Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
845 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
updated solely for the going hourly trends. Quiet and clear conditions
to continue. /10/
VFR conditions will prevail this taf period. Look for a wind shift
later tonight into early Tuesday as a reinforcing weak front slips
through the area. /Cme/
Previous discussion... /issued 340 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015/
Tonight through Thursday...
A rather quiet weather regime will continue this week as dry
northwest flow maintains higher surface pressures for the arklamiss.
A very weak reinforcing front will move into the forecast area later
tonight...and this could help to keep boundary layer mixing a little
greater. It appears Tuesday night will be the coolest period - have
gone with a cooler blend of temperature guidance as it looks like
surface high pressure and clear skies will be favorable. High
temperatures will be near to slightly warmer than climatic
average...and a sizable southwest to northeast gradient is possible.
Long term...Thursday night through next Monday...a weak upper level
disturbance shifting east southeast over the middle-Mississippi River
valley will cause a weak cold front to trek through the region
Thursday night into Friday morning. This will brings some clouds back
into the region...along with some small rain chances mainly east of
the forecast area. Behind this front...cooler and drier air will
surge back into the forecast area.
Rain chances will increase and exist areawide over the upcoming
weekend. With a split flow pattern aloft residing over the
country...our flow aloft will be relatively west southwest to begin
the weekend. This is thanks to longwave troughing over the Desert
Southwest. This west southwest flow will cause Pacific moisture
aloft to increase across the lower Mississippi River valley.
There is uncertainty regarding how the southern/northern streams
will interact...but the trend has been for lower pressures over the
arklamiss region and perhaps heavier rainfall at some point this
weekend. There is some potential for very chilly air to surge in
behind the system early next week but ensemble spread on how this
scenario will unfold is substantial at this point. The majority of
the guidance keep the highly anomalous cold air locked in over
eastern Canada while some guidance indicates bigger anomalies will
shift farther west and pose a greater threat to the central Continental U.S..
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 39 61 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 34 60 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 38 64 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 39 64 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 40 65 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 39 58 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 37 57 32 58 / 0 0 0 0