Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
941 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014
Update...made some small tweaks to the forecast for tonight. Models
suggest warm and moist air will increase across the area ahead of the
front. Expecting dewpoints to remain in the middle 50s for much of the
night...could possibly see some small increases around Highway 84 and
south as winds increase around midnight. Went with the NAM
temperatures...which were a degree maybe two warmer...mainly in the east.
Values may fall a few degrees around middle morning behind the
front...but should recover.
Bufr soundings suggest a stratus deck will move in after midnight
and maintain through at least middle morning. Left a few clouds...but
may need to go back to increase to mostly cloudy first thing Monday
morning...mainly central and south. Left some clouds across the
north...there may be a few clouds with the front as it passes.
Gradient will increase...so still expecting gusty winds through the
night. Winds were already gusting just west of the County Warning Area. Values were
good...adjusted the gusts slightly.
Aviation...flight cats in the MVFR range (to locally IFR range) are
expected to spread north through portions of southern and eastern MS
overnight in advance of a cold front coming in from the west in the
early morning. This front will push through the arklamiss Delta late
tonight and bring some patchy Post frontal clouds in the MVFR
range...but gusty southwest to west winds may be a bigger deal to
operations come daybreak. These occasionally gusty west winds will
be at least some issue in most areas after daybreak tomorrow...but
should relax some after midday. Any sub-VFR flight cats tonight and
early tomorrow should improve before by 10 to 11 am on Monday. /Bb/
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 57 61 36 57 / 8 6 3 5
Meridian 59 61 35 57 / 8 7 4 6
Vicksburg 50 61 36 61 / 8 5 3 4
Hattiesburg 61 64 39 58 / 6 6 3 7
Natchez 54 60 37 58 / 7 4 3 5
Greenville 50 58 35 55 / 14 6 3 4
Greenwood 51 58 34 55 / 14 9 3 4