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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1030 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015

Discussion...high pressure at the surface will continue to build
east into the forecast area a middle/upper level trough axis
swings through the region. The resulting subsidence over the County Warning Area
will lead to sunny skies areawide...with some high clouds streaming
northeast across my southern zones today. One other thing of note
on visible satellite this morning...there is an area of stratus over
central Alabama that's moving west toward east Mississippi. As
warming continues out ahead of it and it begins to encounter much
drier air the further west it should begin to dissipate.
Therefore...i'll keep skies clear over my eastern zones today.

As far as temperatures are concerned...cold advection...while weaker
today...will continue across the area. Highs will certainly be
warmer today compared to yesterday at the range from around 40 in
the Delta to the lower 50s over southeast Mississippi.

Overall...the current forecast looks good for today. Other than
some minor trend adjustments to hourly major changes will
be made to the forecast on this update. /19/


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /26/


Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015/

Short through Saturday night...overall a quiet short
term with below average conditions today and again on Saturday. Look for
lots of sunshine today with just a thin veil of cirrus over the southeast half.
This will still promote a decent warm up despite weak cold air advection still
occurring a the surface high center will be close to Memphis. Despite the
cold start to the day with several record lows being set...temperatures will
reach 45-53 degree for most locations. The exception looks to be
across our northwest Delta area where colder conditions will linger as the
northerly surface winds off the snow/ice pack will keep temperatures in the
37-43 range.

Overnight lows will be on the cold side as the surface high settles over
the region and good radiational conditions set up. More widespread
low/middle 20s are expected which again will set a handful of records
Sat morning.

A much warmer day is in store for Sat as more sunshine will again
help work on the temperatures. The biggest factor will be the increase in
the lower level thermal field as S/southeast 925mb winds will offer temperatures
in that layer of 7-9c. Such readings will support surface temperatures 58-63.
Look for increasing high clouds by late afternoon Sat with
thickening and lowering middle/high clouds for Sat night. Temperatures Sat night
will not be as cold...but I feel temperatures will still be chilly and fall
rapidly Sat evening. Much of this will be related to the cold ground as
the fact that winds will be light/calm as the surface ridge axis will be
over the area. Expectations are that the increasing clouds later
will allow temperatures to hold and likely warm toward sunrise. /Cme/

Long term...Sunday through Friday...the southern jetstream will
become more active during the period with a series of shortwaves
affecting the County Warning Area. The Euro,Gem,GFS and their ensembles had some
minor tracking and timing differences with the shortwaves until the
later part of the work week. The models do show some heavy rain
signals for the later part of the work week into Friday night. Precipitable waters
will rise from 1.4 to around 1.8 inches by Friday...which puts it at
the high end percentile and near 2 Standard deviations above normal
for this time of year. By that time upper ridging will build across
The Rockies which will help to develop an upper trough over the
plains. The model qpfs and HPC shows rainfall amounts of 2 to around
4 inches across the southern portions of the region. With this
pattern we could see some training of showers across portions of the
County Warning Area...which could aggravate wet soil conditions. Cips shows a 75th
percentile on some heavy rain potential. So expect chances of rain
for each day. Instability will be generally weak. Went with a blend
of the Euro and GFS on timing and tracking of the southern stream
shortwaves. A stronger upper trough will affect the region for the
later part of the work week into early next weekend for some locally
heavy rainfall. Otherwise expect a general warming trend through the
upcoming work week. Highs will push well into the 60s...which will
bring more normal afternoon highs. Some area may even reach around
70. Lows will move from the 40s to the 50s./17/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 48 25 62 34 / 0 0 0 3
Meridian 50 21 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 47 23 59 33 / 0 0 0 3
Hattiesburg 53 25 65 35 / 0 0 0 7
Natchez 47 23 60 36 / 0 0 0 4
Greenville 41 24 55 34 / 0 0 0 3
Greenwood 44 21 57 33 / 0 0 0 1


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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