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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
425 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014


The aviation section has been updated below.


issued at 250 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

With the exception of a weak upper wave on Thursday
night which may bring a few showers...surface high pressure will
be the dominant force across the area through the week and into
the weekend. Thus...dry and relatively cool conditions will
predominate across central Indiana. A brief warmup can be expected
over the weekend into early next week.


Near term /tonight/...
issued at 250 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

As high pressure builds into the area tonight expect skies to
clear as stratocumulus erodes. This leaves temperatures and frost
potential as the only significant issues for the overnight forecast.

Upstream numbers suggest consensus mins are the
middle to upper 30s. Have chosen to exclude a patchy frost mention as
winds appear likely to stay up near 4-5kt...which will work
against frost formation. Additionally...min temperatures are borderline
at best for frost.


Short term /Wednesday through Friday/...
issued at 250 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

The only significant feature in the short term is a weak upper
wave which will slide through the area Thursday night. Will have
to carry some slight chance to low chance probability of precipitation with this feature
for the possibility of showers. of short term
will be dry and dominated by surface high pressure.

Frost is a bit more of a concern tomorrow night. Temperatures
appear more likely to bottom out Wednesday night as the surface
ridge is directly overhead. Expect light winds and temperatures in the
middle 30s. As such...will carry patchy frost mention where
necessary. May need a headline decision tonight or tomorrow
depending on how guidance evolves.

Temperatures across the remainder of the period should remain
below normal but gradually warm as thicknesses rise across the
area. Consensus numbers appear to have this well in hand and were
acceptable aside from a few tweaks.


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
issued at 211 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

An upper ridge will remain over the eastern half of the country
through the first half of the long term producing dry weather over
central Indiana. Temperatures will warm to slightly above normal
temperatures over the weekend. Next possible system will approach
the area next Monday night/ this juncture ensemble
moisture fields look very dry so left in only slight chances for
showers. Otherwise no changes made to the superblend initialization.


Aviation /discussion for 212100z ind taf update/...
issued at 425 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Only minor tweak to winds.

Previous discussion follows...

Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

VFR stratocu currently encompassing the forecast area as another
wave aloft tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. Still seeing a
few light showers over northern Indiana...and it/S still possible
some of these showers may get far enough south to briefly impact
kind and klaf for the next few hours and have mentioned vcsh for
this with no visible restrictions. Otherwise will maintain a dry
forecast. Skies will clear this evening as the upper wave
rotates away to the east and a large high pressure ridge builds
south into central Indiana. Northerly winds at 10-15kts today will
diminish to around 5 kts tonight and veer northeast.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none.



near term...nield
short term...nield
long term...smf

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