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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
340 am EDT Monday Aug 3 2015

issued at 340 am EDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Drier and cooler conditions are expected today as high pressure
builds into the Great Lakes. Highs this afternoon will top out in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 340 am EDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Tranquil weather expected this period. Potent SW trough rounding
southern extension of upper low over Hudson Bay quickly on the way out
early this am. Composite outflw/cold front just clearing southern County Warning Area at this time. Thus
west/loss of both frontal forcing and ensuing weak subsidence behind
departing upper wave...highly doubt potential for renewed conv development
along secondary cold front dropping out of the upper Midwest this afternoon...especially
in light of sig overturning that has occurred earlier this evening.
Thus will drop all mention of probability of precipitation/weather through the remainder of this
period. Otrws temperatures much cooler today compared to ydas hot temperatures as ll cold air advection
wraps southward especially this afternoon in tandem west/passage of secondary cold front.


Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 340 am EDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Quiet/seasonably cool weather will persist into Tuesday and early
Wednesday as low level ridge builds in on subsident southwest
periphery of negative height anomaly drifting east into Quebec.
Large scale west-northwest flow regime aloft deamplifies thereafter with
primary baroclinic zone suppressed south into the Ohio/middle MS
valleys. The result will be temperatures averaging cooler than
normal on cool side of boundary...with the best opportunity for
rain/embedded thunder Wednesday night into Thursday on the northern
fringe of a surface frontal wave modeled to track east through the Ohio
Valley. Guidance continues to differ with little run-to-run
consistency regarding timing/track. As a result continued to hold
probability of precipitation in the low-middle chance range...highest south.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 147 am EDT Monday Aug 3 2015

VFR conds will continue this period outside transient MVFR restriction in
thunderstorms and rain in vicinity of kfwa through 07z or so. Otrws subsidence follows especially this
afternoon in wake of upper trough passage west/skies clearing this afternoon timed
west/arrival of deeper negative Theta-E push as ridge builds into the western Ohio


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...T
long term...steinwedel

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