Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
330 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Short term...the morning soundings showed drier air aloft over the
County Warning Area but the blended total precipitable water product shows two inch
precipitable waters surging back north over the southwest two thirds of our County Warning Area.
This increase in deep moisture was combining with temperatures in
the low to middle 90s to develop a little greater coverage of showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. Have increased probability of precipitation this afternoon
across much of the area although isolated coverage is still expected
in the northeast. Convection will dissipate early this evening.
Overnight temperatures will again bottom out a little above
normal...in the middle 70s at most sites. A weak surface ridge will
nose across the our County Warning Area from the east through Wednesday while a
rather flat middle level ridge resides overhead. This will result in a
persistence forecast for the short term with warmer than normal
temperatures through the period. By Tuesday precipitable waters will be back at or
above two inches areawide. In the absence of significant morning
cloudiness...temperatures will warm up rapidly. The warm
temperatures will combine with the moist airmass for scattered
coverage of afternoon and evening storms. It will be hard to rule
out a strong thunderstorm or two but overall...parameters do not
look that favorable for wet microbursts the next two afternoons.
/22/

Long term...Thursday through Sunday...GFS/ECMWF in agreement this
period in that pattern over the lower Continental U.S. Will be dominated by
flat relatively weak deep layered ridge. As middle/upper ridge axis
looks to remain anchored over north MS...flow over the area will
remain easterly and affected by any waves moving along the Gulf
Coast. Low level flow will remain southerly as well serving to keep
moisture plentiful with precipitable water/S remaining around 2 inches.

Hard to find any significant waves in the flow during this period.
While the lower levels look to benefit most from the warming from
the ridge...mid/upper level temperatures remain somewhat cool (near -10c at
h5) allowing for afternoon vertical totals in the middle 20s. Believe
isolated/scattered convection will dominate each
afternoon/evening...most numerous in the south. Sea breeze activity
looks to enhance convection over the south...but weak onshore flow
should limit its northward extent each day.

A weak frontal boundary looks to dip into northern MS on Sunday
serving to increase convective potential over the north by that
time./26/

&&

Aviation...scattered showers and locally embedded thunderstorms
will move north through predominantly southern and western portions
of the region through the remainder of the afternoon...but should
diminish rapidly in the early evening hours. Some patches of MVFR
conditions are possible in the heavier downpours this afternoon but
conditions should mainly be VFR with winds occasionally gusty from
the south near showers. Late tonight anticipate widespread MVFR to
locally IFR conditions to develop by daybreak Tuesday. Potential for
locally dense fog and/or IFR flight cats is highest at pib/hbg area
of the Pine belt. Flight cats will improve through the morning
tomorrow...as is typical...with more more scattered afternoon
showers and storms anticipated later Tuesday. /Bb/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 75 94 73 95 / 13 39 23 31
Meridian 72 94 71 95 / 8 28 24 29
Vicksburg 74 94 72 94 / 16 43 20 30
Hattiesburg 74 95 75 96 / 16 33 24 33
Natchez 74 92 74 93 / 17 44 22 30
Greenville 74 93 73 95 / 9 41 19 30
Greenwood 73 94 73 95 / 7 41 24 35

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

22/26/bb

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations