Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
353 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

issued at 658 am EST Friday Nov 27 2015

Rain will gradually end from northwest to southeast as a cold
front moves across the area. Temperatures will fall into the 40s
behind the front behind the front. Intermittent light drizzle is
possible. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.


Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 352 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

The cold front was between feet Wayne and Lima this afternoon.
The front will continue to move southeast across the area as much
colder air spreads south. Isentropic surfaces in the low levels
indicate downglide through early tonight...although the front may
temporarily stall overnight with areas of drizzle or very light rain
possible north of the front. For this package...kept just rain in
the forecast to avoid confusion with rain and drizzle. Much drier
air will spread into the area Saturday...with clearing skies from
the north. Raised lows a little tonight. There is an outside chance
for a brief rain/snow mix before the precipitation ends. Given the
mild temperatures the past few not expect any travel
issues or icy conditions tonight.


Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 352 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015
cold front in associated/west northern extension of splitting upper trough
will settle southward along the Ohio River short term and through the Tennessee Valley
on sun. In light of near term southward push and across the board trend west/12z
guidance have cut probability of precipitation through Monday am. In addn...central rockies
closed low a bit slwr to open and eject out across the Central Plains
early next week and delayed ramp to likely probability of precipitation to Monday night-early
Tuesday timed west/northward surging frontal zone.

Vigorous/deep cyclonic follow follows through the lakes Tuesday night/Wednesday
west/a few spits of rain or snow probable within moist ll cold air advection
Wing.Otrws dry and seasonably cool weather follows in wake of this system
lt period.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 138 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

The cold front was just northwest of feet Wayne before the valid
period of the taf. The front will continue to move southeast
across northern Indiana. Isentropic surfaces in the low levels
indicate downglide. Colder but drier will continue to spread into
the area behind the front. Expect the IFR and MVFR conditions to
start improving late in the taf period. Sbn taf may be too
optimistic with conditions becoming VFR before 18z.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Saturday for lmz043-046.



short term...skipper
long term...T

Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx (all lower case)

Follow US on facebook...twitter...and youtube at:

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations