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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
353 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Discussion...a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon allowed
temperatures to really warm into the lower 70s across the region and
make for a very pleasant start to a long Holiday weekend for many
folks. Thanks to increased southerly flow these temperatures are
about 10 to 12 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The region will
remain in this warm pattern through the weekend as we remain on the
western side of an elongated surface high pressure system that will pull
off into the North Atlantic through the end of the week. Upper
ridging will build into the region through Saturday. This will
impede an approaching cold front to our northwest and slow its
forward progress. It is possible that my northwest Delta counties
could see some rain as early as late Friday afternoon but I am
becoming more and more pessimistic that the ridge will give way that
much and the rain will hold off until later on Saturday.
Nonetheless...I have kept some probability of precipitation in the northwest for late Friday
into Saturday but have trimmed them lower than previous forecasts.

By Sunday...the ridge will begin to break down and heights will
lower slowly across the north central part of the area. Another area
of low pressure at the surface will develop and ride northwest along
the front. This will help bring the front through the region on
Sunday. While northwest/north counties could see some rain on looks like the entire region will have the best chance
for seeing rain on Sunday mainly behind the front. Models continue
to show poor instability with this system and it is unlikely to hear
thunder with this activity. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are not very high with the
Delta potentially seeing the highest near an inch. Further south and
east...the amounts drop off but nearly all locations should see a
tenth to a quarter of an inch at least. Some rain looks to linger
into the first part of the week as the front stalls to our east. A
large upper low will swing across the upper plains and push the
front eastward by middle week...allowing for the area to dry out some.

If you like a cold Thanksgiving weekend then you will be out of Luck
around here. Temperatures will be rather pleasant and almost
springlike with highs in the 70s or middle to upper 60s at worst and
lows inching higher each night thanks to clouds and moisture
transport. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s and even
lower 60s across western counties/parishes through the Holiday
weekend. Sunday will be the coolest day with rain and cloud cover.


Aviation...expect mainly VFR category ceilings for this afternoon
through the evening hours. This should change to MVFR when the
potential for 1000-1500 feet ceilings increases later tonight into the pre-
dawn hours Thursday. /27/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 54 72 57 73 / 3 6 6 5
Meridian 50 73 52 72 / 3 3 5 4
Vicksburg 57 74 62 75 / 3 4 6 13
Hattiesburg 54 73 55 76 / 4 4 11 3
Natchez 60 73 63 75 / 3 3 6 9
Greenville 56 72 60 72 / 3 4 10 29
Greenwood 56 72 58 72 / 3 3 6 13


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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