Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
434 PM CDT Friday Sep 4 2015
Discussion...no big changes to the forecast. The pattern does not
appear to change until the end of next week with the next cold front.
Stuck with guidance temperatures. Went with a blend for probability of precipitation. The GFS
kept the best probability of precipitation in south/southwest...but based on today and the
very little change expected over the next few days...thinking central
and east Mississippi may get a few showers and thunderstorms also.
While there will be afternoon/evening convection expected each
day...instability looks limited across the area...so the severe weather potential statement will
remain clear through the short term.
Models were consistent...keeping Summer going for the next week.
Southeast winds bring in some moisture...but afternoon mixing and a
light breeze allow temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 90s
for the next few days. A few places were near 100 this afternoon.
The area seems to be trapped an upper ridge to the west and an upper
low over the northern Gulf. As the systems shift back and forth...move
east and retrograde a time or two...over the next few
days...convection will increase. By middle week...rain chances will
increase...mainly south of Interstate 20. The upper low finally gets
picked up the front at the end of the week...bringing a cooler/drier
Models suggest a weak wave will move out of the Gulf Saturday
afternoon/evening which supports the large area of convection going
through late Saturday. Left small rain chances in across the area for
Aviation...isolated showers and a few thunderstorms may impact a
random site across the region briefly this afternoon with temporary
MVFR restrictions and wind gusts perhaps up to 30 kts. Tonight
expect patchy MVFR visible reductions toward morning with potential of
any IFR conditions likely limited to pib/hbg. Outside of any showers
or storms winds will tend to be light and variable. /Bb/
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 72 95 72 94 / 16 24 19 31
Meridian 70 94 69 91 / 16 22 19 25
Vicksburg 71 96 69 94 / 17 23 19 27
Hattiesburg 73 95 72 93 / 21 29 19 50
Natchez 73 92 72 92 / 23 31 19 50
Greenville 71 98 71 96 / 16 17 11 9
Greenwood 69 95 69 93 / 16 15 10 14