Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service northern Indiana
309 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
issued at 1156 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
High pressure over the region will result in sunny skies today
and clear skies tonight with just slightly below normal
temperatures. Tomorrow will see more sunny skies under the high
pressure with around normal temperatures.
&&
Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 306 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Stagnant...but perfect weather for middle June will be on tap for the
region. Few pockets/bands of cumulus were attempting to develop but won't
amount to much and are expected to quickly dissipate this evening.
Warm front was located just to the southwest of the region with
temperatures into the 80s and dewpoints into the 60s. Warmer conditions will
advect in over the next 24 to 36 hours...with the higher heat and
humidity holding off till outside the short term period.
Previous forecast had a good handle overall on expected conditions
through Thursday. Only changes made were to lower cloud cover
somewhat in afternoon and resultant increase in temperatures (only a few
degrees) as guidance numbers have crept upwards slightly.
&&
Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 306 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
A deep closed Pacific northwest low will lift northeast through the
northern rockies and into south-central Canada Friday into the
weekend. This will allow Summer-like heat and humidity to be on the
increase locally as a middle/upper level ridge builds northeast into
the southern Great Lakes region. The best chances for any convection
will be with the initial low level Theta-E surge and warm front
later Friday night into Saturday...although weak flow and nose of
low level jet focusing well northwest of the forecast area warrants only low chance probability of precipitation. Capped
warm sector with 850 mb temperatures increasing to near 20c should support
mainly dry/hot weather by Sunday.
Middle level westerlies will emerge across the upper Midwest and Great
Lakes Monday through Wednesday as the upper ridge flattens...with
the primary synoptic front prognosticated to remain just north of the iwx
County Warning Area...favoring mainly dry/hot weather. However...low amplitude shortwaves
embedded in this flow will likely force several convective complexes
in vicinity of the Theta-E/instability gradient on southern fringe of
westerlies...which makes the pop/temperature forecast beyond Monday a low
confidence one given mesoscale uncertainties that could force a
composite outflow/mesoscale convective system farther south into the area. For now will hold
close to the previous forecast (low probability of precipitation and high end of temperature guidance).
&&
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 130 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
VFR conditions to prevail with pockets of scattered cumulus development to
rapidly disspate after sunset. Winds will remain light and
variable through the period.
&&
Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
Michigan...none.
Ohio...none.
Lm...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...lothamer
short term...Fisher
long term...steinwedel
aviation...Fisher
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