Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
330 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015
Short term...today through Monday night...another dry/pleasant...
albeit...hot day is in store today as an unseasonably dry airmass
remains entrenched across the forecast area. As was the case
yesterday...the August sun will take full advantage of this dry
airmass allowing temperatures to shoot up into the middle/upper 90s in a deep
mixing regime. With the surface high pressure ridge...currently over
the Tennessee Valley...dipping a little further south today...mixed layer
winds will be somewhat less resulting in surface winds generally less
than 10 miles per hour.
Minimum relative humidities will fall into the 20-30 percent range
again this afternoon...but wind speeds will be lower than yesterday.
Nevertheless...limited fire danger will still exist...especially in
grassy areas that have browned out from the recent hot/dry
conditions. Fire danger conditions should begin to improve somewhat
moving into Monday as low level winds become more southerly allowing
higher dewpoints/relative humidities to move northward from the Gulf
Long term...Tuesday through Saturday night...moisture will increase
across the west and south on Tuesday as southerly flow increases.
With more moisture across the area on Tuesday there will be an
increase in isolated thunderstorms along with a return of the humid
Upper troughing will deepen over the area on Wednesday as northwest
flow returns. Moisture will also increase with the GFS/European model (ecmwf)
indicating a fairly strong short wave moving across the area kicking
off showers and thunderstorms. Little will change on Thursday with
precipitable waters ranging from 1.8-2.0 inches and another round of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. The heat will return during this
period also...with afternoon heat indices once again climbing above
105 degrees. Heat advisories will once again probably be needed
during this period.
Both the GFS/European model (ecmwf) are in decent agreement of the upper trough
deepening over the area on Friday into Saturday and dropping a
frontal boundary across the area over the weekend./15/
Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period./26/
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 98 69 99 72 / 1 2 4 5
Meridian 95 67 97 68 / 4 2 5 5
Vicksburg 97 69 98 73 / 1 2 4 4
Hattiesburg 94 72 96 74 / 8 3 7 11
Natchez 95 70 96 74 / 2 3 5 6
Greenville 96 70 98 73 / 2 1 4 3
Greenwood 95 69 97 73 / 1 1 4 3