Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
423 am EDT sun may 24 2015

issued at 420 am EDT sun may 24 2015

High pressure will keep skies partly cloudy and conditions dry
and warm today. Showers and storms are possible Monday morning and
then later this week as humidity increases and as upper level
disturbances track across the area. Highs through Friday are
expected to be mainly in the low 80s and lows around 65.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 417 am EDT sun may 24 2015

Rather sig height rises aloft expected this period downstream of ejecting
intense southern stream SW. Given 00z consensus placement of middle level
ridge axis and westward trending ejecting southern stream trough...admitted
lack of forcing locally and poor moisture advection suggests probability of precipitation can be
scrapped for the most part again through the period in fvr of a
persistence dry forecast. However will retain minimized pop mention far
northwest for lt this afternoon/Erly evening in reference to ll Theta-E burst that
clips northwest in/Southern Lake Michigan along nose of low level jet.

Otrws ll thermal ridge builds further...on the order of 2c at 850 mb
which even west/an increase in middle level clouds today shld equate to high
temperatures similar to yesterday...W/low 80s expected in most locations.


Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 417 am EDT sun may 24 2015

The upper level low will lift northeast early this week and will
eject an upper level trough toward the upper Great Lakes region early
Monday. Have limited the shower/storm chances to Monday morning
given the latest expected timing of this system. Have also added
more detail later this week as subsequent upper troughs move toward
the forecast area. Moisture will be increasing this week as upper
level ridging extends north of the Ohio River. However...middle level
lapse rates are expected to remain relative stable and limit
convection. Have removed shower/storm chances Wednesday night and
Thursday. For late this week...a cold front should be moving south
out of Canada and become stationary over or near the forecast area.
The European model (ecmwf) favors more northern solution whereas the GFS is farther
south. Given the strength of the front and the surface pressures
north of the front...favor at least a blend of the ec and
GFS...which would place the front over the forecast area by
Saturday. At this time...a wave is expected to track along the front
next weekend...and be accompanied by another round of precipitation.
For now...kept a chance for showers and storms Saturday with this
system in the area. As for temperatures...the forecast area will be
in the warm sector except for possibly very late in this period.
Kept high mainly in the low 80s with lows near 65 most areas.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night) issued at 420
am EDT sun may 24 2015

VFR conds will continue this period as ridging surface and aloft holds firm.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...T
long term...skipper

Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx (all lower case)

Follow US on facebook...twitter...and youtube at:

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations