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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1005 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015 will be a very pleasant Thanksgiving day across the
arklamiss region. Temperatures this morning have already climbed
into the middle to upper 60s across the western half while lower 60s
are being seen across the eastern half. These temperatures are about
5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. All of this is thanks in
part to our location on the western periphery of a sprawling surface
high centered over Nova Scotia...a building upper ridge over the
region and gusty southerly winds helping to bring in moisture and
warmer conditions. Some low to middle level clouds to our west will
continue to move into the region...especially the western half of
the arklamiss. These clouds could impede warming today but I feel
that we should reach well into the 70s across teh area. With
that...and the warming already occurring this morning...I have
raised high temperatures a few degrees in many locations. Some sites
should reach the middle to maybe even upper 70s today. This should make
for rather nice weather to burn off all of the Holiday food many
will consume today. Happy Thanksgiving to all in the arklamiss! /28/


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail into part of the overnight
with a transition to MVFR ceilings/visible after 08-09z. Look for the
ceilings to migrate northward through the 08-12z timeframe. The
other item will be the gusty southeast winds today. Current tafs handle
those well. Look for the winds to diminish around 23-00z with values
less than 10kts overnight. Southeast winds will exist Friday...but
speeds/gusts will be less than today. /Cme/


Previous discussion... /issued 335 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/

Discussion...Happy Thanksgiving from the midnight shift here at weather forecast office

Thanksgiving through Friday night...mild and breezy will essentially
sum up the 2015 editions of both Thanksgiving and black Friday across
the arklamiss. Ridging aloft resulting in south to southwest flow
aloft over the addition to east to southeast flow at the
surface...will continue to result in a subtle increase in moisture
levels across the forecast area. With partly to mostly cloudy skies
expected each day and night across much of the County Warning Area...highs both today
and Friday will top out in the low to middle 70s. Overnight lows
tonight and Friday night will also remain they range from
the middle 50s to lower 60s.

With the before mentioned surface high wedged into the region from
the east and a developing storm system out west over the Southern
Plains...the pressure gradient will remain over the arklamiss
through week's end. This will result in breezy east to southeast
winds across the region...with some gusts around 25 miles per hour possible.
Winds will generally subside to between 5-10 miles per hour overnight.

Some showers could creep back into the forecast...primarily over the
Delta Region...during the late afternoon Friday and into Friday
night. A cold front trying to shift east toward the region
Friday...will meet some resistance as both ridging aloft and high
pressure hold firm across the forecast area. Probability of precipitation across the Delta
during this time will be in the 20-30% range...with the remainder of
the County Warning Area currently forecast to remain dry through at least the next
48 hours. /19/

Saturday through next Wednesday...the primary concern in the
extended is precipitation timing for late this week into next week.

As we move into the weekend into next week the operational models and
ensembles are still having some timing differences with the rainfall
across the region through the weekend into the middle of next week.
The upper pattern of the ensembles and operational models all showed
the general same solution as the upper closed low over the southwest
lifts out into the northern US. This will be followed by a weaker
upper trough settling over the western US by early next week.
So made minor adjustments to blended guidance. We will have some
short wave ridging over the region during the weekend as southwest
US closed low trough pushes weak impulses across the region. A cold
front will be approaching the region on Saturday from the west.
Shortwave ridging will help to keep the rain confined to the
northwest half through Saturday night. Heights will eventually lower
across the region as a cold front pushes into the region. This will
spread rain across the County Warning Area with very weak instability. The front
will become stationary by Monday. This will help to keep our chances
of rain through Tuesday night. The front will exit the region on
Tuesday. Models differ on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The GFS and
Canadian brings isentropic lift for another round of rainfall for
Tuesday night through Wednesday coming in from the west...while the
Euro brings in the next chance of rain later in the work week. Do
not see any thunder with such weak instability so will keep it all

As far as temperatures are concern looking for mild temperatures for this weekend
with highs in the 60s to lower 70s which is a little above
normal...then cooling to mainly the 50s behind the front on
Wednesday. Lows will start on the mild side with lows in the 50s
over the weekend before cooling to the 30s and 40s by Wednesday


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 77 58 73 58 / 2 5 9 7
Meridian 74 54 73 54 / 2 5 5 5
Vicksburg 76 61 74 61 / 2 7 12 12
Hattiesburg 75 56 76 56 / 2 7 5 4
Natchez 75 61 74 61 / 2 7 11 9
Greenville 75 60 71 61 / 2 9 25 25
Greenwood 76 59 73 60 / 2 6 15 14


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...



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