Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
215 am EST Friday Nov 27 2015
..significant coastal impacts through Saturday including high surf
and high risk of rip currents...
Near term...today and tonight...strong surface ridge to the north
will weaken through tonight. The pressure gradient will gradually
weaken along with wind speeds. Isolated coastal showers will
gradually taper off by late tonight as moisture convergence
decreases. Ridging aloft will keep temperatures warm with highs
today ranging from the lower 70s coast to near 80 degrees inland.
MOS guidance(mav and lamp) shows fog developing tonight as winds
drop off away from the coast.
Short term...Saturday through Sunday...high pressure ridge to the
north continues to slowly weaken and this will allow winds to back
to the northeast with lesser wind speeds although it will remain
breezy along the coast at 15-20 miles per hour both days with 10-15 miles per hour speeds
inland. Still enough onshore flow to continue isolated to widely
scattered showers over the coastal waters and into the coastline at
times. Highs will range from near 70 degrees along the coast to well
into the 70s over inland areas...still above normal for late Nov.
Lows generally in the 50s inland and 60s along the coast.
Long term...Monday through Friday...
Mon-Wed...mild temperatures will continue with mainly dry conds and slight
chances of showers mainly along the coast in the weakening onshore
flow that becomes light and variable by Wednesday. Highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s/60s.
Thu-Fri...models indicating isentropic lift rainfall event as high
pressure builds north of the region again and pressures fall over
the Florida Peninsula in response to middle level energy/shortwave
moving out of the eastern Gomex. Will be the best chance of area-wide
precipitation in the upcoming week. Still too early to determine any specific
rainfall amounts. Cooler temperatures expected with highs in the 60s and
lows in the 40s/50s and a return to breezy/windy northeast flow
impacting the coastal areas.
Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail today except for early
morning patchy fog/low clouds which will produce areas of IFR until
around 14z. NE winds will increase after sunrise with gusts to 20+
knots near the East Coast.
Marine...onshore winds will gradually decrease the next few days
as high pressure wedge and gradient weakens. Seas will be slower
to decrease as swells/wind waves keep seas elevated into Tuesday.
Advisory conditions expected over the waters until Monday morning
near shore and until Tuesday morning offshore.
Rip currents: high risk will continue through the weekend.
Coastal hazards: strong onshore winds and elevated seas will
produce breakers near 7 feet along the NE Florida beaches and will
extend high surf advisory through Saturday. Extended coastal
Flood Advisory through saturdays high tide cycle due to minor
flooding/beach erosion expected near the times of high tides.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 75 52 75 50 / 20 0 0 0
ssi 71 59 71 57 / 10 10 10 10
jax 75 59 74 55 / 20 10 10 0
sgj 75 64 74 62 / 40 40 20 10
gnv 78 58 76 55 / 20 10 10 0
ocf 78 59 78 57 / 10 10 10 0
Florida...high rip current risk through late Saturday night for coastal
Duval-coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for Clay-coastal
Duval-coastal Nassau-Flagler-inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.
High surf advisory until 4 am EST Sunday for coastal Duval-
coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.
Georgia...high rip current risk through late Saturday night for coastal
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for coastal
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Tuesday for waters from
Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20 to
60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from 20
to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Monday for coastal waters
from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida
out 20 nm-coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
Beach Florida out 20 nm.