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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
656 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014


The near term section has been updated below.


issued at 359 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

With the area on the periphery of an upper level ridge to the
southwest...a weak upper wave will move through the area this
morning followed by a weak surface trough late tonight. While
these features may be able to produce a few sprinkles...their more
likely impacts are merely an increase in cloud cover. High
pressure will be the dominant feature through the weekend...which
will be nearly ideal as far as autumn weekends go in central
Indiana. A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday...with
the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure
will quickly reassert control late next week with another stretch
of dry weather.


Near term /today/...
issued at 656 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Added some low probability of precipitation across the north this morning as precipitation has held
together much better than expected. Most areas still unlikely to
measure...but at least some will. Previous discussion follows.

Issued at 359 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Weak upper wave noted on water vapor imagery centered near Chicago
this morning. This feature will move through the region this
morning...with the potential for some sprinkles or very light
showers as some weak isentropic lift and midlevel frontogenesis
accompanies the feature. Will carry a 14 pop and a slight chance
of sprinkles today as most areas will be unlikely to measure but
should see at least a few drops from the sky.

On temperatures...upstream numbers and sky cover expectations suggest the
model blend is a bit too warm today and have dropped them a degree
or so...especially in the northeast.


Short term /tonight through Sunday night/...
issued at 359 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Another weak disturbance will move through the area late tonight
in the form of a subtle surface trough. However...have removed the
chance of sprinkles that was previously in the forecast as
accompanied forcing is substantially weaker than this mornings
wave which has only thus far managed to produce a very weak line
of showers across northwestern Indiana and eastern Illinois. High
pressure will be the dominant force upon departure of this trough
and the remainder of the short term forecast will be dry.

Maximum temperatures look to be substantially warmer through the
weekend as heights build across the area and broad southwest flow
develops late in the weekend. Bumped consensus numbers up slightly
as this compares more favorably to upstream numbers and thickness
forecasts. Middle autumn weekends are rarely more ideal than this across
central Indiana.


Long term /Monday through Friday/...
issued at 359 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

A cold front is still prognosticated to move across the region Monday
night through Tuesday night...with the highest probability of precipitation during the day
Tuesday. Feel confident enough in this event thanks to good model
consensus and consistency to go with likely probability of precipitation for most locations
on Tuesday. Could be a few thunderstorms rolling through with the
frontal passage. We are not outlooked for severe weather at this
time however. Temperatures start out above average for the period
then after cold frontal passage are slightly below normal through
middle week. Superblend initialization generally worked well.


Aviation /discussion for the 241200z taf issuance/...
issued at 617 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Mostly VFR cumulus spreading over central Indiana early this morning.
Some MVFR Cat ceilings may continue at locations such at klaf and
khuf for the next few hours. Otherwise winds will be calm or light
south and southwest 7 knots or less after 15z. Light winds and mostly
clear skies tonight may produce some patchy fog early Sat morning.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none.



near term...nield
short term...nield
long term...smf

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