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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
724 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

issued at 709 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

Rain and areas of drizzle will gradually taper from northwest to
southeast tonight into Saturday morning as a cold front continues
to slowly work southward. Clouds will begin to decrease from
north to south Saturday afternoon across far northern
Indiana...Southern Lower Michigan...and extreme Northwest Ohio.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to upper
30s...and high temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper
30s to lower 40s.


issued at 709 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

Surface frontal boundary has finally cleared far southeast portions of
the area...although depth of this front will remain quite shallow
across the local area through the night due to an overall low
amplitude middle level flow pattern. While synoptic forcing will
remain weak through the night...some low level frontogenesis
forcing associated with the low level front may allow additional
bands of light rain to form across northwest portions of the
area...while more solid area of light rain persists across
southeast portions of the area overnight. Did slightly lower probability of precipitation
across the northwest...where nature of precipitation may be more drizzly
in nature. Otherwise...trends from previous forecast were largely
left intact. Updated forecast to be sent shortly.


Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 352 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

The cold front was between feet Wayne and Lima this afternoon.
The front will continue to move southeast across the area as much
colder air spreads south. Isentropic surfaces in the low levels
indicate downglide through early tonight...although the front may
temporarily stall overnight with areas of drizzle or very light rain
possible north of the front. For this package...kept just rain in
the forecast to avoid confusion with rain and drizzle. Much drier
air will spread into the area Saturday...with clearing skies from
the north. Raised lows a little tonight. There is an outside chance
for a brief rain/snow mix before the precipitation ends. Given the
mild temperatures the past few not expect any travel
issues or icy conditions tonight.


Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 352 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015
cold front in associated/west northern extension of splitting upper trough
will settle southward along the Ohio River short term and through the Tennessee Valley
on sun. In light of near term southward push and across the board trend west/12z
guidance have cut probability of precipitation through Monday am. In addn...central rockies
closed low a bit slwr to open and eject out across the Central Plains
early next week and delayed ramp to likely probability of precipitation to Monday night-early
Tuesday timed west/northward surging frontal zone.

Vigorous/deep cyclonic follow follows through the lakes Tuesday night/Wednesday
west/a few spits of rain or snow probable within moist ll cold air advection
Wing.Otrws dry and seasonably cool weather follows in wake of this system
lt period.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 709 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

Lower end MVFR or IFR conditions to persist across the area this
evening...with the greatest duration of these conditions expected
at kfwa where more pronounced low level drying will be delayed.
Frontal inversion should act to keep some low level moisture
locked in place and have carried MVFR conditions through much of
this forecast valid period...although should see improvement to
above fuel alternate criteria at kfwa some time Saturday morning
or toward midday. However...confidence is somewhat low at this
time regarding timing of this improvement. Should see a transition
to VFR conditions Saturday afternoon as drier low level air
advects into the local area. North winds around 10 knots to begin
the period will veer northeast tonight and continue into Saturday
as low level ridge axis overspreads the Great Lakes region.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Saturday for lmz043-046.



short term...skipper
long term...T

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