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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
421 am EST sun Jan 25 2015

Short term...
today...pleasant weather expected today with chilly morning temperatures
warming into the low 60s across much of the area this afternoon
under clear skies. High pressure situated over the Gomex and Florida
Peninsula will move off to the south today as surface boundary
progresses towards the area allowing winds to shift from northwest
to southwest this afternoon at 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Tonight...middle level trough will dip down over the Tennessee Valley
overnight with surface low and associated cold front making its way
south across the region. Low level moisture will increase from
the west this evening with forcing along frontal boundary
increasing chances for isolated to scattered showers around
midnight. Rainfall will move in from the Gulf spreading eastward
through early Monday morning when front makes its exit. Highest
chances will remain over NE Florida with a majority of the rainfall
expected to remain light. With increased clouds and SW flow low
temperatures will come up to near normal in the low to middle 40s
across southeast Georgia and middle to upper 40s for much of NE Florida.

Monday through Tuesday... the cold front will exit to the south
early Monday...with any residual showers south of jax ending in
the morning hours and clearing occurring in the afternoon. Cool and
breezy/locally windy conditions will prevail in the wake of the
front...with highs Monday in the upper 50s to around 60. A chilly
night is expected Monday night with lows of 35-40 inland with
lower 40s coast. Sunny skies will prevail Tuesday under high
pressure. Winds will not be quite as strong...but remaining
locally breezy along the coast. Highs Tuesday will be similar to

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... deep layer
troughing over the eastern Continental U.S. Midweek will deamplify late
week...resulting in a slight warming trend to near normal. Weak
impulses may clip the area in zonal flow Wednesday/Thursday...but
with very limited moisture/dynamics...will leave precipitation out of the
forecast. Models continue to diverge Friday into the weekend...with
European model (ecmwf) showing a cold front crossing the area Friday...and the GFS
much weaker with the front hanging it up across South Florida over
the weekend. Will not make significant changes to the forecast for
now...depicting a mainly dry forecast.


VFR conditions will prevail through late tonight. Lows ceilings could
become an issue around midnight at Duval sites and gnv as isolated
to scattered showers move into the area.


northwesterly winds will continue to decrease this morning before
shifting to the southwest this afternoon ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary which will pass through the area by early
Monday. This will begin an increase in winds Sunday night up to
Small Craft Advisory criteria by Monday morning for the offshore
waters and scec conditions in the nearshore. This will continue
through early Wednesday when high pressure begins to build in at
the surface.

Rip currents: low risk of rip currents through Monday.


Fire weather...
breezy/locally windy conditions in the wake of a cold front Monday
and Tuesday will result in elevated dispersion values. Relative humidity values
will remain above critical no red flag conditions


Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 62 43 57 37 / 0 20 10 0
ssi 58 47 57 38 / 0 30 20 0
jax 62 45 60 36 / 0 40 20 0
sgj 61 49 59 39 / 0 30 20 0
gnv 64 46 60 36 / 0 40 10 0
ocf 65 48 62 38 / 0 40 20 0


Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 7 am Monday to 10 am EST Wednesday for
waters from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from
20 to 60 nm-waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm.




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