morning hours for most areas for mainly light rain...with
perhaps some lingering moderate rain across north-central Florida.
Precipitation will rapidly decrease this afternoon as the system moves
into the mid-Atlantic/northeast Continental U.S.. in the wake of the
front...winds will increase this morning with breezy/locally
windy conditions...especially near the coast. However...think
speeds will remain under advisory criteria. Do not expect much
of a warmup today as cold advection works in behind the front
with highs mainly in the lower 60s.
Mainly clear skies will prevail tonight/Thanksgiving day as high
pressure builds in. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s/around
40 inland with middle/upper 40s coast. Sunny...breezy and cool
conditions will prevail Thanksgiving day...with highs in the
upper 50s/around 60 for southeast Georgia and Lower/Middle 60s for NE Florida.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
high pressure will build northwest of the region Thursday night with
cooler air filtering south. Expecting lows near freezing away from
the immediate coast. High pressure will build to the north with
temperatures remaining below normal despite sunshine. As the high
slides toward the southeastern US coast...the flow will begin to
turn onshore Friday night. Temperatures will again be near
freezing further inland...and milder near the coast.
High pressure will become centered just northeast of the region
on Saturday and remain through Tuesday. Expect this period to
remain largely dry...but primarily coastal showers cannot be ruled
out later in the period. Temperatures return to near normal
readings Saturday...with readings above normal Sunday through
IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail through the middle morning hours
in mainly light rain. Conditions will improve late morning to
MVFR...with VFR in the afternoon/tonight as skies scattered/clear out.
Winds will increase by sunrise...with northwest winds 12-17 knots with
gusts to 20-25 knots late morning/aftn....decreasing by evening.
winds will increase in the wake of a cold front...with Small Craft Advisory
conditions for all waters into early afternoon...with conditions
remaining Small Craft Advisory offshore through Thursday night. Occasional gusts to
gale force will be possible offshore today as low pressure
intensifies just to the north of the waters. Conditions will
improve Friday to under Small Craft Advisory...with a light wind regime for the
weekend as high pressure settles over the area.
Rip currents: moderate risk today with residual long period
easterly swell and elevated surf. Low risk Thursday with
offshore flow and reduced surf.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 59 40 58 34 / 60 0 0 0
ssi 59 44 59 38 / 60 0 0 0
jax 61 40 61 34 / 60 0 0 0
sgj 60 43 63 41 / 60 0 0 0
gnv 61 39 63 34 / 60 0 0 0
ocf 63 39 65 35 / 60 0 0 0
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Friday for Altamaha Sound Georgia
to Fernandina Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore-Fernandina
Beach to St Augustine Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore-St
Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Altamaha
Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida out 20 nm-Fernandina Beach
to St Augustine Florida out 20 nm-St Augustine to Flagler Beach
Florida out 20 nm.