Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1112 PM CDT Friday may 17 2013
Update...quick update to cover the potential for a few strong
storms and locally heavy rain for the remainder of the night across
the NE portion of the County Warning Area. This evening...a well defined boundary
was noted both at the surface and up through about 850mb. This boundary
extends generally from gwo to just north of mei. This will provide a
focus for scattered/numerous rain showers/thunderstorms and rain overnight as solid moisture/Theta-E
advection continues atop that feature in the 0-2km layer.
Additionally...the airmass aloft is moderately unstable with
1500-2000 j/kg of MUCAPE and muli's of -5 to -7c. There is also
sufficient deep layer shear of 30kts to support organized updrafts.
At this time and despite ongoing convection...we are lacking a
sufficient trigger and this activity is being driven by the solid
moisture advection near the boundary. However...in a bout 2-4 hours...a
subtle but evident shortwave (currently near mem) will slip to the southeast and
provide a better trigger and increased ascent. Near term guidance
indicates convection increasing after 06-08z across the NE County Warning Area
through about 12-13z. With favorable environment for strong
convection...will mention the risk for a few strong storms
overnight. However...the main risk will likely come from heavy rain
as storms will have the potential to train/move over the same areas.
Parts of the Highway 82 corridor have seen 1-2 inches on Friday and
additional precipitation could pose a flooding risk...especially if 2-4
inches occur. We will be updating the graphics and severe weather potential statement to account
for this potential. /Cme/
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 945 PM CDT Friday may 17 2013/
Update...
scattered showers are still developing in central/NE MS. The upper low
continues eastward tonight and the primary heavy rain threat has
moved into central Alabama. However, upstream formation of scattered
storms still remains possible here in central/NE MS. Adjusted probability of precipitation
for the update. Mostly lowered them everywhere, keeping a 30 percent
chance for NE MS. Should be a humid and muggy night across the
remainder of arklamiss. Lows will be in the upper 60s. /10/
&&
Aviation...
The primary aviation concern for later tonight into Saturday morning
will be another episode of MVFR/IFR category stratus impacting most
taf sites in southerly flow. Expect the ceilings to lift into VFR
category by early afternoon...with any shower/thunderstorms and rain chances confined
to the gwo/gtr/mei area. /Ec/
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 69 87 68 88 / 11 12 6 13
Meridian 67 87 66 89 / 20 25 15 12
Vicksburg 68 87 66 88 / 7 12 4 13
Hattiesburg 68 88 69 87 / 4 9 12 7
Natchez 69 86 67 88 / 5 8 7 10
Greenville 70 88 69 89 / 13 13 4 13
Greenwood 69 87 69 89 / 30 28 8 13
&&
Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&
$$
Cme
