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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
326 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

Discussion...visible imagery this afternoon showing more breaks in
the persistent low cloud deck...mainly over south MS. With boundarly
layer cooling and nothing to scour out moisture in the inverted
layer...expect cloud deck to congeal once again tonight. Better
mixing during the afternoon Monday will finally allow cloud deck to
break apart...but the absence of an agent to clear the moist layer
suggests that areas of cloud cover will continue to be around.
Despite the deep layered ridging getting underway tomorrow...decided
to cut maximum temperatures a bit as cloud cover will hang on for most of the

Moving forward into the forecast period...cold core low over the southeast
will finally push offshore tonight while another potent low digs
over the SW Continental U.S.. this system will slowly move east and weaken...
eventually phasing with a deepening trough over the northern MS valley
Wednesday night/Thursday. This system will drag a cold front and the
next chance of rain into northwest sections by Friday and areawide by
Saturday. Presently though...weak winds and limited moisture should
spell just light precipitation amounts in areas lucky enough to see


Aviation...the stratus deck has continued to thin and break up some
this afternoon with continued heating...and ceilings should continue to
lift some for the remainder of the afternoon. Going into tonight...
forecast confidence is rather low on expanse of stratus redevelopment.
The hrrr has been stingy with showing redevelopment...but given
little change in the weather pattern...will maintain some lower ceilings
in the tafs...especially at gtr/mei. /Ec/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 58 82 64 85 / 2 2 2 7
Meridian 60 81 62 84 / 5 2 2 6
Vicksburg 58 83 63 88 / 1 2 3 7
Hattiesburg 62 82 64 86 / 4 1 2 5
Natchez 58 82 64 86 / 1 2 3 7
Greenville 58 82 63 87 / 1 2 2 6
Greenwood 57 82 62 86 / 2 2 2 6


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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