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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
532 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

issued at 510 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Cooler air will spread over the area behind a cold front today
with nearly steady temperatures in the low to middle 60s. A ridge of
high pressure will move across the region Saturday with pleasant
weather. Return flow on the back side of the high pressure area
will cause temperatures to rise above normal Sunday and Monday
with highs well into the 70s. Little if any rain is expected the
next several days.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 334 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

A short wave was moving southeast across the region...associated
with a cold front. The front was just entering Northwest Indiana
and far southwest lower Michigan early this morning and will move
across the forecast area early today. A large area of low clouds
will spread over the region behind the front this morning and
early this afternoon. The clouds and the cooler air will greatly
limit any daytime temperature rises. Subsidence behind the short
wave trough will help skies to begin clearing this afternoon. Winds
should become light tonight under a clear to partly cloudy sky.


Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 334 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Parade of progressive northern stream SW/S expected to continue
amplifying eastward through central/eastern Canada this period. Thus generally
yielding dry and dusty weather along west/increasing diurnal spreads especially
within next vigorous ll thermal ridge sun-Mon.

Strong rebound out of short term ll thermal trough expected as Erly as Sat
afternoon timed west/southeastward progression of surface ridge in vicinity of the Ohio River and ahead
of Lee side troughing extending southward from vigorous surface cyclone spinning
up across western Canada. Hard to best blended GFS/ec based MOS guidance
and bumped temperatures through Monday in accordance west/unseasonably strong
thermal ridge folding eastward out of the plains.

Otrws ll anticyclone stuck across the Gomex in combination
west/vegetative canopy associated evapotranspiration shutting down offers
dismal chances for sufficient moisture rtn inadv of trailing cold front Monday
afternoon. Thus strongly prefer to limit overall rain chance Monday afternoon-Erly evening.

Thereafter pattn looks to become rather amplified through eastern Canada
resulting in cooling temperatures for a time lt period before follow turns more zonal
again lt next weekend.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 509 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Scattered showers had moved east of Fort Wayne early this morning
ahead of a cold front. At this time...the front was between Fort
Wayne and South Bend...and will continue to move east. Post
frontal clouds will spread over northern Indiana behind the front.
A very brief irf ceiling is possible just after the front passes
Fort Wayne. For now...kept a mention of MVFR ceilings for several
hours this morning until close to noon until deeper subsidence
occurs over the area. Did not include any IFR conditions at this
time. Skies should clear this afternoon with winds becoming light


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Saturday for lmz043-046.



short term...skipper
long term...T

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