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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
616 PM EDT Friday Mar 27 2015

issued at 553 PM EDT Friday Mar 27 2015

High pressure will be moving into the region tonight and hanging
around through tomorrow. Skies tonight will be clear and tomorrow
they will be sunny. Low temperatures tonight will range from near
10 above zero in southern Michigan to around 20 along the Ohio
River. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the middle to upper 30s.


Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 321 PM EDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Quiet short term period as dry cp airmass settles across the
southern Great Lakes. Surface ridge will slowly stretch eastward through
the region tonight and Saturday. Scattered flurries across the area
this afternoon will diminish toward evening as dry advection/backing
low level flow ends lake response. Gusty winds will subside as bl
decouples overnight. Light winds and clearing skies will allow for
appreciable longwave flux and plummeting temperatures. Went close to
mav/met guidance for lows...a few degrees colder than previous
forecast. Could be isolated spots that dip down into the single digits
overnight...however kept most areas at 10f or higher as ridge axis
will still be west of the area through the overnight and light winds
will preclude maximum radiational cooling. Temperatures will still
be well below normal on Saturday...with highs in the middle 30s...and
ample sunshine is expected west/ high pressure center over the area.


Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 321 PM EDT Friday Mar 27 2015

The train will be leaving the Tunnel of cold air and on its way to
more seasonable temperatures through the period. But before we get
there...still a few issues to deal with.

Series of troughs will continue into Monday with the last of the
"colder" ones poised to move across the Great Lakes Sunday/Sun night.
Trailing front will sweep across the area but not be overly rich in
moisture. Still enough potential with it...especially northwest
warrant likely probability of precipitation Sunday. With temperatures starting well below
freezing...may be a period of snow or snow/rain in the morning
mainly NE and also towards the end of the event. Neither setup
should yield much in the way of accums to worry about.

For the remainder of the period...the upper level will being to
relax and eventually show signs of a somewhat longer stretch of
increasing heights and near/above normal temperatures as longwave
trough begins to dig across the plains. A warm front will setup middle
week and bring a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms...but
have kept things reserved at this point with questions as to how
fast the return flow can setup. Mex guidance coming in with solid
60s Tuesday through Thursday and while trends would suggest we will
finally head back that way...frontal position and any precipitation
potential cold cause rather large north to south temperature gradients
initially with men guidance from last night showing this nicely as a
15 to 20 degree spread in high temperature potential exists. Have stayed in
middle-upper 50s for now with hope later forecasts can warm things up


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 139 PM EDT Friday Mar 27 2015

VFR conds expected through the taf period as surface ridge axis pushes
across the region. Gusty north winds early on in the period will
subside this evening as atmosphere decouples...with light winds
and clear skies expected overnight.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Saturday for lmz043-046.



long term...Fisher

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