Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
400 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Discussion...some clearing is being seen around the region and on
visible satellite imagery. Clouds have mostly cleared across the
Delta and the clearing line appears to be around the Natchez trace.
Surface winds have been veering through the day and this has helped
bring in drier air into the region and begun the clearing process.
Upper low and surface low can also be seen spinning across Missouri this
afternoon and they should be slowly tracking off to the east and
northeast through the remainder of the afternoon into tonight.
Morning convection that brought mostly rain to portions of the Pine
belt and severe weather just south of my County Warning Area continues to move east
of the region. This should be the end to the rain for at least a
couple of days. Shortwave ridging will move into the region for
Sunday...allowing for a dry but fairly warm day. This comes ahead of
a cold front that will be moving south toward the arklamiss region
in association with the eastward moving surface low. As is generally the
case ahead of a boundary...temperatures will warm and we should see
highs into the middle 80s tomorrow. This front wont plow through the
region...and in fact should slowly ooze into the County Warning Area through the day
tomorrow before stalling across the southern portions of my County Warning Area.
Shortwave ridging should continue through Monday but moisture and
potentially some chances for rain will return to the southwestern
portions of my County Warning Area by later on Monday. This comes as another upper
low spins across OK/Texas and a weak surface low/inverted trough develops
in the western Gulf of Mexico near the stalled boundary. Both of
these features will track east through Wednesday...increasing
rain/storm chances once again across the arklamiss region. Given the
more southern track of this surface low as compared to previous
systems...potent/strong/severe storms dont look to be a concern at
this time. Some thunder will be possible given some elevated
instability across the region. Slightly cooler air will move into
the region and result in highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
Despite the highs for tomorrow...Summer wont be starting just yet. A
dry conditions look to continue for the rest of the period as upper
ridging should take hold of the region. /28/
Aviation...convective complex is moving southeast of the pib
area...but isolated storms are still possible late this afternoon.
Otherwise...moist lower levels will keep the potential for IFR/LIFR
category stratus to redevelop late tonight...mainly along/S of the
tvr-Jan-mei corridor. The shallow moist layer should mix out quickly
by middle morning with VFR conditions expected thereafter. /Ec/
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 67 87 60 76 / 8 5 9 24
Meridian 66 86 58 75 / 8 5 7 10
Vicksburg 66 86 61 76 / 7 6 14 28
Hattiesburg 68 89 65 80 / 8 4 9 27
Natchez 67 87 64 76 / 6 4 19 43
Greenville 62 81 58 70 / 6 5 12 15
Greenwood 62 81 56 72 / 8 5 9 11