Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
419 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015 has been a nice but somewhat warm day today as a
cold front slides down into our region. Temperatures ahead of this
front have been able to warm into the middle to upper 80s with plenty of
sunshine. Lower 80s are noted behind the front with drier air also
being noted across the region. This front is expected to linger or
stall across southern zones later today. Moisture will slowly move
back into the region and some showers could occur near the boundary
late tonight mainly after midnight. Additional showers and some
thunderstorms look to increase on Monday as an upper level low spins
across west central Texas. A surface low will develop along the Texas
coast and track east along the boundary through Louisiana. This will
at least bring some rain to the region. There is some possibility for
a few more robust storms in the southwest/south tomorrow afternoon as
lapse rates appear decent and deep layer shear will be sufficient.
There is some thought that this could remain still south of my County Warning Area
and have not yet included anything in our severe weather potential statement/graphics for this. The
surface low will continue to track to the east on Tuesday. Elevated
instability will bring potential for some thunderstorms south of I-20
with showers predominate north of said Interstate. Given the more
stable airmass over the region...not expecting much in the way of
severe weather at all but some better lapse rates exist that may
suggest a small potential in the south with the passage of the surface

The surface low will move east of the region into Florida Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Rain will be tapering off from west to east through
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper level trough swings across
the region. Much drier air will build into the region as surface high
and upper level ridging move in. This will bring cooler air back into
the region the latter parts of the week into the weekend. Highs in
the 60s and 70s with lows in the 50s should make for a spectacular
end to April and beginning of may. /28/


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through most of the taf
period. There is some potential for low clouds and/or fog around
daybreak Monday...especially at hbg. Isolated to scattered showers are
possible by late tonight/Monday morning...mainly west of the MS
river or across SW miss. /Dl/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 60 72 55 65 / 9 28 59 71
Meridian 58 73 55 66 / 7 11 39 69
Vicksburg 62 72 56 62 / 13 37 64 64
Hattiesburg 64 76 60 71 / 12 47 65 66
Natchez 64 73 58 65 / 29 53 70 60
Greenville 57 68 54 60 / 10 24 51 69
Greenwood 56 69 54 61 / 7 13 35 68


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations