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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
324 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014


Today through Saturday

Continued slightly below normal temperatures through Saturday with
scattered showers today and Friday with a few thunderstorms possible
first half of weekend as a weak weather disturbance remains nearby.

Light rain showers continue along and west of the MS river
associated with a inverted surface pressure trough over the arklatex
but low level clouds have thinned out across central and east MS as
one piece of a 700 mb-500 mb shortwave trough exits east of the region. This
thinning has allowed for temperatures to recover into the middle 80s
this afternoon for some areas. These below normal readings are expected to
continue but with slow moderation into Saturday with upper 80s
expected by the weekend.

For tomorrow into Saturday...main driver of weather will be
combination of inverted surface pressure trough across the lower
Sabine River and embedded northwest flow shortwave troughs crossing region.
Greatest low-level convergence will be across west/SW areas supporting
at least scattered shower activity. Shower coverage will be more
isolated for central and eastern locations. Instability will be
greater Saturday afternoon during peak heating and have included
chance for some thunderstorms. Most activity will dissipate through
the overnight hours but some light showers could linger given passing
shortwave trough energy. /Allen/

Sunday through Thursday

A much weaker upper level trough will be over our County Warning Area come Monday. A
1020mb high is expected to be centered over the middle Mississippi River
valley through Monday maintaining a dry north to northeast low level
flow that will limit moisture across the northern half of the County Warning Area
while precipitable waters around an inch and a quarter hold on over our southern
zones. The greatest chance for mainly diurnally driven rain Monday
through Wednesday will be south of Interstate 20. Afternoon maximum
temperatures will be near normal in the lower 90s Monday through
Wednesday. Morning lows will start off below normal Monday and
Tuesday mornings in the middle to upper 60s and be near normal in the
lower 70s at most locations Wednesday morning. The flow aloft will
start out nearly zonal Wednesday night into Thursday morning but
another shortwave will drop out of the northern plains to the Great
Lakes region by Friday morning. This will help drive a cold front
into northwest Mississippi by Friday morning. Greatest probability of precipitation Thursday
will be carried in the south during the day due to sea breeze
activity but shift to our northern zones overnight as the front
approaches. /22/


Aviation...VFR conditions are prevailing this afternoon. An upper
level disturbance is bringing mostly light rain to portions of the
region. A brief bout of mainly MVFR visibilities could be possible
with some of the more moderate rainfall. Winds for today will be
from the northeast between 5-8 knots...and gradually subside to
light to calm later this evening. /28/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 66 85 69 88 / 23 38 28 49
Meridian 64 86 67 89 / 17 27 26 55
Vicksburg 66 84 67 88 / 47 44 32 42
Hattiesburg 65 89 70 90 / 17 33 29 53
Natchez 67 85 69 89 / 43 44 29 44
Greenville 66 82 69 86 / 43 38 26 35
Greenwood 66 83 67 87 / 31 30 27 41


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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