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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
908 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

the 00z sounding calculated a 0.89 inch precipitable water this evening. This just
reemphasizes how dry it is across the region. The weather over the
next 24 hours will be relatively quiet. No changes to the forecast
were needed for this update. /10/


VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. /Dl/


Previous discussion... /issued 358 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015/

Remainder of afternoon through Sunday night...

A dry airmass remains entrenched over the region. As previously
discussed...the recent very hot and dry weather has contributed to
an unusual degree of vegetative Browning and this is depicted well in
latest usfs wfas analyses. Rainfall in the past few weeks is around
10% of normal and kbdi values are in excess of 600. The combination
of the hot/dry/breezy conditions continues to support a limited fire
danger threat...but expect decreasing winds Sunday into Monday will
help to mitigate the threat some.

Otherwise...expect high pressure and precipitable water values near
one inch to inhibit convective development. Temperatures could
potentially cool off a little more tonight than last night given the
greater possibility for decoupling. Full sun in the dry airmass will
lead to strong mixing again Sunday with highs reaching the middle/upper
90s. /Ec/

Long term...Monday through Friday night...the dry conditions will
continue for the most part on Monday with precipitable waters below 1.4 inches
over most of the area. Afternoon highs will be a little warmer
climbing into the middle/upper 90s once again. Moisture will begin to
increase from the south as the surface flow does become more
southerly Monday into Monday night. With more moisture across the
area on Tuesday there will be an increase in isolated thunderstorms
along with a return of the humid conditions.

Upper troughing will deepen over the area on Wednesday as northwest
flow returns. Moisture will also increase along with increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Both the GFS/European model (ecmwf) indicate
that a frontal boundary will move into the area Wednesday night into
Thursday bringing with it more chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Hopefully this system will bring some much needed
rainfall across the region. Both the GFS/European model (ecmwf) keep plenty of
moisture across the area on Friday into Saturday with afternoon and
evening scattered thunderstorms. /15/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 69 97 71 98 / 1 1 2 3
Meridian 67 96 69 97 / 1 1 2 3
Vicksburg 65 97 70 98 / 1 1 2 3
Hattiesburg 69 98 74 97 / 2 4 5 10
Natchez 67 96 72 96 / 1 2 2 7
Greenville 68 97 71 98 / 1 1 2 3
Greenwood 67 96 71 97 / 1 1 2 2


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...


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