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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
1120 am EDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

issued at 1100 am EDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Low pressure centered in Ontario Canada will pass another
shortwave through the region today. This will bring a small chance
for some rain this afternoon. Otherwise skies will be partly
cloudy with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s in
southern Michigan to the lower 80s along the Ohio River. Tonight
will be partly cloudy with low temperatures around 60 degrees.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 405 am EDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Middle level height rises with stronger/more perturbed northwest flow
(and core of cold air aloft) shifting east-northeast of the local area will
result in lower coverage/probability of diurnally driven
showers/thunder and slightly warmer temperatures when compared to the
previous two days. Subtle low level moisture advection as winds
increase/back westerly under lingering trough axis should still
support 500-800 j/kg of thin cape by this afternoon. This and lacking
convective inhibition may be enough to help generate isolated
showers/thunder along a weak surface convergence axis that will likely
materialize downwind of Lake Michigan. Regardless...another mainly
dry/pleasant day for late July standards.

Loss of heating and lacking support aloft will likely result in a
dry evening. The middle level flow will back more southwesterly by
later tonight in advance of shortwave energy that will approach on
the backside of the primary eastern Continental U.S. Upper trough. Modest
moisture transport with this feature could aid in bringing a few
showers to northwest in/SW lower Michigan.


Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 405 am EDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

An upper low will be near James Bay at the start of the period and
should be lifting northeast. This will allow the upper air pattern
to become more high zonal...with short wave energy moving southeast
toward the western Great Lakes region. Kept a chance for mainly
afternoon thunderstorms Friday and Saturday given limited low level
convergence...but with sufficient daytime heating to allow afternoon
cape values to arise to between 500 and 1000 j/kg. Moisture flux
into the area will remain very limited until near the end of the
forecast period. Given the very low correlation coefficient of the
500 mb analogs...and limited run to run consistency...kept the
ongoing chance for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. As for
temperatures...850 mb temperatures should gradually recover...and
allow highs to top 80 degrees. Favored the cooler GFS mex mean
ensemble numbers over the warmer operational run forecast


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 613 am EDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Light winds/mostly clear skies has allowed temperatures to drop below
xover values early this morning with IFR-MVFR visible restrictions
common across northern Indiana. Expect this to burn off shortly
after taf issuance leaving VFR conditions for the rest of the
period. Weak diurnal destabilization may once again allow a few
afternoon showers to develop...although coverage/probability appears
lower than previous days given building middle level heights/warming
aloft with low level trough focused well north across the northern
Great Lakes. Opted to hold on to a dry forecast at FWA/sbn as a


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...steinwedel
long term...skipper

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