Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
715 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

issued at 715 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Strong high pressure will maintain dry and mainly clear conditions
through the weekend. Temperatures tonight will fall back into the
middle 30s east to the middle 40s west. Sunday will turn much warmer
with highs in the lower to middle 70s as high pressure shifts east
and southerly winds increase.


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 432 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Temperature forecast only real concern with none sensible weather in
near/short term timeframe given deep dry/subsident regime
entrenched across Great Lakes region. Easterly flow within mixed
layer per observation/vwp to reinforce thermal troffing across eastern
forecast area for more severe longwave nocturnal losses overnight.
Far western County Warning Area more likely to remain at least quasi-mixed on
southeast fringe of retreating ridge...and while overall changes
minute...have strengthened east/west min temperature gradient. For Sunday...near
full insolation and ridge centroid off New England coastline
anticipate deeper mixing to about 850mb/5kft above ground level. Dry adiabatic
lapse rate mixing suggests temperatures about a category higher than
current forecast. Also save for far northern Berrien County...
background southerly flow should hold lake breeze circulation to
just offshore. Uniformity of near 9.5c 800 mb temperatures should assure
maximum temperatures in middle/upper 70s as seen today across western MO.


Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 432 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

The ongoing forecast/grids appear to be reasonably on track this
upcoming week given the arrival of two short wave troughs and
associated weather. Favored the GFS this package with good run to
run consistency...although the GFS was trending most temperatures down
Tuesday into Wednesday night. Followed this cooler trend...and the
ongoing trend to lower lows Tuesday night. These low temperatures are
supported by the GFS/mex...with even some upper 20s showing up over
far SW lower mich. Concern persists for frost and freezing
temperatures...especially over northern areas Tuesday night given large
diurnal swings expected with very dry conditions in the lower
layers. As for thunder...kept small chances for thunder late Monday
and early Monday night. Although moisture remains quite from the left exit region of the upper jet
combined with some marginally unstable emls/elevated mixed layers
may be enough generate a few storms. A second short wave should
arrive Thursday night...but once again...moisture will be limited.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 715 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR conds will persist through the period as broad ridging remains over
the eastern lakes.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...

short term...Murphy
long term...skipper

Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx (all lower case)

Follow US on facebook...twitter...and youtube at: