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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
815 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016

Update...strong high pressure is building across the region tonight
with clear skies prevailing. Temperatures will fall into the upper
20s in the north to around 40 in the south. The current forecast is
on track and no updates are needed at this time./15/

Short term...tonight through this weekend...the cold front which
has been ever-so-gradually oozing south through the County Warning Area over the
past 36 hours has finally cleared entirely south of the I-20
corridor...and should push south of southern zones tonight. Ahead of
the front conditions have once again been unseasonably warm with
highs mainly in the 70 to 75 degree range. North of the boundary
temperatures have been a little more typical of early February...but
still by no means frigid. Chillier air coming south now more freely
in the northwest flow pattern will make for a much more seasonably
chilly day across all areas tomorrow...despite a fair amount of
sunshine. Conditions will be quite dry tomorrow afternoon from a
humidity perspective...but temperatures cool enough and winds light
enough to keep fire danger from getting out of hand (although it is
an aspect of the forecast we will be monitoring closely in later
updates).

Gradually increasing clouds and return flow will start on Saturday
night which will keep temperatures from getting as chilly as they
otherwise might (although anticipated lows in the middle to upper 20s
in many central and southern zones will be quite cold enough for
many). This return flow will start lifting a warm front back north
through the region through the latter half of Sunday...resulting in
a warmer afternoon than will be the case tomorrow. A few more clouds
will be around as well Sunday afternoon although any slight rain
shower chances before dark should be confined to mainly far
west/northwest zones.

A vigorous weather disturbance beginning to approach the lower MS
valley from the west Sunday night will start to initiate showers
(especially in northwestern zones) across the area as early as middle
to late evening. After midnight there could be enough combined
atmospheric lift and instability to spark a few embedded
thunderstorms although the risk of severe weather before daybreak
Monday will be very low. Temperatures Sunday night will be running
much more mild than will be the case tonight and Saturday
night...therefore there will be no wintry precipitation worries in any of
our areas. /Bb/

Long term...Monday through next Friday...main focus in the long
term is on rain/ storm chances Monday with quieter conditions
expected through the remainder of the week.

By Monday morning a cold front will be near the northwestern portion
of the area, with showers and perhaps a few storms ongoing near
front early in the day. By afternoon a potent shortwave will swing
across the lower Mississippi Valley, accompanied by fairly sharp
height falls. Though surface dewpoints ahead of the front are
expected to struggle to reach the 60s, steepening middle level lapse
rates will create the potential for a few more robust storms mainly
south of I-20...with hail being the primary threat. This may
eventually warrant mention/outlook in the severe weather potential statement over the next day or
so.

The cold front will push southeast of the County Warning Area Monday evening, with
rain chances mostly tailing off before midnight. As the longwave
upper trough remains over the eastern Continental U.S. Into Tuesday, a
secondary shortwave will pivot from the Midwest into the middle
Atlantic causing a weak secondary front to clip the area. Cannot
rule out an isolated shower across the Golden Triangle, but for most
areas the only impact will be a wind shift. A strong upper ridge
will build in for middle to late week, with high pressure building in
at the surface. This will spell dry conditions, with temperatures remaining
above normal as low level flow quickly returns to southerly. /Dl/

&&

Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period.
Breezy north-NE winds will continue through the night into Saturday with
gusts from 15-20 possible on Saturday./15/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 36 49 29 59 / 0 0 0 7
Meridian 34 49 25 56 / 0 0 0 6
Vicksburg 37 48 32 60 / 0 0 0 12
Hattiesburg 39 55 29 62 / 0 0 0 7
Natchez 40 52 35 63 / 0 0 0 13
Greenville 31 41 31 54 / 0 0 0 17
Greenwood 30 44 28 54 / 0 0 0 13

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Bb/dl

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