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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
144 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

issued at 135 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

High pressure will slowly nudge into the region and this will help
break up the clouds and eventually clear skies by this evening.
Breezy north winds of 10 to 20 miles per hour will gradually diminish this
evening as well. Under mostly clear skies with light winds...low
temperatures will drop into the lower and middle 40s overnight.
Saturday will be a pleasant fall day with mostly sunny skies and
high temperatures in the middle 60s.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 334 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

A short wave was moving southeast across the region...associated
with a cold front. The front was just entering Northwest Indiana
and far southwest lower Michigan early this morning and will move
across the forecast area early today. A large area of low clouds
will spread over the region behind the front this morning and
early this afternoon. The clouds and the cooler air will greatly
limit any daytime temperature rises. Subsidence behind the short
wave trough will help skies to begin clearing this afternoon. Winds
should become light tonight under a clear to partly cloudy sky.


Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 334 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Parade of progressive northern stream SW/S expected to continue
amplifying eastward through central/eastern Canada this period. Thus generally
yielding dry and dusty weather along west/increasing diurnal spreads especially
within next vigorous ll thermal ridge sun-Mon.

Strong rebound out of short term ll thermal trough expected as Erly as Sat
afternoon timed west/southeastward progression of surface ridge in vicinity of the Ohio River and ahead
of Lee side troughing extending southward from vigorous surface cyclone spinning
up across western Canada. Hard to best blended GFS/ec based MOS guidance
and bumped temperatures through Monday in accordance west/unseasonably strong
thermal ridge folding eastward out of the plains.

Otrws ll anticyclone stuck across the Gomex in combination
west/vegetative canopy associated evapotranspiration shutting down offers
dismal chances for sufficient moisture rtn inadv of trailing cold front Monday
afternoon. Thus strongly prefer to limit overall rain chance Monday afternoon-Erly evening.

Thereafter pattn looks to become rather amplified through eastern Canada
resulting in cooling temperatures for a time lt period before follow turns more zonal
again lt next weekend.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 135 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

MVFR ceilings were beginning to mix and rise to VFR levels per latest
surface observation and satellite trends. Lake Shadow off of Lake Michigan and
subsidence leading to a hole of clear skies north of ksbn. Should
see inland portions of this clearing fill back in with cumulus field
this afternoon but expect VFR ceilings. Kfwa should be mainly VFR with
ceilings around 4kft but a few MVFR ceilings next hour or two possible.
Clearing follows for tonight. Cross over temperatures will be reached
overnight with clear skies and light winds but large scale drying
also occurring. Looks like patchy ground fog setup but for now
will leave out of terminals given expected limited nature.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Saturday for lmz043-046.



short term...skipper
long term...T

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