Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
239 PM EDT sun Apr 20 2014

Short term /through Tuesday/...
low pressure continues to gradually eject to the NE offshore the
SC coast. Persistent low level moisture/clouds plague the area this
afternoon...resulting in temperatures struggling to reach 60 for most
of southeast Georgia...with Lower/Middle 60s for NE Florida. The low will push to the NE
across the western Atlantic tngt/Monday. Persistent low level
moisture/clouds will begin to erode tonight...with breaks in the cloud
cover overnight...and more rapid clearing on Monday. In the wake
of the low tonight...below normal lows of 50 to 55 inland and 55 to 60
coast will prevail. Under low amplitude ridging and significantly
more sun Monday...highs will warm to near normal values.

Monday night...high pressure settles in over the area from the Gulf
Coast providing light winds and mostly clear skies. Patchy fog is
possible late at night across the inland areas of NE Florida.

Tuesday...warm west to SW winds out ahead of approaching cold front will
help push maximum temperatures into the lower to middle 80s across most locales
and even to near 80 at the beaches before a weak seabreeze moves in.
Will have increasing clouds late in the day.

Tuesday night...a cold front will move rapidly southeast across the area
producing a few showers across southeast Georgia and possibly into extreme NE
Florida as upper forcing will be weak. Air mass behind front not that
much cooler with lows in the upper 50s inland to lower 60s along the

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
mostly dry and near to above climatology temperatures expected. Wednesday a diffuse
frontal zone will linger over north-central Florida as surface high pressure
bridges the boundary to the north...with local onshore flow
developing. Thursday indicated a low 15-20% of coastal showers during the
morning then 20% inland toward the I-75 corridor in the afternoon with a
coastal trough scenario possible as the high settles over the NC/SC
coast and shifts low level Atlantic moisture inland. Friday the surface
ridge axis will settle over north-central Florida with dry weather expected...then
Sat/sun advertised a low 15-20% of mainly afternoon/evening showers/isolated
thunderstorms as a weakening surface front and sheared out upper level
trough slide over the deep south and interact with the sea breezes.
Temperatures will warm into the middle 80s inland by the weekend inland to
near 80 coast with min temperatures in the low/middle 60s.


Aviation...MVFR ceilings will continue through tonight due to
wrap-around low level moisture from departing low pressure off the
southeast U.S. Coast. Will also have spotty light rain and drizzle
at jax...crg...and ssi. Conditions will begin to improve to VFR
Monday morning after 14z.


with the offshore buoys all under 30 knots gusts...and the maximum
pressure gradient expected to loosen beginning this evening...will
cancel the Gale Warning for the offshore waters...replacing it
with a Small Craft Advisory. Winds will decrease significantly Monday...however
seas will remain elevated through Monday night offshore. Expect
conditions under Small Craft Advisory for Tuesday through the end of the week.

Rip currents: high risk through Monday with continue onshore flow
and elevated surf of 3-5 feet.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 49 77 51 82 / 0 0 10 20
ssi 54 69 56 78 / 10 0 0 10
jax 54 77 53 83 / 10 0 0 10
sgj 59 71 56 79 / 10 0 10 10
gnv 54 80 54 83 / 0 0 0 10
ocf 55 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 10


Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for Duval-
Flagler-Nassau-St Johns.

Georgia...high rip current risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for coastal
Camden-coastal Glynn.

Am...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Tuesday for Altamaha Sound
Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore-
Fernandina Beach to St Augustine Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore-
St Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EDT Monday for Altamaha Sound Georgia
to Fernandina Beach Florida out 20 nm-Fernandina Beach to St
Augustine Florida out 20 nm-St Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida out
20 nm.