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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
943 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Update...a dry airmass has settled into the area in the wake of a
front that has finally pushed south into the Gulf. High pressure
transiting the Midwest will maintain mostly clear conditions though
it will be cooler today. The current forecast is generally on track,
with just some minor tweaks planned for hourly temperatures/dewpoints and
forecast maximum temperatures in a few spots. /Dl/


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period.
Breezy north-NE winds will continue this morning with gusts of 15-20kts
at times but the winds will become lighter this afternoon but still
sustained around 10kts. /22/28/


Discussion... /issued at 411 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016/
short through Sunday night...colder than normal and
dry into Sunday...then warmer than normal and wet Sunday night.
Early morning water vapor imagery/rap had an amplified pattern of
ridging over The Rockies and troughing over the eastern Continental U.S.. this
was resulting in northwest flow aloft over our region. Surface
analysis had a >1040mb high centered over Minnesota ridging south
over the northern Gulf. The northwest flow aloft will help the
surface high drop southeast to the Ohio Valley by this evening. As
it does so the associated cold air advection will send a cold and dry air mass
farther into our County Warning Area. Gusty north winds were already being observed
over north Mississippi and can be expected over our County Warning Area until noon.
The pressure gradient will relax during the afternoon as the surface
high weakens some. The cold air advection will offset the near full insolation
today and hold temperatures in the 40s over the northern half of the
area with low to middle 50s expected south. The surface high will
continue southeast tonight becoming centered over the central
Appalachians by Sunday morning. This will result in a light east
southeast wind over our County Warning Area by morning but decent radiational
cooling of our dry air mass will allow for below freezing
temperatures again over all except our southwest zones. Return flow
will develop over our region Sunday as the surface high shifts east
to the middle Atlantic Seaboard. This will begin to slowly increase low
level moisture over our County Warning Area. A northern stream shortwave trough will
swing across the northern plains and Great Lakes region Sunday and
Sunday night. The associated surface low will drop a weak cold front
into northern Mississippi by midnight. Light rain is expected to
develop along and ahead of the cold front and spread into our
northwest zones late Sunday afternoon. The shortwave will shift
rapidly to the northeast stranding the cold front that will continue
a slow drift into our County Warning Area. Much of the area will see rain Sunday
night but the greatest probability of precipitation will be carried along and north of
Highway 82. /22/

Long term...Monday through next Friday...main focus in the long
term is on rain/ storm chances Monday with quieter conditions
expected through the remainder of the week.

For Monday showers and some storms will be occurring across the
region as a cold front approaches from the northwest during the
morning. The front and associated potent short wave will pass
through the region by early evening with some decent height falls.
Models still keep the dewpoints in the 50s to near 60. Some of the
storms may be more robust south of Interstate 20 where instability
is a little better. Steep lapse rates with midlevel temperatures -18 to
-20c favor the risk of some hail. This may eventually warrant
mention/outlook in the severe weather potential statement over the next day or so. Our rain chances
will end from the west prior to midnight.

On Tuesday a short wave will pivot around the eastern Continental U.S. Upper
trough coming from the Central Plains and will push into the
midsouth region. This will bring a small chance of showers to the
Columbus area. A strong upper ridge will build in for middle to late
week, with high pressure building in at the surface. This will spell
dry conditions, with temperatures remaining above normal as low level flow
quickly returns to southerly. Models diverge on Friday with the rain
chances as a front approaches the region from the northwest. Opted
to go with dry probability of precipitation for that period. /17/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 51 30 60 50 / 0 0 7 47
Meridian 50 24 57 45 / 0 0 6 42
Vicksburg 50 31 61 52 / 0 0 12 50
Hattiesburg 55 29 63 50 / 0 0 7 35
Natchez 54 33 63 53 / 0 0 13 43
Greenville 43 31 54 47 / 0 0 17 71
Greenwood 44 29 55 47 / 0 0 13 64


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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