Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
201 PM EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014



Near term.../through tonight/...

Cumulus clouds will continue to develop this afternoon...with
western and eastern sea breeze interactions enhancing shower
potential...especially over central Florida counties. The cumulus
clouds will dissipate quickly after sunset...with loss of daytime
heating. Fog is expected to develop again overnight...with
lingering low level moisture. Expect high cloudiness to advect in
tonight as well ahead of approaching cold front.

Short term.../Friday through Sunday night/...

Friday will remain mostly dry as weak surface low treks off to our
north with limited lift and moisture over our area to support any
rain chances. Skies will remain mostly sunny during the morning
becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon with winds out of the
southwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Temperatures will rise up into the middle 80s and
drop into the upper 50s/low 60s in southeast Georgia and low 60s in NE
Florida.

Saturday through Sunday night...high pressure will build in for
the weekend leaving conditions dry and skies mostly to partly
sunny. Maximum temperatures will be in the middle/upper 80s all weekend with
lows Saturday night right around 60 degrees and Sunday night in the
low/middle 60s.

Long term.../Monday through Wednesday night/...

Low level moisture will increase beginning early next week as
upper ridge weakens allowing isolated...afternoon convection to
develop on Monday. Surface low strengthens as it moves over the Ohio
River valley on Tuesday and Wednesday with associated cold front
projected to pass through our area Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Precipitation chances and sky cover will increase Tuesday and Wednesday with the
approach and passing of this boundary with conditions looking to
improve by Thursday morning. Maximum temperatures will be warm in the middle to
upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. Nighttime temperatures will be mild in the
middle/upper 60s.

&&

Aviation...
prevailing VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through
early tonight. Sea breeze interactions are expected to lead to a
few showers this afternoon...mainly inland. Fog is expected to
develop again overnight...with locally dense fog possible toward
dawn. The best potential for dense fog will be at kvqq/kgnv. A
weak cold front will move southeast across the region on Friday.
While the passage of this boundary is expected to be dry...a
period of MVFR clouds are anticipated.

&&

Marine...
a broad high pressure ridge will move east of the region on
Friday...as a cold front approaches from the west. This boundary
is expected to weaken as it crosses area waters Friday night.
Another broad ridge of high pressure will then build in for the
weekend. A stronger cold front is expected to affect area waters
during the middle part of next week.

Rip currents:low risk through Friday.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 60 85 59 85 / 20 10 10 0
ssi 64 82 64 79 / 10 10 10 0
jax 63 85 60 84 / 10 10 10 10
sgj 65 84 63 80 / 10 10 10 10
gnv 60 85 62 86 / 20 0 10 10
ocf 60 85 60 87 / 20 0 10 10

&&

Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Am...none.
&&

$$

Guillet/Struble/Nelson