Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
907 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016
..breezy to windy through Wednesday with below normal
..freezing temperatures and low wind chills expected Wednesday
currently...a strong cold front located near the Florida/Georgia border is
making its way southward through the area with isolated to scattered
light to moderate showers. This will continue to affect NE Florida and
coastal southeast Georgia through around midnight when any remaining activity
pushes south of the area or out into the coastal waters.
Southwesterly winds will remain elevated ahead of the front
between 10-15 miles per hour but shift to the northeast and decrease to 5-10
miles per hour once the front passes. Colder air will filter in behind the
front with low temperatures in the middle 30s expected across interior southeast
Georgia and the Suwannee Valley and upper 30s to low 40s for our
southern counties and coastal zones. Winds will make these temperatures
feel even colder early Tuesday morning with wind chills in the
middle/upper 20s across inland southeast Georgia and low/middle 30s elsewhere.
Aviation...fast moving cold front will will continue to sweep
across the area this evening. Most of the scattered shower activity
has moved east but there will be spotty light rain at sgj until around
04z. Otherwise prevailing VFR ceilings (around 5000 to 10000 ft) with
west-northwest winds 15kts with gusts to 25 kts.
cold front will continue to push southward through the coastal
waters overnight exiting to the south by early tomorrow morning.
Winds will shift from southwest to northwest as it passes
accompanied by isolated to scattered showers and very isolated
embedded lightning strikes. Elevated west to northwesterly winds
and rough seas will continue through Wednesday as high pressure
builds in behind exiting surface low pressure warranting Small Craft Advisory in the
nearshore waters through at least late Tuesday night. Current Gale
Warning GOES through Tuesday afternoon but may be extended into
Tuesday night as confidence increases in the probability of
frequent gusts to gale force being present.
Rip currents:low to moderate risk expected on Tuesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 35 48 27 49 / 50 0 0 0
ssi 40 51 30 50 / 50 0 0 0
jax 39 55 28 54 / 30 0 0 0
sgj 42 55 32 55 / 30 0 0 0
gnv 39 55 30 57 / 20 0 0 0
ocf 40 56 32 58 / 20 0 0 0
Florida...freeze watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-coastal Duval-coastal
inland Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.
Am...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for waters from Altamaha
Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from 20 to 60
Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EST Wednesday for coastal waters
from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida
out 20 nm-coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
Beach Florida out 20 nm.