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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
911 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Update...the front is now pushing south of the I-20 corridor...with
60s dewpoints straggling behind the wind shift back along the US 82
corridor. Isolated/scattered storms continue ahead of the
boundary...currently pushing into the Natchez/Brookhaven/Pine belt
areas. The front will continue into south MS/central la overnight.
With sub one inch precipitable waters moving into the Delta and Golden Triangle
regions by daybreak. The forecast was updated to remove probability of precipitation north
of the front and to make some minor tweaks to overnight lows across
northern portions of the County Warning Area. Updates are currently being sent. /Dl/

&&

Aviation...isolated showers and storms through the rest of the
evening could affect hbg/pib/hez sites...ahead of front now pushing
south to the I-20 corridor. This front will tend to hang up over far
southern zones late tonight where potential for IFR flight Cat
development due to combination of low clouds and fog will be
greatest come Friday at daybreak. Elsewhere some pockets of MVFR
flights cats possible late tonight into early Friday...but IFR
generally not anticipated. Very light and mostly north winds tonight
will pick up from the north tomorrow...but still should remain
mainly below 10 kts. Conditions everywhere should be VFR by 9 or 10
am tomorrow morning with minor chances for midday to afternoon
convection tomorrow confined south of I-20. /Bb/

&&

Discussion... /issued at 308 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014/
short term...this evening through Saturday night.
The main upper trough axis will continue to push off to the east on
Friday as the upper high over the southwest U.S. Expands eastward
into the south. Rain chances will remain confined to the southeast
portion of Mississippi through the weekend while drier air will
filter in from the north. Mainly only the Delta will get to enjoy
the drier air but that will also be the area which will experience
the hotter temperatures over the weekend. Now that said...I did
generally go with GFS MOS temperatures but did knock down highs for
Saturday a degree or two due to the trend of temperatures struggling to get
even to the middle 90s. The drier air will be hort-lived though as the
surface flow rotates to a more southerly direction on Saturday. The
southerly flow and an increase to humidity will cause heat indices
in the afternoon to reach near or above 100 degrees both Saturday
and Sunday. /10/

Long term...Sunday through next Thursday.

A middle level trough will amplify over the Great Lakes region by Monday
which will force the ridge back to the west and allow a surface cold
front to push across the forecast area. This will lead to a chance
of thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. The front will hang up
along the Gulf Coast Tuesday providing a chance for some showers in
the southern forecast area.

The middle level trough will remain amplified through middle week with all
models showing a wave moving across the region in the
Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. Thus...will carry chance probability of precipitation through
the latter part of the forecast.

High temperatures will be near seasonable norms Monday and Tuesday
and then trend below normal by middle week. /SW/

&&

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Dl/bb/10/SW

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