Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
327 am EDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015

issued at 327 am EDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015

High pressure will continue to provide the region with comfortable
temperatures and dry conditions today into this evening. Highs
today are forecast to top out near 80 degrees...dropping back into
the upper 50s and low 60s later tonight. A weak low pressure
system tracking through the Ohio Valley may spread some light rain
into areas mainly south of Highway 30 later tonight into Thursday.
Dry otherwise on Thursday with highs ranging between the middle 70s
and low 80s.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 327 am EDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015

Fair/comfortable weather will persist today into this evening north of
an Ohio-Missouri Valley baroclinic zone as height rises aloft
help maintain low level ridging locally. And little change
expected tonight for most locations with models in decent
agreement in shunting an undercutting surface frontal wave south
through the Ohio Valley. The one exception could be across our far
southern zones later tonight where low shower chances were
maintained given close proximity to far northern fringe of
circulation/deeper moisture.


Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 327 am EDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015

Dry stable airmass associated with surface high over the Great Lakes should
continue to result in generally fair weather across our area Thursday-Friday as it
moves slowly east. Shortwave over Nebraska is expected to move east-southeast across
the lower Ohio Valley Thursday with some potential for northern edge of rain
shield associated with this system impacting the southern portion of our
County Warning Area. Deep moisture and instability over the plains should progress
east into Illinois Friday ahead of a weak but possibly convectively enhanced
shortwave. Although airmass should remain rather dry/stable as this
weakening system crosses our area Friday night... a few diminishing
showers could make it into the County Warning Area so maintained low chance probability of precipitation mainly
northwest. No significant change in temperatures expected in this timeframe with
highs/lows generally remaining slightly below normal.

For the extended forecast... surface ridge should continue to hold across the
Great Lakes through the weekend. Another weak shortwave moving over the top of
the Southern Plains upper level ridge expected to approach the area Sunday
with diminishing convection possibly reaching southwestern portion of the County Warning Area.
Next southern stream shortwave a little more impressive with medium range
models suggesting it will phase with an upper low moving across Ontario
bringing what looks to be the best chance of showers/thunderstorms to our area
for this forecast Monday/Monday night... followed by dry/cooler weather Tuesday
as high pressure moves east into the upper Great Lakes. Temperatures should be
near normal over the weekend with highs in the l80s and lows in the
l-m60s...cooling to a bit below normal by Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1225 am EDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015

Surface ridge will continue to provide VFR/dry conditions and light
winds through the taf cycle.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...steinwedel
long term...jt

Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/iwx (all lower case)

Follow US on facebook...twitter...and youtube at:

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations