Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
941 am EDT Friday may 24 2013 


..breezy and warm today... 


Update...a cold front is analyzed over the central portion of 
the forecast area and is expected to push southward through the day into 
north central Florida. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies 
except for thin cirrus. Some fog and low clouds dissipated about 8 
am over Marion County and southern Putnam. Deep northwesterly flow and low relative humidity 
will maintain a dry weather forecast today and mostly sunny conditions 
expected with just occasional scattered cumulus in the afternoon. No rain expected. 
Warm maximum temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 S zones. Middle 80s 
possible along the coast from St Augustine southward where north to NE winds 
are expected in the afternoon bringing in some maritime air. 


Tonight...(previous discussion) cooler with temperatures falling into the 
50s inland as high pressure builds north of the region and dry 
northerly drainage flow filters in over the local area. Temperatures will 
near record mins for the date in a few locales including jax. Fog 
not expected despite clear skies and calm winds since airmass will 
be dry 


&& 


Aviation...VFR. Northwesterly winds 10-15 knots with occasional gusts 20-25 knots. 
Winds expected to weaken by 00z to 10 knots or less. 


&& 


Marine...northerly flow around 10-15 knots today with seas 2-4 feet. As 
strong high pressure around 1030 miles per hour builds over the Ohio Valley tonight... 
north-NE winds expected to pick up to 15-20 knots with seas up to 5 feet 
offshore...slightly lower nearshore. 


Rip currents: low risk today due to surf near 1-2 feet. 


&& 


Fire weather...maringal red flag wrnng remains in effect for 
Suwannee Valley area for low relative humidity...winds near 15 miles per hour and erc values 
around 27-30. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 87 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 
ssi 85 61 74 62 / 0 0 0 0 
jax 89 57 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 
sgj 87 64 76 60 / 0 0 0 0 
gnv 90 58 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 
ocf 91 60 85 58 / 10 0 0 0 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...red flag warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this 
evening for Baker-Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Suwannee- 
Union. 


Georgia...none. 
Am...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Shashy/Walker