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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
146 am EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

issued at 1038 am EST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Areas of fog...light rain and drizzle will continue this evening
in advance of a cold front. The cold front will change the light
precipitation to a period of light snow before ending by
daybreak. Lows will fall into the middle teens across Northwest
Indiana to the middle 20s near Lima Ohio. It will remain mostly
cloudy on Wednesday with highs only into the 20s.


Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 418 PM EST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

High sun angle of early March along with persistent low level warm air advection
have vastly improved surfaces across entire County Warning Area. Any lingering
sheltered areas in far northestern County Warning Area should continue to melt next
couple hours. Katafrontal precipitation shield on marked downtrend later
this evening with frontal passage with only light precipitation amounts bynd 00
UTC. Slight concern with shallow surface based undercut of colder air
in extreme far southeastern County Warning Area coincident west/frontal passage to present light freezing rain
thermal profile briefly near changeover to frozen in 06-09 UTC
timeframe. Removed residual les as thermal differentials quite
lackluster into Wednesday. Still deepening cold air advection to provide little temperature
recovery for Wednesday.


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 418 PM EST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Another surge of Arctic air settles into the region Thursday and
Friday. This will drive temperatures some 15 to 20 degrees below
normal through Friday. Open waters on Lake Michigan and this will
support lake effect snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday...
however accumulation will be generally light.

Cold air retreats beginning Friday through the weekend. With
temperatures recovering to near to slightly above normal by
Sunday/Monday. Given the increased sun angle this is not out of
the question. Will need to be watched and would not be surprised
if the maximum temperatures are too optimistic in the latter period.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 117 am EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

MVFR ceilings expected through much of the period in Post frontal cold
advection regime. Secondary frontal boundary expected to drop down
into the area on Wednesday. Strengthening cold advection and
deepening mixed layer will allow for some increase in
west/northwest wind gusts into the 15 to 20 knot range Wednesday
afternoon. Terminals should remain dry with any lingering light
precipitation expected to remain southeast of the terminals.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Murphy
long term...Lewis

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