Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
826 PM CDT Friday Sep 4 2015
overall similar forecast to last night. Airmass has not changed much
overall in the last 24 hours as precipitable waters are in the 1.7 inch range with
more moisture along the coast and drier conditions to the N/E.
Therefore...would not rule out some patchy fog/low clouds in S/southeast MS
overnight as we had this morning. Hrrr isn't hinting as much for more
widespread patchy fog so kept it out of the grids overnight. Overall
adjusted probability of precipitation to account for chances for showers in central/southeast MS for
next few hours until 03z. Based on lows last night and current
dewpoint trends...adjusted lows slightly. Quiet night is in store
with high clouds thinning overnight. /DC/
Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail for the most part through
Saturday...but expect a repeat of patchy MVFR category fog in the
09- 14z time frame given little in the way of airmass change during
the past 24 hours. Per latest hrrr guidance...the LIFR stratus/fog
potential in the hbg area doesn't look quite as great as it was
earlier this morning...but it will still be something to consider.
Otherwise...afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms and rain coverage will be fairly sparse again
Saturday...especially north of hbg and have left any mention in the
Previous discussion... /issued 434 PM CDT Friday Sep 4 2015/
Discussion...no big changes to the forecast. The pattern does not
appear to change until the end of next week with the next cold front.
Stuck with guidance temperatures. Went with a blend for probability of precipitation. The GFS
kept the best probability of precipitation in south/southwest...but based on today and the
very little change expected over the next few days...thinking central
and east Mississippi may get a few showers and thunderstorms also.
While there will be afternoon/evening convection expected each
day...instability looks limited across the area...so the severe weather potential statement will
remain clear through the short term.
Models were consistent...keeping Summer going for the next week.
Southeast winds bring in some moisture...but afternoon mixing and a
light breeze allow temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 90s
for the next few days. A few places were near 100 this afternoon.
The area seems to be trapped an upper ridge to the west and an upper
low over the northern Gulf. As the systems shift back and forth...move
east and retrograde a time or two...over the next few
days...convection will increase. By middle week...rain chances will
increase...mainly south of Interstate 20. The upper low finally gets
picked up the front at the end of the week...bringing a cooler/drier
Models suggest a weak wave will move out of the Gulf Saturday
afternoon/evening which supports the large area of convection going
through late Saturday. Left small rain chances in across the area for
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 73 95 72 94 / 13 24 19 31
Meridian 71 94 69 91 / 11 22 19 25
Vicksburg 72 96 69 94 / 10 23 19 27
Hattiesburg 73 95 72 93 / 14 29 19 50
Natchez 73 92 72 92 / 11 31 19 50
Greenville 72 98 71 96 / 10 17 11 9
Greenwood 72 95 69 93 / 10 15 10 14
District of Columbia/ec