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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OTHERWISE..CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH AROUND 80...EXCEPT IN THE MID 70S CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BELOW. AS
A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS 
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A FEW ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A BKN-OVC DECK OF HIGH 
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM AND HOST OF OTHER 
MODELS ARE OVERDOING POPS/QPF THUS FAR...SO HAVE STUCK TO USING THE 
HRRR AS IT HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS 
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IT SEEMS PCP HAS FAILED TO 
MAKE IT FAR NORTHWARD THUS FAR...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THAT WAY THIS 
EVENING. 

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SKIES CLEARING...AND 
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE 
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WAS HESITANT TO ADD 
ANYTHING INTO FCST. IF ANYTHING...THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A BR 
SITUATION WITH VIS 3-5 MILES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS A 
BIT MORE MOISTURE. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER 
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT 
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE FORCING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM 
TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE 
LIMITED AND WITH LOCAL AREA LIKELY SPLIT BY FORCING ONCE AGAIN WILL 
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITY MAY 
EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE 
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT NOT OF LARGE ENOUGH 
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY TRY TO GET 
INGESTED BACK INTO NORTHERN STREAM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO 
MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY 
TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS LIKELY POPS FOR 
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE 
GIVEN EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE 
RATES...AND LOCAL AREA REMAINING ON EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 
STRONGER FORCING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY EVENING IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF. 
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS AN 
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID 
LEVEL TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. MAINTAINED IDEA OF 
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE AGGRESSIVE 
NORTHWARD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF BR OVERNIGHT AT
KFWA SO LEFT THAT IN THIS ISSUANCE WITH A TEMPO GROUP. VIS
SATELLITE DOES SHOW LARGE AMOUNT OF SMOKE/HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILD
FIRES APPROACHING OUR AREA. WHILE LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE A HAZE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW KEEPING SFC VIS VFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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