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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
902 PM CDT sun Oct 19 2014

Update...another dry night in store for the arklamiss with overnight
lows falling into the 40s. The current forecast is in good shape with
only minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures and dewpoints to account
for the latest trends. /27/



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Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. Near
calm winds tonight will shift around to the northwest and north on Monday.
/Dl/22/



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Previous discussion... /issued 225 PM CDT sun Oct 19 2014/

Short term...tonight through Tuesday night...model solutions
continue to Show Low amplitude flow pattern becoming more amplified
by the end of the period as trough over the upper MS valley digs
southeast toward the Ohio Valley. As this occurs...mid/upper level
ridging will move out of the intermountain west and become semi-
anchored over the MS valley.

As the middle/upper level trough digs southeast...its associated cold front will
make a run for the County Warning Area Tuesday. With present surface ridge remaining
wedged over the County Warning Area...return flow will not have a chance to set
up. Thus...other than some clouds resulting from convergence along
its leading edge...am not expecting any precipitation or overcast
conditions with this boundary.

After another good radiational cooling night tonight...a gradual
warming trend will get underway through Tuesday. Conditions will cool
back down again by late Tuesday/Tuesday night./26/

Long term...Wednesday through Sunday...middle level ridge will build
across the region for the middle part of the week leading to a slight
warmup and continued dry conditions. A middle level trough will drop into
the region for the latter part of the extended period. Will keep the
forecast dry for now but will have to watch for any shower chances
Fri-Sat. /SW/

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 44 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 41 76 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 42 77 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 46 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 47 75 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 46 76 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 43 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0

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Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

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