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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
425 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015

the aviation section has been updated below.


issued at 323 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015

High pressure building over central Indiana will bring dry weather
for the next several days and slightly above normal temperatures.
Chances for rain will arrive Thursday night and depart Friday night
as a cold front moves through the Great Lakes.


Near term /tonight/...

Issued at 323 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015

Tonight expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the area
tonight with high pressure building and spreading subsidence over
the area. Added some patchy fog across the northern counties late
based on how low those area stayed under cloud cover today and have
cooler temperatures than to the south.


Short term /Monday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 323 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015

High pressure will build over central Indiana through the short term
and keep dry conditions over the area. Stuck close to warmer
guidance numbers for highs Monday and Tuesday based on 850 mb
temperatures similar to today and not much advection but airmass
slowly modifying. For overnight lows stayed with a guidance


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...

Issued at 155 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015

Ensembles still showing a cold front sweeping through the area
Thursday night through Friday evening. Will keep scattered
showers in the forecast during this time...and debated about
whether to included isolated thunder. There is a little elevated
instability but feel not enough to warrant this in the forecast at
this time. Next weekend looks dry as a strong ridge of high
pressure builds over the region. Blended initialization handled
things well and only minor tweaks were required.


Aviation /discussion for the 042100z kind taf update/...
issued at 425 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015

Some limited diurnal cloud based around 035 has developed to the
east of the kind will add this to the forecast for the
rest of the afternoon.

Previous discussion follows.

Aside from lingering low level clouds at klaf through 19-20z this
afternoon...the rest of the taf period will be VFR. Some patchy
radiation fog may be possible at the outlying sites overnight.
This may produce brief periods of MVFR visibilities early Monday
morning. Klaf may be impacted with lower conditions of IFR
visibilities and ceilings. This was depicted in the 1800z tafs.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...cp
short term...cp
long term....smf

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