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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
248 PM EDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

the synopsis...near term and short term sections have been updated


issued at 246 PM EDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

High pressure will provide dry weather for the majority of the
forecast period. The only exception will be over the weekend as a
weak system moving through the region brings low chances for
showers and isolated storms. Temperatures will be on the upswing
over the next few days as readings push toward and slightly above
normal into next week.


Near term /tonight/...

Issued at 246 PM EDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Mostly clear skies expected for later tonight...once the
diurnally charged cumulus deck dissipates around sunset. Used a MOS
blend for temperatures and lowered this slightly to account for a
little extra radiational cooling. Generally looking at lows in the
middle 50s across central Indiana.


Short term /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 246 PM EDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

A dry forecast will continue through Friday night...with
gradually increasing high cloud as a weak system pushes toward
the area for the weekend.

Models continue to poorly handle the weak system set to impact the
area this weekend so confidence is not very high. Generally stuck
with low 20 to 30 percent probability of precipitation for Saturday through Sunday night as
models look dry or weak enough to not warrant any higher of pop
mention. Weak instability also warrants at least isolated thunder
mentioned during this time.

Temperatures and humidity will also rise around
seasonal normals over the course of the weekend.


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...

Issued at 155 PM EDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

The extended begins with an upper trough pulling out of central
Indiana and off to the east. Precipitation will probably be over
before Sunday night begins but may have to include a slight chance
in the east for a few hours. After that upper ridging builds over
the area. Under high pressure aloft temperatures should increase
to above normal and dry weather should be the rule. Near the end
of the period Tropical Storm Erika could be somewhere in the
southeast U.S. And it could bring precipitation chances to at
least the southern counties.


Aviation /discussion for 271800z taf issuance/...

Issued at 100 PM EDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Mainly VFR through the period. Klaf could have MVFR ceilings for
an hour or two to start off before ceilings rise to VFR. Winds
around 5 kts or less with an easterly component drop to near calm
during the overnight before picking up to around 5-8 kts out of
the southeast by middle morning.

Kbmg could see a few hours of MVFR fog near daybreak based on
guidance and forecast soundings but other sites do not develop as
sharp an inversion and should remain VFR.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...smf
short term...smf
long term....cp

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