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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
349 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Short term...tonight through Friday night...a slight chance for
showers will remain through tonight thanks to continued southerly
moist flow. The upper trough will continue to progress to the east
through the day on Thursday...while we continue to moisten and warm
out ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and storms will be
possible throughout the day Thursday...with highs continuing to be on
the warm side...mainly in the 90s.

Look for showers and storms across the County Warning Area Thursday night as the cold
front moves on in. There is the potential for a few severe storms.
However...later arrival of the system looks to reduce the severe
threat risk. Lower lapse rates and warmer middle level heights should
greatly limit any hail risk. There does appear to be enough shear to
allow for some damaging winds and maybe a few tornadoes. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to linger over eastern MS Friday
morning...but the risk for strong/severe storm activity will be
diminished given weaker forcing and a more stable airmass. While
temperatures may still manage to reach the lower 80s Friday
afternoon...expect much drier and cooler air to move in Friday night
with overnight lows in the 40s to around 50 south.

As for guidance...went close to a blend of mav and gmos for highs
and lows...and went close to mav guidance for probability of precipitation except for
tonight which were cut due to the latest trends. /27/

Long term...Saturday through Tuesday...the northern stream trough
continues to look impressive in the most recent guidance. Highs may
not reach 70 degree f over portions of north central MS Saturday under
sunny skies...and most locations are expected to see lows in the
middle/upper 40s Saturday night with a few locations in north central MS
possibly dipping into the upper 30s. The guidance seems aggressive
with these lows...but given the recent dry conditions/dry soils and
with high pressure and clear skies overhead...the guidance should be
close. Quick moderation of the dry, cool airmass is expected Sunday
night through early next week as the low level thermal through shifts
eastward and southerly flow develops. A fast-moving shortwave trough
may bring showers Monday into Monday night. /Ec/



&&

Aviation...at midafternoon VFR conditions was noted across the
region. All sites will resume VFR conditions through this evening.
Showers will be quite isolated for tonight and will not mention in
tafs. Expect another round of stratus IFR-MVFR ceilings after
10z...which will lift by 14-15z to VFR conditions. /17/



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 70 89 71 82 / 20 53 60 36
Meridian 68 90 71 83 / 20 53 65 48
Vicksburg 70 90 68 82 / 20 45 61 26
Hattiesburg 70 91 72 86 / 20 56 51 44
Natchez 72 90 68 82 / 20 44 61 29
Greenville 69 91 68 79 / 20 42 61 20
Greenwood 69 90 68 79 / 20 49 61 31

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

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