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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
1238 PM EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

issued at 421 am EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

High pressure and northerly winds will bring cooler and drier
conditions to the area through Friday. Highs today will primarily
be in the middle 70s...except near 70 close to Lake Michigan. Lows
tonight will dip back into the lower to middle 50s.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 421 am EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

None sensible weather concerns through short term period as western Great
Lakes centroid slides southeast toward the Ohio Valley by 12 UTC
Friday. Slight downward temper of maximum temperatures today given dominance of
thermal trough core across County Warning Area along with inland push of modified lake
environment. Given weak pressure gradient flow overnight have double
downed on colder near Lakeshore drainage wind in Berrien/kbeh
vicinity...otherwise similar cool temperatures. Some minor concern that
upstream convective debris could impede otherwise idyllic/strong
surface based am inversion. Lack of sig upstream thunderstorms and rain coverage and
large 4-2h dewpoint depressions suggests the concern falls well
outside realm of most probable outcomes.


Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 421 am EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Strong shortwave will edge east across southern Canada allowing for
flattening of ridge across the Central Plains. Models continue to
signal at some convective development well ahead of this wave with a
weaker feature in the plains that drops southeast towards the Great Lakes.
Share concerns of previous shift with exactly how much...if any
precipitation may make it into the area Friday night into Saturday. Signals
would point to at least a chance and while probability of precipitation were lowered to slight
chance category in previous forecast...will hold with this to avoid flip
flopping as exact evolution still uncertain.

Better chances arrive as main shortwave drops into the western Great
Lakes starting Sunday. Frontal boundary will reside in the general
area with some potential for one or more convective complexes to
develop and track east...possibly reaching the area Sat night (ref new
swody3). While scenario is plausible...enough uncertainty to just
keep chance probability of precipitation going Sat afternoon into Sat night with further extension
Sunday as main short wave arrives.

Seasonable temperatures will persist until passage of the main wave with
return to below normal levels in the lower 70s.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1238 PM EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period as sprawling high
pressure now centered over the western Great Lakes builds
southeast over the local area. Northerly winds of 5-12 kts this
afternoon will become calm/light tonight.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Murphy
long term...Fisher

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