Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
357 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

issued at 356 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

High pressure will slowly build in across the region over the next
24 hours bringing clearing skies and light winds. Afternoon highs
will reach the lower to middle 50s with lows tonight dropping into
the middle 30s.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 356 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Upper level low...centered over West Virginia...will continue east
southeast reaching eastern North Carolina around 12z Wednesday and then
further intensifying off the East Coast. While any rain will stay
away and skies will clear out across the entire area by late
afternoon...a north to northeast flow will persist until later
tonight with upper level ridge moves in from the plains and allow
winds to calm. This flow will keep temperatures below normal with
highs in the low to middle 50s. Another cool night will be in store
with lows dropping back into the middle 30s under clear skies and light


Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 356 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Pattn breakdown to zonal follow aloft expected this period. Short amplitude
ridge across the MS valley this morning will drive eastward ahead of eastward
ejecting SW trough across southern Canada which will result in steadily
moderating temperatures through Tuesday. Surface cold front in association/west Canadian wave
will essentially wash out west/eastward extend on Thursday as parent wave shears
out through James Bay. Moisture rtn non-existent as ll anticyclone
persists across the Gomex and suspect even slight chance probability of precipitation Thursday night
will bust.

However new system rolling in off the epac this weekend looks to dig southeastward
through the Southern Plains early next week and then eject out through the
southern lakes lt Tuesday. Development of broad southwesterly follow within renewed Continental U.S.
Amplified pattn and dy7 timing would portend a rtn to equilibrium
across the Gomex which would Foster a more sig ll moisture/Theta-E rtn
into the Ohio Valley. Will cautiously increment probability of precipitation a bit higher.

Otrws temperatures rtng to above normal by Friday and continuing through Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 123 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

VFR ceilings have moved into kfwa over the past couple of hours as
upper low continues to slowly shift southeast away from the area.
RUC model shows some potential for MVFR ceilings still upstream in
eastern Michigan to possibly rotate back into kfwa overnight. For now
satellite trends suggest otherwise so will keep with clearing. No
flight issues at ksbn through the period with the same being true
at kfwa for sure after 15z Wednesday with the upper level system far
enough away to pose no issue. Light NE flow will persist.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...



short term...Fisher
long term...T

Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx (all lower case)

Follow US on facebook...twitter...and youtube at:

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations