Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
143 PM EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
..above normal temperatures again Thursday then much cooler Friday...
Near term...this afternoon and tonight...
A few sprinkles will be possible this afternoon under an
expansive cumulus field but organized showers are not expected
given abundant middle level dry air. Breezy south-southwest winds will back
slightly south-southeast along the East Coast today as the East Coast sea
breeze develops but makes little progress inland due to deep layer
SW flow. High temperatures were on track to rise to near record record
values in the middle 80s inland to near 80 coast.
Expansive areas of low status and advective sea fog are expected
to overspread the local area tonight from the Gulf of Mexico where
visible satellite already showed pockets of sea fog forming in
Apalachee Bay. Fog will edge inland this afternoon but with
heating will be lifted into the cumulus field. By evening as temperatures
cool...the fog and stratus are expected to drift inland from SW to
NE through sunrise. Partly cloudy skies this evening will become
mostly cloudy as the stratus overspreads the area. A dense fog
advisory may be needed for portions of the area if dense fog
becomes widespread in nature. Min temperatures will cool only into the
A warm day Thursday then much cooler Friday & Sat with low chances of
After morning fog lifts between 9-11 am...another near record
warmth day expected Thursday under breezy west-southwest winds in advance of an
approaching sheared out cold front.
Rain chances will increase from the northwest near the Altamaha river
basin Thursday afternoon then as upper level dynamics eject to the NE of the
region...the frontal zone and precipitation field will shift slowly
southward Thursday night through Friday bringing mainly a chance of
passing light showers through the period. There is a low chance
of isolated thunderstorms across inland southeast Georgia Thursday afternoon due to increased
instability phased with weak upper level forcing. Tstorm potential
will decrease Thursday evening as insolation is lost and the front sags
southward toward NE Florida where it will begin to stall. Fog will
likely form again Thursday night into Friday morning as the frontal zone
lingers over the area with a much cooler airmass bringing lows in
the 40s over southeast Georgia by daybreak Friday morning to the 50s over much of
Friday temperatures will not moderate much from morning lows given widespread
cloudiness and cool north-northeast flow with a continuation of shower activity.
Friday night the frontal zone is bridged by surface high pressure building
eastward from the lower MS River Valley...which shunts the moisture
field and cooler temperatures farther south over the remainder of NE Florida with
lows Friday night in the upper 30s near the Altamaha river basin to lower
50s toward Ocala.
Sat drier air finally infiltrates from the north through the day
with mostly sunny skies for southeast Georgia by midday with highs in the
upper 50s to low 60s. The cloud cover will become partly cloudy
over NE Florida where highs will near the low/middle 60s.
An unsettled weather pattern is expected next week as the frontal
zone meanders over north-central Florida without any strong upper level
dynamics to eject the system southward. Will continue with a low
chance of passing showers each period and temperatures rebounding from
near to slightly below normal with lows moderating into the 50s
early next week and highs in the 70s by Wednesday.
Scattered to broken cumulus field has developed across the area this
morning and is expected to remain VFR through this evening with
winds out of the south to southwest at 10-15 kts gusting around 20
kts. Low ceilings and br are expected to settle in late tonight
through early tomorrow morning. Have kept low end IFR conditions
in the 18z package with mediocre confidence in LIFR ceilings tonight.
However...LIFR ceilings may need to be added in future update as low
cloud deck moves into the area from the west.
High pressure will exit to the east today into Thursday. Based on
recent trends...will drop the exercise caution for the offshore
waters tonight and carry seas 3-5 feet under south winds 15 kts.
A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday and will
push southward over the waters Thursday night. Winds and seas will
increase in the wake of the front Friday and Saturday. Winds and
seas will subside Sunday as high pressure over the Gulf Coast
region builds in from the west.
Rip currents: low risk today and Thursday. Increased risk Friday and Sat
due to onshore flow.
High pressure will gradually shift east of the region as a
weakening cold front approaches from the northwest late Thursday
afternoon. Breezy and warm temperatures will continue Thursday. A
low chance of thunderstorms is possible over inland southeast Georgia Thursday
afternoon. Passing showers and cooler conditions are expected Thursday
night into Friday as the cold front pushes south of the area.
Record highs for today and Thursday...
jax 86 (1997)87 (1997)
gnv 89 (1997)87 (1997)
amg 86 (1961)87 (1969)
ssi 85 (1953) 83 (1985)
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 63 83 44 46 / 0 60 60 40
ssi 62 78 47 48 / 0 20 30 40
jax 63 85 52 52 / 0 10 20 30
sgj 65 82 57 57 / 0 0 20 30
gnv 63 85 57 60 / 0 0 10 10
ocf 63 85 60 66 / 0 0 10 10