Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
340 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014 through Saturday will be a day of
transition as high pressure positions itself east of the region
through the course of the day...while our upper level flow begins to
become more zonal heading into the weekend. Southerly flow will
increase across the region during this time...resulting in warming
conditions over the next 48 hours. This will also bring an increase
in cloud cover over the forecast area from west to east beginning
early Saturday morning.

Highs today under mostly sunny skies will range from the middle 50s
north to the middle 60s south. Again...clouds will increase from west
to east after midnight tonight as lows range from the middle 30s over
east Mississippi to around 50 west of the Mississippi River. Then
on Saturday...highs will peak from the middle 60s to lower 70s...with
lows Saturday night ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s. /19/

Sunday through next Friday...moisture will gradually increase across
the region under low level southerly flow. Precipitable waters will increase from
0.6 to around 1.3 by Monday. A cold front will approach the region
on Monday. There will be enough moisture convergence to bring some light
showers to the region for Monday through Tuesday. The front will
push to south of the region by Monday night. There may be just
enough limited instability for a few rumbles of thunder for Monday but not
enough to mention in the grids or zones. The rain will clear out of
the region by Tuesday evening. Another cold front will push into the
region on Wednesday. The Euro tries to bring some light rain for
Wednesday into Wednesday night with it while the GFS seems to be
generally dry. Low level southerly flow will return to the region on
Thursday into Friday. Another front will push into the region on
Friday bringing another chance of rain to the region...which is
agreed by the GFS and Euro. /17/


Aviation...with some high clouds noted over north Mississippi this
morning...VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through much
of the period. Winds will be southerly today between 5-10 knots and
remain so through the period. Increasing low level moisture
overnight could bring some low clouds into the western half of the
area early Saturday morning...perhaps resulting in some MVFR
ceilings around day break west of Interstate 55. /19/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 58 42 68 52 / 0 0 4 5
Meridian 56 35 68 49 / 0 0 2 5
Vicksburg 60 43 70 52 / 0 0 5 5
Hattiesburg 59 41 70 53 / 0 0 2 5
Natchez 61 48 71 56 / 0 0 3 5
Greenville 56 44 69 55 / 0 0 8 5
Greenwood 57 41 67 55 / 0 0 7 5


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations