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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
405 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016

Discussion...today through Saturday night... a cold front currently
resides over my southern zones just north of the Highway 84
corridor. Along and ahead of this front...low stratus and patchy
fog has developed over portions of east central Louisiana and south
Mississippi. Behind the front...surface high pressure is gradually
building into the region from the northwest...with north to
northwest winds advecting drier air into the region.

As the morning progresses and heating ensues after sunrise...both
the low clouds and patchy fog will dissipate over the southern half
of the forecast area. Despite some high clouds still streaming
southeast across the region...thanks to continued northwest flow
aloft...skies will remain mostly clear today into tonight. Highs
toady will range from the upper 50s north to middle 70s south. Lows
tonight will be from the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Both high pressure and cold advection will increase across the
forecast area on Saturday. This will result in noticeably colder
conditions compared to those observed both Thursday and Friday. Once
again...with mostly clear skies...highs Saturday will range from the
upper 30s north to middle 50s south. Lows Saturday night will be
quiet chilly as they fall into the lower 20s to lower 30s. /19/

Sunday through Thursday...light return flow is expected
Sunday as the large surface high becomes centered over the middle
Atlantic Seaboard and ridges back across the Gulf Coast states. The
resulting light southeast flow over our region will begin to slowly
increase low level moisture over our County Warning Area. Our flow aloft will
initially be near zonal as the southern branch of the jet stream
resides over our southern zones. A northern stream shortwave trough
will swing across the Great Lakes region and support an associated
surface low that will drop a weak cold front into northern
Mississippi by midnight. Light rain is expected to develop along and
ahead of the cold front but this activity is not expected to spread
into our northwest zones until Sunday evening. This initial
shortwave will lift out rapidly to the northeast stranding the cold
front that is expected to stall along the Highway 82 corridor early
Monday morning. A second more potent shortwave will drop over the
plains Monday morning and swing across our County Warning Area Monday evening.
Models are in better agreement with a surface low that will develop
along the stalled front in response to the shortwave. This surface
low is expected to track east across the central portions of our County Warning Area
Monday dragging a cold front southeast of our County Warning Area Monday evening.
The potential for any strong to severe storms with this system still
looks low. The rain is expected to end from the west Monday evening
as the surface low shifts east rapidly. Models differ with another
weaker northern stream shortwave Tuesday. The European model (ecmwf) is farther south
with the shortwave and generates light precipitation across our
northern most zones. Have leaned toward the GFS which is stronger
but farther north with the shortwave and maintains dry weather over
our County Warning Area Tuesday. Despite dry weather lasting through Thursday. This
latitude shortwave will prolong the mean upper level trough over the
eastern Continental U.S. Longer and help maintain cooler than normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures look
to return Thursday and continue through the end of the week. /22/

&&

Aviation...VFR flight categories are prevailing at most taf sites
across the area this morning. However...low stratus and patchy fog
over south Mississippi...ahead of a cold front currently located
just north of the Highway 84 corridor...has resulted in IFR/MVFR
flight categories at khbg. As daytime heating ensues after
sunrise...both low stratus and patchy fog will dissipate. This will
give way to VFR flight categories areawide for the remainder of the
forecast period. /19/



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 68 36 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 68 33 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 67 37 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 75 39 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 70 39 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 59 32 41 28 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 60 30 43 25 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

19/22

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