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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
358 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Discussion...today through Wednesday night...a digging middle/upper
level trough will push a weak front south into and through much of
the County Warning Area during the course of today into tonight. This...coupled
with disturbances embedded in northwest flow aloft...one of which is
responsible for the showers currently seen on radar over my
northwest and north central zones...and daytime heating will again
keep rain chances in the forecast through much of the day. Some
activity could lingering into early this evening...mainly south of
Interstate 20.

Highs today will range from the middle 80s north to around 90
south. Skies will gradually clear north to south overnight...with
some slightly drier air advecting south into the region. This will
result in lows ranging from the middle 60s north to around 70
south.

Rain chances on Wednesday look confined to locales in the
south...mainly along the 84 corridor in the vicinity of the now
stalled front. High pressure will build south into the remainder
of the forecast area...where again a slightly airmass will now
reside. Expected more in the way of sunshine on Wednesday as highs
top out around 90...with lows ranging from the low to upper 60s
Wednesday night under mostly clear skies. /19/

Thursday through next Tuesday...global models continue to show
decent agreement on the pattern evolution through the medium range. The
pattern will be one of transition with a northwest flow type regime in place
a we wrap up the week...followed by a brief period of shortwave
ridging...then a shift to a more amplified pattern for the first half
of next week with a eastern Continental U.S. Trough. What has changed over the
last 24 hours is now the Euro/GFS are in better agreement now on the
period for early next week. Timing is much better on the trough
amplification and southward push of a decent late Sep cool front.

For Thu-Fri...the northwest flow pattern will help push a backdoor front
into part of the County Warning Area. Look for some lower end precipitation chances for Thursday
due to the surface boundary nearing the area and some weak wave aloft
moving by. Overall drier air will move in by later on Thursday night and
into Friday allowing for less precipitation chances for Friday into Sat. Moisture
will return for sun into Monday as the larger trough takes shape and
pushes a stronger front our way. Better precipitation chances look to
return for part of sun into early Monday as moisture gets focused along
and ahead of the front. There area indications that the moisture
could be on the high side as leftover moisture from T.S. Odile may
make its way into the regional circulation as our frontal system
takes shape early next week.

Temperatures will continue to run above climatology norms from Thu-sun. Some
locations (e/ne) may see lows near normal Friday morning but then warm
again over the weekend. Conditions look to shift to more seasonal
readings after the front with some potential for below normal
readings if the pattern can become more amplified. /Cme/

&&

Aviation...with mainly middle and high clouds in abundance over the
region...VFR conditions are currently prevailing at all taf sites
this morning. This is expected to be the case at sites throughout
much of the forecast period. During the afternoon and early evening
hours today...showers and storms developing across the area as a
weak front drops south through the region could result in a brief
bout of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities if convection is observed
within a site's respected Aerodrome. Much of this activity is
forecast to dissipate shortly after sunset this evening. VFR
conditions will continue overnight tonight...but some MVFR
visibilities due to patchy fog can't be ruled out early Wednesday
morning. /19/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 89 67 91 66 / 22 13 7 5
Meridian 89 67 91 64 / 26 12 6 4
Vicksburg 89 64 91 65 / 21 10 7 5
Hattiesburg 90 70 92 70 / 43 28 16 14
Natchez 89 67 91 68 / 33 18 15 13
Greenville 88 65 89 67 / 28 5 2 10
Greenwood 88 64 90 65 / 28 5 2 10

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

19/cme

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