Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
919 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2014
a mean layer ridge (1000-500 mb) is over the area this morning and
will begin to nudge northward later today. Surface analysis shows a weak
trough bisecting the surface ridge from near the St. Marys River to
along the Georgia coast. Morning soundings show deep moisture over
the region...although kjax still has some dry air above 550 mb...and
precipitable waters are 1.8 to 2 inches. Light winds with high pressure
overhead...afternoon highs in the low/middle 90s and abundant moisture
will help produce scattered storms by afternoon. A light steering
flow will allow both the Atlantic and Gulf Coast southeast breezes to move
slowly inland. Best coverage for convection will be over the
interior along the sea breezes. Hi-res models show the sbrz
boundaries colliding between I-75 and Highway 301 by evening. Loss of
heating after sunset will cause the activity to wind down quickly.
scattered showers/thunderstorms and rain are expected across inland areas this afternoon
with best coverage around gnv. Have thunderstorms in the vicinity at gnv beginning at 18z
although amendments for IFR due to ts possible at gnv between 18z-
24z. Have thunderstorms in the vicinity at remaining NE Florida terminals between 20z-24z. The
scattered thunderstorms and rain activity will end during the evening with loss of heating
and have vcsh at all NE Florida terminals between 00z-03z. For ssi
have prevailing VFR.
no headlines. A light SW to south flow is noted over the waters
except winds may turn to southeast near the Altamaha Sound as a weak
trough crosses Georgia waters. Seas are around 2 feet this morning.
Rip currents: a lingering east-southeast swell and afternoon onshore flow
will warrant a moderate risk of rip currents through the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 95 72 94 72 / 40 30 40 30
ssi 88 77 89 77 / 20 20 30 20
jax 92 74 92 74 / 40 30 30 20
sgj 89 75 89 75 / 30 30 30 20
gnv 92 72 92 72 / 50 50 50 40
ocf 92 73 93 73 / 50 50 50 30