Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
422 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Update...
the aviation section has been updated below.
&&
Synopsis...
issued at 237 am EDT sun may 26 2013
A warm front over Illinois and and western Kentucky will lift
north today across Indiana. A quick moving upper level weather
disturbance will push into the area late this afternoon and this
evening...bringing chances for rain showers. Yet another upper
level disturbance will push through the area on Monday...bringing
more chances for light rain showers.
As the warm front pushes northward on Tuesday...summerlike weather
will return to central Indiana as warmer air arrives on southerly
winds. High temperatures will soar back into the 80s for much of
the next work week.
&&
Near term /today/...
Issued at 237 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a short wave over SW
Indiana diving to the southeast. Radar shows a few lingering light
rain showers associated with this feature. Surface analysis early
this morning shows a warm front stretching from central Missouri
to southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Subsidence was building
into central Indiana as the wind fields show lower level
divergence building across the northwest parts of the forecast area in
the wake of the short wave.
Main forecast challenege today will be probability of precipitation. Our main precipitation
trigger...the short wave passing aloft will have exited the area
after 12z. GFS and NAM both suggest the next wave riding over the
upper ridge over the plains should arrive in the area late this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Furthermore...the poorly
organized warm front to the SW barely moves to the northeast
today. Meanwhile forecast soundings only indicate deep saturation
by 00z Monday. Meanwhile the NAM soundings never become saturated.
Lower level q vectors fail to show much in the way of convergence
this afternoon and 305k GFS isentropic surface shows some upglide
toward 00z.
Thus with little forcing appearing available until late this
afternoon...will hold off on probability of precipitation until about 21z. As for temperatures
will stick close to the cooler mavmos highs as lingering cloud
cover is expected through the day.
&&
Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 237 am EDT sun may 26 2013
The GFS indicate that the upper ridge to our west will drift into
the Ohio Valley on Monday into Tuesday. As the ridge passes east...it
does appear to flatten out and again several short waves push
across Indiana. The first wave pushes across the area
tonight...and a second wave arrives on Monday as the warm front
pushes north through the state. Time heights continue to indicate
best lower level saturation tonight through middle day Monday with
this these features and will focus highest probability of precipitation during those
hours. As for temperatures will trend lows tonight warmer than mavmos and
Monday/S highs cooler.
As the warm front drifts to lower Michigan on Monday night and
Tuesday...lower level q vector convergence implies best forcing
will be north of central Indiana as a much warmer air mass arrives
in central Indiana on southerly winds. The GFS hints a a pretty
strong short wave pushing through northern Indiana and lower
Michigan on Tuesday afternoon...with warm and humid air in place
across the forecast area...cannot rule out some scattered
thunderstorms and rain...especially across the laf...okk...mie areas closer to the
best forcing aloft. Thus will continue to keep some chance type probability of precipitation
on Tuesday afternoon. Given the warmer and more humid air mass in
place will trend highs and lows warmer than mavmos.
&&
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 237 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Fairly quiet conditions expected during this period as mean upper
ridge gradually drifts east across the area...reaching the East
Coast by next weekend. The upper ridge will help to keep things
capped off for the most part...and the ensembles agree...suggesting
little threat for precipitation through Friday. Will continue with a
dry forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
By next Saturday...the upper ridge may get pushed far enough east to
bring in a precipitation threat from a system that may be moving
through the northern plains at that time. Will bring in probability of precipitation for
next Saturday.
&&
Aviation /discussion for the 260900z kind taf update/...
Issued at 422 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Light rain has moved off to the south of the kind terminal. Not
seeing any trigger for additional organized precipitation in the
near future...so will take out the vicinity shower group from the
forecast. Will also make some adjustments to the wind direction
based on current observations.
Previous discussion follows.
Persistent widespread rain showers are still affecting taf
sites...and will continue to do so for duration of taf period.
Conditions will generally stay in the VFR category...except during
heavier rain showers when reduced visibilities and ceilings could
result in periods of MVFR conditions. Northeasterly winds will
slowly veer to the east and then southeast by daybreak today.
Sustained speeds will be between 5 to 10 kts.
&&
Ind watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...puma
near term...puma
short term...puma
long term....jas
aviation...tdud/jas
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