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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
400 am EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

issued at 347 am EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Dry and increasingly warmer weather will be in store for the
region as high pressure slowly drifts east. Highs today are
expected to reach into the lower 70s with lows tonight dropping to
around 50.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 347 am EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Surface observation showing sporadic visibility drops in several locations as
ground fog was trying to develop. Will monitor through sunrise but
risk for more widespread fog (dense fog) looks very low.

Cut off upper level energy was meander eastward across Virginia
through the period. This will help push the deeper moisture further
east and allow somewhat warmer air to continue to spill in.
Soundings show mixing through 875 to 850 mb which should yield highs
in the lower 70s for most locations. Have stayed a touch cooler in
southeast areas but did raise compared to previous forecast with highs
approaching 70. One more cool night in store with lows dropping to
around 50 and generally clear skies.


Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 347 am EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Model consensus of period of blocked middle tropopause flow to develop by
midweek and persist into the weekend as Gulf of Alaska energy becomes
cutoff across northern California late Wednesday. Heights build across cntl Continental U.S. Into western
Great Lakes while initial shortwave ejection to become increasingly
sheared out as it lifts northeastward from intmtn region through northern plains and
western Great Lakes by Wednesday night. Somewhat confidently have eschewed dry
forecast with salient cuts against low chances afforded by blended probability of precipitation
until Friday. Lack of low level moisture recovery into County Warning Area /Theta-east
plume held well west of County Warning Area/ along with meager middle level lapse
rates...with County Warning Area twixt plains focus and slow eastward shifting
cutoff through Tennessee Valley into Carolinas...affording quite weak deep
layer shear/col. More succinct shortwave to eject through periphery
of plains ridge dy4/5 timeframe with at least diffuse surface boundary to
approach western Great Lakes then lying out in east/west fashion through southern
Great Lakes...settling into Ohio Valley Sat. Target best chances for thunderstorms and rain
Friday/Friday night timeframe. High degree of uncertainty toward end of
forecast period conceding blended probability of precipitation...with addnl effects/thunderstorms and rain chances
associated with northern stream shortwaves emanating from prolific
upstream/Gulf of Alaska vortex.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 119 am EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Fog loop showing area of stratus trying to work westward through
Northwest Ohio with RUC trying to move this west into portions of NE
Indiana including kfwa. Kaoh briefly reported 5sm in fog but this
has since ended. Will be leaving tempo group at kfwa since it
likely won't take much to get some patchy fog vicinity of terminal.
Otherwise will monitor westward trend of stratus for possible
amendment. At worries with little more than some passing
cirrus tonight.

On Tuesday...few VFR cumulus may probability of precipitation late am into late afternoon but
will quickly disspate and leave behind clear skies.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Fisher
long term...Murphy

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