Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
957 PM EDT Monday Aug 3 2015
Update...surface analysis was showing a surface low over
southeast Georgia with a trough axis extending into northeast
Florida. This trough was the Focal Point for strong storms with
heavy rain across areas of the south. Nearly 5 inches of rain
along with flooding was reported just southwest of Gainesville
this evening. These rains will continue to subside through midnight.
With low and trough axis meandering over the area tonight...will
keep probability of precipitation going across the far south and southeast zones.
Southeast Georgia will be mainly dry with isolated storms ending
Aviation...occasional low end MVFR visibility and ceilings expected at taf sites
through the late evening hours. Most of the evening convection
expected from gnv to sgj where IFR visibility are expected at times.
Currently anticipate that MVFR ceilings may prevail overnight
with occasional VFR possible. Additional showers may also persist
near the surface trough over NE Florida and southeast Georgia. Low ceilings may be slower
to break out along the southeast Georgia coast per latest hrrr model
guidance near the surface low. There is a chance for storms to
develop Tuesday afternoon due to diurnal heating and lingering surface
trough across central part of forecast area with vicinity thunderstorm in
taf forecast at this time.
Marine...tight gradient from surface trough will maintain
Small Craft Advisory conditions for the offshore waters
tonight...with an exercise caution near shore.
Rip currents: low risk.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 74 97 74 95 / 20 20 20 30
ssi 76 93 75 88 / 40 30 30 30
jax 74 92 75 92 / 40 50 30 50
sgj 75 89 74 89 / 80 50 30 40
gnv 73 90 72 89 / 80 40 30 40
ocf 74 89 72 89 / 80 40 30 30
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Tuesday for waters from
Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20 to
60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from 20
to 60 nm.