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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
1025 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

the aviation section has been updated below.


issued at 155 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

High pressure will provide dry conditions through much of the next
week. Temperatures will return to around average values for late
September by the weekend.


Near term.../overnight/...
issued at 922 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Temperatures have fallen off quite rapidly since sunset...but the
fall should slow with time as the temperature/dewpoint spread

Forecast looks in good shape. No updates planned at this time.
Previous discussion follows.

Few to scattered cumulus this afternoon will dissipate after loss of
heating this evening. Expect clouds across Wisconsin and Michigan to
break up some and move mainly north and east of the will
go with a mostly clear night.

Winds will be light with high pressure moving overhead so expect
good radiational cooling. MOS represents this well so stayed close.


Short term.../Tuesday through Thursday/
issued at 155 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Focus is temperatures through the period. Models are similar so will
use a blend.

With high pressure remaining in control and providing a dry easterly
flow for much of the short term...skies should remain mostly clear.

Temperatures will gradually rise through the period. However mav
looks to warm things up too quick given the easterly component to
the flow. Will trend closer to the met MOS/model blend through the
short term.


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 231 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Quiet weather is expected for much of this period as strong high
pressure and ridging aloft is expected as indicated by the GFS and
European model (ecmwf). By Sunday warmer arrives on southerly winds and the GFS
and European model (ecmwf) continues to hint at an upper level short wave arriving
in the lower Mississippi Valley and beginning to push north into
the Ohio Valley. Moisture with this system appears limited at this
point...however small probability of precipitation will be warranted at this time.
Otherwise near seasonable temperatures will be expected.


Aviation /discussion for the 230300z/...

Issued at 1025 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

No changes needed to the taf.

Previous discussion follows...

Surface high pressure over the area will result in clear skies
through the taf period. Would not rule out MVFR fog overnight at the
smaller airports as the wind quickly becomes calm...however any
visibility restrictions will be too brief if it happens to put in
the tafs.

Winds with an easterly component tomorrow will be 7 knots or less
under a very weak surface pressure gradient and with upper ridge
over the area.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...50/jas
short term...50
long term....puma

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