Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
423 am EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
issued at 727 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014
A cold front will move southeast out of the area this morning
ending shower and thunderstorm activity by this afternoon. Canadian
high pressure will move southeast into the Midwest behind the
front today and tonight bringing much cooler temperatures. Highs
today will be in the 70s with lows tonight in the middle 50s.
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 414 am EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
Mesoscale convective system which formed along cold front as it moved across the area overnight
was moving southeast across northern portions of Ohio/in/IL early this morning...
however storms were back-building across southern portion of our County Warning Area with
S-southeast movement becoming rather slow in this area and there is also
considerable amount of stratiform rainfall behind the main line.
Thus slowed ending time of showers/thunderstorms today a bit from previous
forecast... should end across the entire area by this afternoon. Otrws
expect decreasing cloudiness through the day as drier air moves in
behind the strong cold front. With strong cold air advection this morning... temperatures
not expected to rise much from current readings with highs ranging
from around 70 northwest to the u70s southeast. Canadian high pressure will
build into the upper Great Lakes tonight resulting in clearing skies and
diminishing winds in our area. Lowered mins a bit but light gradient
winds should persist in our area overnight with high pressure
center moving slowly southeast across WI... so leaned toward warmer
guidance mins in the m50s across the area.
Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 414 am EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
Surface ridge axis will drift across the region for the start of the
period...with mostly sunny skies and much more pleasant
Major change in upper flow will occur once again going into the
second half of the period (and possibly beyond). Strong closed low
well advertised by GFS/gefs/ECMWF/Gem over southern Saskatchewan
Friday night. A weak disturbance will be ahead of this feature
moving through the Midwest into the Great Lakes. Majority of the
models continue to hint at chance probability of precipitation in association with this and a
decent warm front which will move into the area. No sig changes to
probability of precipitation with generally Middle Range chance probability of precipitation warranted at this stage. A
roughly 550 dm upper low will move to east of James Bay by Sunday
morning with the closed low moving into the region Sunday into
Monday. This will aid in extending the probability of precipitation further into the
extended with chance probability of precipitation still looking good. From this point models do
diverge with European model (ecmwf) remaining stronger and much further south with
closed low vs more northerly solution of GFS. While best option
would normally be to lean towards European model (ecmwf)...last deeper upper low
setup was better advertised by GFS. Given the differences...can't
see adding any more probability of precipitation in Monday night into Tuesday.
In terms of temperatures...does not look like any record breaking "cold"
with this next system as coldest air remains well north of the area.
However...roller coaster of near normal to below normal temperatures looks
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 112 am EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
Thunderstorms and rain which developed along the cold front this evening moving into northwestern
Indiana at this time. Will continue tempo thunderstorms and rain mention into for next couple of
hours at sbn... also added thunderstorms and rain to FWA from 07-09z... though confidence
not as high for this terminal as storms moving into an area with
higher cin. Cold front still expected to move through the area early
this morning with brisk north-northwest winds developing behind it. Some MVFR
ceilings behind the front over northern Michigan should move through northern Indiana
during the morning with ceilings scattering out in the afternoon.
in...beach hazards statement through Thursday morning for inz003.
Michigan...Beach hazards statement through Thursday morning for miz077.
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Thursday for lmz043-046.
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