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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana
555 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

issued at 533 am EDT Sat Oct 9 2015

Pleasant weather can be expected today with light winds...mostly
sunny skies and highs near 65. The weather will be even warmer
Sunday with mild southwest winds helping temperatures to climb
into the lower to middle 70s. Warm weather will continue into Monday
with highs in the middle to upper 70s. Little if any rain is expected
through Monday.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 342 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Dry air had spread over the area and had allowed temperatures to
drop to around 40. With these conditions...some patchy ground fog
had developed overnight over mainly Northwest Indiana. However...
high clouds were also spreading into the area and may be able to
help prevent fog from becoming more widespread. Conditional
climatology strongly favors only very local fog
kept out mention of fog given expected very brief and isolated
conditions. Any fog will mix out quickly this morning with mostly
sunny skies. Return flow will begin late this afternoon and
increase tonight. Much better low level mixing this upcoming night
should prevent fog from forming.


Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 342 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Maturing deep cyclone across southern Canada at the start of
the period will carry eastward into James Bay by lt Monday. Southwestward trailing sharp
cold front zone generally trending west/a slwr eastward progression yet still
devoid of any sig rtn moisture. Thus given eastward fold of notable thermal
ridge ahead of this ftr and lagged arrival of thermal trough will
again Buck derived grid blends in Stark fvr of GFS/ec MOS temperature
blends. Also notched Monday afternoon probability of precipitation lower again far eastern zones given
broadening model bases consensus of nothing developing.

Otrws train of progressive northern stream disturbances will carve a
steadily deeper mean trough centered over eastern Canada...extending southward
into the East Coast. Thus as this negative height anomaly builds expect
gradually downward trending temperatures through lt period before breaking
substantially warmer again toward lt next weekend or Erly next week
pending timing of changes related to pattn aloft across noam evolve.

Ll anticyclone persisting across the Gomex and northward detachment of
perturbed northern stream follow places local County Warning Area within a notably quite and
exceedingly dry spot and at this time will not entertain any notion of probability of precipitation
regardless of solution throughout the period.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 532 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Some patchy ground fog is still possible at the South Bend
terminal at the start of the taf period...but for now left the fog
out for now given the low likelihood of the fog. Otherwise... VFR
conditions will prevail through the taf period. Much better low
level mixing this upcoming night should prevent fog from forming.


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...skipper
long term...T

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