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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
418 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

..increasing fire weather danger as we go through the week...


Tonight through Friday...dry northwest flow aloft and weak high
pressure at the surface are the main weather features over the
arklamiss. Very dry conditions continue to lead to overachieving of
diurnal mixing with relative humidity having dropped to near 10% this
afternoon while surface temperatures approach 90f...well above recent
model guidance forecasts. For the next couple of days... expect
continued strong diurnal mixing with wide daily temperature ranges in
the very dry airmass...and have increased guidance consensus highs
and cut lows to reflect this thinking. 40+ degree f temperature swings
should be common. Have also cut back on daytime dewpoint

For Friday...a dry cold front is expected to move through and this
could pose problems for fire weather due to the increased pressure
gradient and continued low daytime relative humidity values. Assuming there isn't
much change in the is possible that a red flag warning
will become necessary for Friday pending coordination with state
agencies. /Ec/

Friday night through Tuesday...

Dry weather is expected for whole long term period as precipitable waters look to
remain less than one inch until Tuesday night when deep moisture will
increase in earnest from the southwest. High pressure surface and
aloft will dominate over our region this weekend through Monday but
shift east and weaken Tuesday into next Wednesday. Cooler than normal
temperatures are expected this weekend through Monday and then near
normal temperatures Tuesday. This may allow for better rain chances
for the middle of next week. /22/


Aviation...VFR flight categories will continue for the remainder of
the afternoon and into tonight. A brief bout of MVFR/IFR visibilities
can't be ruled out around sunrise Wednesday morning due to some
patchy shallow ground fog that could develop as the result of good
radiational cooling conditions overnight. Winds will become light to
calm as we progress through this evening. /19/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 49 89 51 92 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 45 85 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 47 88 47 91 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 48 86 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 49 86 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 50 89 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 48 88 49 90 / 0 0 0 0


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...




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