Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
345 am EDT sun Sep 21 2014
Near term.../through Monday/...
Low will continue to pull northeast away from the region this
morning...with drier air advecting in from the northwest. Moisture
will begin to move up from the south late in the day...associated
with a lingering trough over the central part of the state. The
region will be pinched between this trough to the south...and an
advancing cold front from the north Sunday night. This cold front
will move into southeast Georgia Monday afternoon...with an upper low pivoting
in behind it. Have trimmed maximum temperatures back on Monday to account for
cloud and precipitation coverage.
Tue-Wed...high pressure building down the East Coast will reach the
region on Tuesday with showers and embedded storms developing along
the coast along with breezy northeast flow at 15-25 miles per hour. Maximum temperatures
will top out in the Lower/Middle 80s along the coast and upper 80s
well inland. Locally heavy rainfall threat along the coast will
continue into Wednesday as coastal trough develops and stationary rain
band may set-up along the NE Florida/southeast Georgia coast somewhere by the Tuesday
night/Wednesday time frame and expect widespread 1-2 inch rainfall
totals along the I-95 corridor with isolated storm totals for the
week in the 3-5 inch range. Maximum temperatures will only be around 80 degrees
along the coast Wednesday and in the Lower/Middle 80s further inland.
Thursday into the weekend...models in general agreement that a wet period
will continue as onshore flow continues out of the east/southeast as the
coastal trough breaks down and moves inland. The surface flow will
slowly weaken and expect rainfall activity that was focused along
the coast early in the week will shift inland late in the week and
become more diurnal in nature as highs in the Lower/Middle 80s on
Thursday/Friday increase into the upper 80s/near 90 by the weekend.
With the exception of the potential for patchy light fog this
morning...prevailing VFR conditions are expected this 06z taf
period...as drier air advects in from the northwest.
Winds and waves will continue to decrease this morning as the low
moves off to the northeast. Weak ridging will be over area waters
today through early Monday. A cold front will approach area waters
from the northwest and dissipate Monday night into Tuesday. High
pressure will then build north of the region toward middle week...
starting a period of enhanced onshore flow.
Rip currents: will continue moderate risk today with wind coming
down...but waves still somewhat elevated.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 87 66 87 65 / 0 0 30 30
ssi 83 71 85 72 / 0 0 20 20
jax 85 67 88 69 / 0 10 20 20
sgj 83 70 85 73 / 0 10 20 20
gnv 85 66 86 68 / 0 10 30 30
ocf 86 68 87 69 / 20 20 40 40