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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
335 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Discussion...Happy Thanksgiving from the midnight shift here at weather forecast office

Thanksgiving through Friday night...mild and breezy will essentially
sum up the 2015 editions of both Thanksgiving and black Friday across
the arklamiss. Ridging aloft resulting in south to southwest flow
aloft over the addition to east to southeast flow at the
surface...will continue to result in a subtle increase in moisture
levels across the forecast area. With partly to mostly cloudy skies
expected each day and night across much of the County Warning Area...highs both today
and Friday will top out in the low to middle 70s. Overnight lows
tonight and Friday night will also remain they range from
the middle 50s to lower 60s.

With the before mentioned surface high wedged into the region from
the east and a developing storm system out west over the Southern
Plains...the pressure gradient will remain over the arklamiss
through week's end. This will result in breezy east to southeast
winds across the region...with some gusts around 25 miles per hour possible.
Winds will generally subside to between 5-10 miles per hour overnight.

Some showers could creep back into the forecast...primarily over the
Delta Region...during the late afternoon Friday and into Friday
night. A cold front trying to shift east toward the region
Friday...will meet some resistance as both ridging aloft and high
pressure hold firm across the forecast area. Probability of precipitation across the Delta
during this time will be in the 20-30% range...with the remainder of
the County Warning Area currently forecast to remain dry through at least the next
48 hours. /19/

Saturday through next Wednesday...the primary concern in the
extended is precipitation timing for late this week into next week.

As we move into the weekend into next week the operational models and
ensembles are still having some timing differences with the rainfall
across the region through the weekend into the middle of next week.
The upper pattern of the ensembles and operational models all showed
the general same solution as the upper closed low over the southwest
lifts out into the northern US. This will be followed by a weaker
upper trough settling over the western US by early next week.
So made minor adjustments to blended guidance. We will have some
short wave ridging over the region during the weekend as southwest
US closed low trough pushes weak impulses across the region. A cold
front will be approaching the region on Saturday from the west.
Shortwave ridging will help to keep the rain confined to the
northwest half through Saturday night. Heights will eventually lower
across the region as a cold front pushes into the region. This will
spread rain across the County Warning Area with very weak instability. The front
will become stationary by Monday. This will help to keep our chances
of rain through Tuesday night. The front will exit the region on
Tuesday. Models differ on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The GFS and
Canadian brings isentropic lift for another round of rainfall for
Tuesday night through Wednesday coming in from the west...while the
Euro brings in the next chance of rain later in the work week. Do
not see any thunder with such weak instability so will keep it all

As far as temperatures are concern looking for mild temperatures for this weekend
with highs in the 60s to lower 70s which is a little above
normal...then cooling to mainly the 50s behind the front on
Wednesday. Lows will start on the mild side with lows in the 50s
over the weekend before cooling to the 30s and 40s by Wednesday


Aviation...despite some clouds over the region...VFR flight
categories look to prevail through much of Thanksgiving. Breezy east
to southeast winds sustained around 15 knots...gusting to around 22
knots at times...are expected today. These winds will subside to
between 4-9 knots tonight. /19/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 73 58 73 58 / 3 5 9 7
Meridian 73 54 73 54 / 2 5 5 5
Vicksburg 74 61 74 61 / 6 7 12 12
Hattiesburg 74 56 76 56 / 6 7 5 4
Natchez 74 61 74 61 / 6 7 11 9
Greenville 72 60 71 61 / 5 9 25 25
Greenwood 72 59 73 60 / 5 6 15 14


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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