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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1122 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Update...going forecast is in good shape. Mostly sunny skies are
prevailing this morning but some cloud cover should move in as the
upper trough moves over the region. Some rain...already indicated
over northern Mississippi...should move into at least the northern
sections of the County Warning Area this afternoon. Have left probability of precipitation in for these
places but cut for locations further south. This is also suggested
by many of the hi-res short term guidance. Updated products have been
issued. /28/

Aviation...all sites are VFR this morning and expect these conditions to
continue through the period. There could be a few light rainshowers
this afternoon at gtr/mei but expect ceilings to remain VFR. The
winds will remain out of the northwest to north with gusts to 25kts
likely at glh this afternoon./15/


Previous discussion... /issued 313 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015/

Discussion...short through Saturday night... latest
satellite imagery indicated a broad upper trough axis about to phase
toward the lower Mississippi Valley region. Clouds associated with
the upper trough was pushing toward the region from the Ozarks which
was associated with some very light rain. On the surface in the wake
of the front some breezy north winds was noted across the region
with readings in the 40s and 50s.

For today models show that the broad upper trough axis will pass
through the region. Hires and short range models shows some patchy
very light rain moving across the County Warning Area. With precipitable waters around a half
inch..expecting only some patchy very light rain or sprinkles for
the most most part as some of it wont reach the ground. This will be
mainly during the afternoon. It will be a cool day in the wake of
the front with highs from the middle 50s north to the upper 60s
southwest. Temperatures across the north half will be from 10 to 17 degrees
below normal for this time of year. The upper trough axis will push
to the east for tonight. It will be a cool night with lows in the
30s and 40s. Not looking for any freezing temperatures in the northeast.

For Saturday into Saturday night a short wave will push into the
region from the northwest. It will bring some light showers across
portions of the north and east. It will be another cool day with
highs from the lower 50s north to the around 70 southwest. This will
bring temperatures around 20 degrees below normal in the north. Expect the
light rain to exit the region by Saturday night. It will be another
cold night with lows from the middle 30s northeast to around 50

Long term...Sunday through next Friday...high pressure east of the
region will result in southerly flow returning to the forecast area
Sunday...and warmer conditions ensuing. Sunday night into
Monday...a shortwave dropping into the southeast United States will
cause a cold front to sink south into the forecast area and stall as
it loses it's middle/upper level support. This will bring a return to
rain chances across the County Warning Area on Monday.

This front will begin to lift back to the north on Tuesday in
response to the first in a series of disturbances embedded in
westerly flow aloft that'll traverse the lower Mississippi River
valley Wednesday through Friday. As the front lifts north...
moisture will surge into forecast area through Friday. All the
above...coupled with daytime heating...will essentially equate to
chances for showers and storms lingering in the forecast through the
work week...with warm humid conditions expected. /19/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 59 39 63 44 / 14 5 9 4
Meridian 60 37 60 40 / 14 13 15 7
Vicksburg 61 40 65 46 / 14 6 6 3
Hattiesburg 65 40 68 46 / 14 4 5 7
Natchez 65 42 69 49 / 13 2 2 2
Greenville 57 38 56 42 / 15 8 12 5
Greenwood 55 37 55 40 / 16 13 21 7


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...


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