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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
330 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Short term...tonight through Wednesday night...surface analysis
shows the cold front near the Highway 84 corridor with only a few
storms along it. The cold front will continue shifting south of our
County Warning Area during the next few hours. There is still a low chance for a few
strong to severe storm to develop over our southeast most counties
with wind gusts to 60 miles per hour. This potential will end once the front
moves through. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area in the
wake of the front. Middle 70 degree dew points over central Mississippi
at noon have been knocked down into the middle 60s. Satellite imagery
shows a few high clouds from convection over the Southern Plains
that may edge into our western zones tonight...but mostly clear
skies are expected elsewhere. Mostly clear skies and a light north
wind will allow the drier airmass to cool below normal by morning.
Near record low temperatures are forecast at Greenwood and Vicksburg
Tuesday morning as temperatures bottom out in the lower 60s in those
areas. Tuesday will be cooler and remain dry as surface high
pressure drops in from the northwest and we maintain our northwest
flow aloft thanks to the amplified upper level trough over the
eastern Continental U.S.. the coolest night of the week is expected Tuesday
night where record lows will be tied or broken at more locations.
There will be the chance for thicker high clouds from convection
over the Southern Plains again that may hinder optimum radiative
cooling...especially in our western zones. Despite the high
clouds...guidance has been fairly consistent with Wednesday morning
lows bottoming out closer to 60f and possibly dipping into the upper
50s at the normally colder locations. Most of the morning lows for
the date were set back in 1994 but the record lows for Meridian 60f
and Jackson 61f were set back in 1897. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over our region through Wednesday night and weak surface high
pressure will remain centered north of our area limiting deep
moisture return to our County Warning Area. Models are consistent with a shortwave
in the northwest flow aloft increasing rain chances over our County Warning Area
Wednesday into Wednesday night. As our airmass will likely take some
time to moisten...light showers will remain limited to the Delta
Region and late in the afternoon Wednesday. This activity will
slowly spread east Wednesday night. Current thinking is that our
southeast zones will remain dry until during the day Thursday. /22/

Long term...a long wave trough will be in place across the eastern
half of the country for the extended forecast period...a very
unusual situation for late July and early August. This will lead to
below normal highs and lows through the period. An increase in
moisture is expected by Thursday and once the moisture establishes will remain in place through Monday. The rain will
mostly be showers Thursday due to dry air...but enough instability
will develop Friday into the weekend for scattered thunderstorms to
be a daily occurrence. /SW/


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through 29/10z. A cold front
moving through the southern portions of our area this afternoon may
help develop an isolated thunderstorm in vicinity of khbg but no
precipitation is expected at the other taf sites. The cold front and storm
chances will be out of the area by 29/00z. MVFR conditions will be
possible again between 10-14z Tuesday...mainly across the east and south
before going VFR after 14z. /17/22/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 65 90 61 90 / 4 1 2 8
Meridian 63 90 58 89 / 4 1 2 6
Vicksburg 63 90 60 89 / 4 2 2 10
Hattiesburg 68 93 64 92 / 13 3 2 4
Natchez 67 89 63 89 / 12 2 2 5
Greenville 65 88 61 86 / 2 1 2 17
Greenwood 62 86 59 87 / 2 1 2 11


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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