Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS 
845 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Update...expect mostly clear skies tonight across the arklamiss as high 
pressure continues to build in. Lows tonight will range from the middle 
40s in the east...to the upper 50s across the west. The only change 
to the current forecast was to slightly adjust the hourly temperatures to 
account for the latest trends. /27/ 




&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail as a cool/dry late may 
airmass keeps the weather quiet across our County Warning Area. Look for light NE or 
calm winds tonight that will transition to light east-southeast/southeast winds on 
Saturday. /Cme/ 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 401 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 


Discussion... 


Tonight through Sunday... 


A few showers and thunderstorms could affect the Jonesville to 
Natchez area late this afternoon in a region of weak moist frontal 
convergence. Otherwise...high pressure currently building over the 
arklamiss will remain anchored over the arklamiss this weekend. The 
dry airmass will bring unseasonably cool temperatures 
tonight...possibly near record levels in eastern Mississippi where 
lows are expected to fall into the middle/upper 40s. Temperatures will 
warm well into the 80s Saturday with low relative humidity. 


Sunday...a weak middle level shortwave trough meandering eastward 
through the ridge axis along the MS river could combine with daytime 
heating to initiate a few showers and thunderstorms over western 
portions of the forecast area. Have added slight chance category 
probability of precipitation to account for this. /Ec/ 


Sunday night through Thursday... 


Building middle level heights and southerly low level flow will develop 
and persist through the early to middle parts of next week. This will 
lead to highs generally in the middle to upper 80s with gradually 
increasing humidity. The lack of instability and deep moisture 
combined with the high heights should keep conditions dry through the 
period. /SW/ 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Jackson 53 87 58 88 / 0 0 6 5 
Meridian 47 84 50 89 / 0 0 5 4 
Vicksburg 56 86 60 87 / 0 2 9 13 
Hattiesburg 54 88 54 88 / 0 0 4 4 
Natchez 59 86 62 85 / 4 8 6 15 
Greenville 56 84 61 87 / 0 2 7 15 
Greenwood 50 83 56 88 / 0 0 6 7 


&& 


Jan watches/warnings/advisories... 
MS...none. 
La...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


27/cme/ec/SW