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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
349 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

issued at 344 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

High pressure will dominate the region through Wednesday night
with pleasant conditions and low humidity. The next chance for
rain will arrive Thursday and Thursday night as a system passes
through the Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will range from 55 to 60
with highs on Wednesday reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.


Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 344 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Upper-level trough that has settled into the area over the last
several days will continue to exit the region this afternoon and
evening. In it's wake weak 850hpa ridge builds into the region.
Moisture gradient remains south of the area suppressing clouds
and leading to mostly clear skies tonight. Temperatures in the low-middle
50s across County Warning Area overnight. For Wednesday high pressure sags into
the region as 500hpa vorticity maximum begins to interact with the low
currently centered over Oklahoma. As of now cloud cover looks to
be building slightly over the region on Wednesday impacting the
southern County Warning Area. Temperatures on Wednesday should stay below normal with
highs in the the upper 70s to lower 80s.


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 344 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015
a short wave trough was toping the upper level ridge and moving
into the High Plains this afternoon. This system will move east
and approach this Ohio River valley Wednesday night into Thursday.
The GFS...ECMWF...NAM and the Canadian Gem have trended this
system south with recent runs. Given this trend and support from
the cips analogs...and through coordination with National Weather Service offices...
have trended rain chances down Wednesday night and Thursday.

Otherwise...some energy will continue to top the upper level ridge
through the rest of the period. Retained some low shower chances
late this week in this regard. A stronger upper level trough should
move across the area early next week...with a reasonable chance for
showers and storms. Otherwise... temperature should be a little
below normal with this pattern with highs generally around 80 and
lows 60 to 65.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1257 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

VFR conditions to persist through the period with scattered high based
cumulus around through late afternoon followed by high clouds the
remainder of the period. Few wind gusts over 15 kts are possible
but will quickly become light near/after sunset.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...hook/Fisher
long term...skipper

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