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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
751 PM EDT sun Sep 21 2014

issued at 740 PM EDT sun Sep 21 2014

Cooler conditions are expected tonight across the region as a cold
front pushes southeast of the area. Aside from some cloud cover
overnight...dry conditions and mostly clear skies are expected
after tonight through the entire work week. Temperatures will
gradually warm from highs in the low 60s Monday to highs in the
middle to upper 70s by Friday.


Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 352 PM EDT sun Sep 21 2014

The forecast challenges include ending of showers early tonight and
amount of clearing overnight. A short wave trough was moving across
lower Michigan into northern Indiana this afternoon. A secondary
cold front was associated with this system from northeast Illinois
into southwest lower Michigan. Very cold air aloft in addition to
the upper trough and cold front were sufficient to produce showers.
Kept a mention of isolated thunder late this afternoon over
northeast given the instability with cold air aloft. There were a
few lightning strikes over southeast lower Michigan north of
Interstate 94 during the middle of this afternoon. Skies should
begin to clear behind the front early tonight. Some concern for lake
clouds forming under the base of a developing inversion overnight.
Added some lake clouds tonight given a favorable fetch and
increasing Delta T values. Otherwise...temperatures will be chilly
with lows away from any lingering areas of lake clouds well down
into the 40s. Kept temperatures much below normal Monday with highs
around 60s most areas.


Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 352 PM EDT sun Sep 21 2014

Very little to discuss with respect to sensible weather in the long
term period. High pressure will be entrenched over the region
through the period. Temperatures will slowly moderate...trending
from below normal to above normal by end of period. It should remain
dry through the end of the week and likely dry through next weekend.
Models do begin to show an increase in moisture next weekend in
response to some tropical moisture working toward the area with weak
upper low undercutting ridge. No support for adding probability of precipitation with lack
of any strong upper air support or surface trigger.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 740 PM EDT sun Sep 21 2014

MVFR ceilings ongoing at terminals west/ onset of taf upper
trough digs southeast through the Great Lakes. Clouds should begin
to scatter out after 03z as drier air advects into the region.
Some concern for MVFR conds at terminals toward daybreak
Monday...however confidence to low at this time for mention in taf...aside
from a tempo 4sm br at kfwa. High pressure builds into the area
west/ fair conditions through the second half of the taf period.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for lmz043-046.

Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for lmz043-046.


short term...skipper
long term...Lashley

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