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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1020 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Update...most of the rain has ended this evening and a lull in the
activity is expected until close to morning when the upper level low
over Texas draws closer and helps develop another round of rain with
a few thunderstorms. Have lowered probability of precipitation until then. The rain cooled
air has lowered temperatures at or below forecast minimums across our
southern zones. Have lowered forecast morning lows by several degrees
in our south. Some clearing was noted on satellite imagery over our
western zones but clouds will increase again from the west by
morning. /22/


Aviation...the large area of showers and thunderstorms earlier this evening
south of Highway 84 will dissipate by 04z and there will be a lull in the
convection until after 09z. VFR conditions were being reported
areawide at 03z and VFR conditions will continue until after 09z when
convection will begin moving into the area from the west. Taf sites
will develop MVFR/IFR conditions through Tuesday morning with
widespread rain and a few thunderstorms as an upper level low moves across
the region. /22/


Previous discussion... /issued 410 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/

Discussion...morning mesoscale convective system that moved through mostly southern
Mississippi and central Louisiana has since moved toward Florida.
Additional showers and storms have once again developed in roughly
the same locations and some of these storms are a little more robust
across south central Louisiana. However as they move further
east...they are encountering a little more stable and drier air and
have been weakening. This all comes ahead of a developing low in the
Gulf of Mexico and a cutoff upper low over north central Texas.
Models continue to indicate that this low will develop through
tonight and track to the east through the day tomorrow. As this
occurs...the upper low will also track to the east tomorrow and
tomorrow night over northern Mississippi/mid-south. Rain and moisture
will overspread the region from the southwest to northeast through
tonight and during the day tomorrow. There should be enough elevated
instability for some thunder but severe storms dont look likely. If
the boundary can advance north in response to the eastward tracking
surface low and better moisture can move into the region and interact
with the sufficient shear in place...there could be a stronger
storm. However this is not enough to put in the severe weather potential statement and graphics at
this time.

The surface low will track south of the region and into Alabama/Florida by tomorrow
evening and the rain will eventually taper off from west to east
through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. The upper trough/low
will then swing over the region...effectively ending our rain
potential. The region will remain under upper level
troughing/northwest flow through early Friday. This will help bring
unseasonably cooler temperatures to the region through at least
Thursday with daytime highs in the 60s and lower 70s and overnight
lows in the 50s(yes even a night where some 40s are possible!). surface
high pressure will move in for the weekend...keeping conditions dry
from Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures will gradually
moderate back to typical readings for this time of year. Not a bad
way to end April and usher in may...especially when one thinks about
the significant tornado events from just a year ago and four years
ago. /28/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 57 64 51 66 / 76 64 40 21
Meridian 55 67 53 65 / 60 71 57 30
Vicksburg 58 61 51 67 / 81 62 36 13
Hattiesburg 58 74 53 67 / 85 64 30 18
Natchez 59 64 49 66 / 85 52 24 11
Greenville 54 58 50 66 / 70 73 48 11
Greenwood 54 60 50 67 / 55 72 53 19


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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