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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
419 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015


Remainder of afternoon through Tuesday night...very dry air remains
entrenched over the region per morning radiosonde observations with kjan/klix
indicating ~1.35 precipitable water. This combined with full sun and
very dry soils has resulted in strong mixing once again with another
day of 100 degree f high temperatures. The hot and dry airmass
supported another day of fire danger...and it is possible the threat
could continue in limited fashion for Tuesday. But an overall trend
for slightly greater relative humidity and lower wind speeds should bring less of a
threat as we go through this week. Otherwise...with deep layer
moisture/precipitable water prognosticated to increase above 1.5 inches
over SW/SC MS...have raised consensus guidance probability of precipitation slightly for
that area Tuesday aftn/evng.

Wednesday through Sunday...the forecast is generally on track for
middle to late week with hot weather expected to continue in spite of
increased rain chances in the Wednesday-Friday time frame. A temporary
suppression of the subtropical ridge should allow a couple of short-
wave troughs to impact the region and bring increased convective
rainfall...especially over northern/eastern portions of the forecast area. As
we go into the weekend...latest GFS/European model (ecmwf) guidance suggest a very
hot thermal ridge will become re-established over the arklamiss with
h850 temperatures potentially exceeding 25 degree c. Have increased highs
above guidance blend...and would not be surprised if we see more dry
bulb temperatures reaching 100+ degree f than advertised. Models
indicate this hot and mostly dry pattern will continue through next
week with the potential for more triple digit heat. /Ec/


Aviation...another great day for flying as VFR conditions continue.
Winds are lighter around 5-10kts this afternoon. Winds should go
calm tonight and a shift out of the south and speeds around 5kts
expected Tuesday. /28/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 72 100 75 95 / 2 11 11 39
Meridian 67 99 72 96 / 2 3 3 43
Vicksburg 70 99 74 96 / 2 16 16 20
Hattiesburg 73 99 74 95 / 3 16 16 37
Natchez 73 96 75 94 / 4 17 17 23
Greenville 71 99 75 96 / 1 12 12 33
Greenwood 69 98 73 95 / 1 8 8 32


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...




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