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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
331 PM CST sun Feb 7 2016

Short term...tonight through Tuesday night...under high pressure
centered southwest of our County Warning Area...the resulting southwest to west flow
has combined with a dry air mass and sunny skies to allow
temperatures to climb up slightly above normal. Most sites will top
out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures tonight will not be
as cold as last night and bottom out closer to normal in the middle 30s
at most locations. Above normal temperatures will be hard to come by
this week though as a change back to cooler temperatures is expected
Monday. Middle afternoon water vapor imagery/rap analysis indicated a
nearly stacked low over the upper Mississippi River valley with the
associated cold front extending south across the middle Mississippi
River valley and then southwest nearing the arklatex region. A
shortwave noted dropping south over the Central Plains this afternoon
will round the base of the trough Monday further deepening the upper
level trough and supporting the cold front as it moves through our
County Warning Area. Breezy northwest winds will develop in the wake of the cold
front that is expected to move over into our northwest zones before
sunrise and be southeast of our County Warning Area by noon. Anomalously cold
temperatures aloft will drop over our County Warning Area and lead to cold stratocu
development that will cover at least the northeast two thirds of our
County Warning Area. Model consensus suggests low chances of light rain across our
northeast zones during the day Monday. The is a low chance that the
cold air aloft may produce a brief snow flurry or two before the rain
ends. Will not carry mention of this in the forecast. The main
shortwave will shift east Monday evening and the closed low will
track east across the Great Lakes region Monday night then northeast
Tuesday. A rather amplified upper level trough will remain in place
over the eastern Continental U.S. Through Tuesday night but precipitation
chances will end Monday evening over our County Warning Area and dry weather is
expected through Wednesday. Temperatures Monday will be colder than
normal again and range from the upper 40s northeast to the middle 50s
south. Tuesday morning lows will be back in the 20s over most of our
area. Sunny skies and lighter winds are expected Tuesday but highs
will be held in the 40s northeast and 50s elsewhere. With the
exception of the southwest...morning lows will be back below freezing
Wednesday morning. /22/

Long term...Wednesday through Saturday...last nights runs of the
GFS/European model (ecmwf) indicate the amplified flow regime will stay in place over
the region a bit longer than previous runs indicated. This means that
the expected moderation in temperatures will be slower to occur through the

Dry weather will prevail for much of the upcoming week...however as
flow does begin to relax late in the period...a weak shortwave and
its surface reflection will be dropping southeast out of The Rockies.
Meanwhile...surface high pressure will finally shift east by
Thursday night with winds becoming more southerly as moist low level
return flow begins. As the surface low moves into OK/Texas by Friday
morning...moist isentropic ascent over the dry air at the surface
will result in light rains breaking out over Arkansas. The weak system
will continue to move southeast in the it does so...light
isentropic rains will spread over north MS Friday into Friday night. The
low finally pulls aways to the east Saturday...but its trailing weak
front will support a few sprinkles Saturday as it drifts through the
area. /26/


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through the
next 24 hours. Winds will shift out of the west/northwest behind a
cold front later tonight into Monday. Speeds will be around 10kts
this afternoon with some higher gusts in the Delta. Winds will be
around 15-20kts sustained Monday out of the northwest. Gusts
will be near 30kts in the Delta but closer to 20kts elsewhere. /28/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 36 53 28 49 / 1 5 1 1
Meridian 34 53 27 46 / 1 8 5 1
Vicksburg 36 53 29 51 / 1 3 1 1
Hattiesburg 36 56 28 52 / 1 2 1 1
Natchez 37 55 31 50 / 1 2 1 1
Greenville 37 50 30 48 / 1 6 3 1
Greenwood 36 49 28 46 / 3 9 8 2


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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