Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
857 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015
no need for any changes to the forecast this evening. Everything is
right on track. Quiet persistence. /10/
with the exception of patchy areas of early morning fog...VFR
conditions will prevail through Wednesday. /Ec/
Previous discussion... /issued 317 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015/
Short term...(tonight through Thursday night)... latest satellite
imagery showed the region under partly cloudy skies with surface
high pressure parked over Georgia. Middle afternoon readings were in the
lower to middle 80s with middle 50s to lower 60s dewpoints with
breezy south gusty winds up to around 20-25 knots. Satellite imagery
also showed good return flow of moisture in the plains with good
upper divergence...which was ahead of a strong short wave near The
Four Corners region. In the lower to middle levels the County Warning Area was under
the influence of an an upper ridge centered over the southeast US.
In the upper levels there was an upper trough centered over Alabama/MS
border into the Gulf.
Expect quiet conditions for tonight. For Wednesday all models agree
that we will get better southerly return flow for an increase of
precipitable waters up to around 1.25. This will allow for some sea breeze
development...which will help showers and a few thunderstorms to
develop in the south. This will be aided by a weak short wave moving
through the region. This is verified by hi res models guidance.
Models continue to show that MLCAPE will be around 1000 with 500 mb
temperatures around -12c. So not expecting any strong to severe storms for
Wednesday. On Thursday southerly flow will continue over the region.
The nam12 shows a quiet day over the region as midlevel ridging or
rising of heights caps the County Warning Area off from significant convective
development. There may be a few shallow top showers during the day
if anything can form. Daily lows will gradually transition to all 60s
during the short term. Highs will stay in the 80s./17/
Long term...Friday through next Tuesday...high pressure...both
aloft and at the surface...look to remain wedged into the region
from the west through much of the forecast period. This will result
in continued warm and humid conditions...with little in the way of
rain chances through at least the upcoming weekend.
While there are timing differences...models try to bring a weak
disturbance associated with a cold into the forecast area sometime
during the first few days of the new work week...which could bring
an increase in rain chances. Otherwise...highs through the period
will top out in the 80s and lows will fall into the 60s each night.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 59 83 63 84 / 3 11 10 5
Meridian 56 83 60 84 / 3 7 3 3
Vicksburg 60 84 64 85 / 3 9 8 8
Hattiesburg 59 84 62 85 / 3 27 17 7
Natchez 61 82 65 84 / 3 23 16 11
Greenville 61 83 64 85 / 3 6 6 6
Greenwood 59 84 63 85 / 3 5 4 5