Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
308 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014
Short term...this evening through Saturday night.
Boundary is still dropping southward this afternoon as anticipated.
Scattered showers and storms are currently along and south of the
boundary. With weak 850mb flow...individual storms will not be moving
quickly. Not expecting anymore waterspouts today so hopefully no more
will appear after I send out the discussion today. Storms will begin
waning an hour or two after sunset this evening and should be
dissipated altogether by midnight. Scattered patchy fog can be
expected again after midnight tonight.
The main upper trough axis will continue to push off to the east on
Friday as the upper high over the southwest U.S. Expands eastward
into the south. Rain chances will remain confined to the southeast
portion of Mississippi through the weekend while drier air will
filter in from the north. Mainly only the Delta will get to enjoy the
drier air but that will also be the area which will experience the
hotter temperatures over the weekend. Now that said...I did generally
go with GFS MOS temperatures but did knock down highs for Saturday a degree
or two due to the trend of temperatures struggling to get even to the middle
90s. The drier air will be hort-lived though as the surface flow
rotates to a more southerly direction on Saturday. The southerly
flow and an increase to humidity will cause heat indices in the
afternoon to reach near or above 100 degrees both Saturday and
Long term...Sunday through next Thursday.
A middle level trough will amplify over the Great Lakes region by Monday
which will force the ridge back to the west and allow a surface cold
front to push across the forecast area. This will lead to a chance
of thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. The front will hang up
along the Gulf Coast Tuesday providing a chance for some showers in
the southern forecast area.
The middle level trough will remain amplified through middle week with all
models showing a wave moving across the region in the
Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. Thus...will carry chance probability of precipitation through
the latter part of the forecast.
High tempertures will be near seasonable norms Monday and Tuesday
and then trend below normal by middle week. /SW/
conds have improved since this morning and mostly VFR/MVFR conds are
possible between 18-23z at most taf sites due to thunderstorms and rain...with less chance
at kglh/kgwo. Winds at most taf sites are gradually shifting to the
northwest/north around 5-10 knots...with winds shifting towards SW/west at khbg/kmei.
Expect mix of some fog and lower visible/MVFR conds possible between
25/08-12z at kgwo/kgtr/khbg/kmei...with brief IFR conds possible at
kgwo/kgtr after 25/08z. Some lower stratus is possible at khbg after
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 67 93 71 94 / 15 10 5 6
Meridian 66 92 69 94 / 14 12 5 5
Vicksburg 64 93 68 94 / 12 9 5 5
Hattiesburg 71 93 73 94 / 20 29 11 18
Natchez 68 91 71 92 / 15 19 6 14
Greenville 63 90 68 95 / 4 3 5 5
Greenwood 60 90 66 95 / 5 3 5 5