Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
320 PM EDT sun may 24 2015
Near term /through tonight/...
the morning sounding at kjax came in even drier than yesterday.
Water vapor imagery also showed fairly strong subsidence aloft due
to pronounced upper ridge axis over the area. This has resulted in
dry conditions thus far today. Nevertheless...the combination of
the coastal trough just offshore and diurnal heating over land
will continue to support a low chance of isolated showers across
portions of NE Florida north of a line from Gainesville to St
Augustine. Chances will be a little higher (30-50%) across our
southern zones where scattered showers and a few storms will be
possible late this afternoon. The coastal trough will move closer
to the coast this evening and a few isolated light showers may
clip the coastal land zones this evening...otherwise mostly dry
conditions will prevail with partly cloudy skies with occasional
mostly cloudy conditions along the coast.
Short term.../Monday through Wednesday night/...
Persistent surface pattern with high pressure ridge to the
east/northeast will continue through this period.
With the resultant onshore flow...expect a few coastal showers.
Afternoon instability coupled with convergence along West
Coast sea breeze could lead to convection near the Interstate 75
corridor for Monday. An upper trough will approach from the
northwest Tuesday...which will help to further destabilize the
inland portion of the region.
Expect temperatures to be near to slightly above normal this
Long term.../Thursday through Sunday/...
The surface ridge remains east/northeast of the region this
period...weakening through the week. The upper trough dissipates
With fairly weak onshore flow expected...convection initiation
will be driven by diurnally enhanced sea breeze boundaries. Will
focus low end precipitation chances inland.
Temperatures will trend near to slightly above normal this period.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Stratocu ceilings may
however occasionally fall just below 3k feet this afternoon and
evening but lack of confidence in timing and duration preclude the
inclusion in the tafs at this time.
scec headlines will continue through this evening to account for
easterly winds around 15 to 20 knots and seas of 4 to 6 feet.
Easterly flow will continue through the week with conditions
generally remaining below headline criteria with the exception of
a brief period of scec conditions possible in nocturnal surges
in the evening periods during the first part of the week.
Rip currents: high risk.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 68 89 70 88 / 10 10 10 20
ssi 74 84 75 84 / 20 30 10 10
jax 70 87 70 87 / 20 10 10 10
sgj 75 84 74 84 / 20 10 10 10
gnv 69 91 70 89 / 20 20 20 30
ocf 70 91 71 88 / 20 20 20 30
Florida...high rip current risk through Monday evening for coastal Duval-
coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.
Georgia...high rip current risk through Monday evening for coastal Camden-