Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
904 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014
a surface cold front continues to move south...just north of the
Altamaha river mid-evening. Pre-frontal showers/thunderstorms have
diminished in coverage and intensity...thus have cancelled the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Isolated to scattered activity continues close
to the frontal boundary extending from interior southeast Georgia to just west
of the Suwannee Valley. The latest high resolution models show
activity decreasing a little...but at least some activity will
likely continue in southeast Georgia this evening moving into northern Florida by
the overnight as the boundary begins to hang up. Will use isolated
to low end scattered probability of precipitation for most of NE Florida late evening into the
overnight...with some increase late south of jax as the boundary
hangs up. Precipitation will end across most of southeast Georgia after midnight as
the boundary moves into the south. Given some residual bulk
layer shear...an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out for the
next couple of hours across southeast Georgia into the Suwannee Valley. Clouds
and some wind will keep temperatures warm through the
overnight...with lows mainly in the middle 70s.
a cold front will move into southeast Georgia tonight. A few showers and
storms will be possible along and ahead of this boundary tonight.
The coverage and intensity of the storms associated with this
boundary have weakened considerably over the last few hours...and
at this time it looks like the coverage of any storms tonight will
The cold front will stall over northeast Florida tonight...then
linger through the day Tuesday. Therefore the best chance for any
afternoon convection Tuesday will be at kgnv.
SW winds will remain elevated over the waters tonight as a cold front
moves into the waters. Will continue the caution for the outer legs
with 15 knots nearshore.
Rip currents: low risk through Tuesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 73 90 65 93 / 30 10 10 10
ssi 76 91 74 89 / 30 10 10 10
jax 75 92 71 92 / 20 20 10 10
sgj 77 91 74 90 / 30 40 20 10
gnv 75 92 69 93 / 30 40 20 10
ocf 75 92 71 94 / 30 50 30 10