Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
419 PM EDT sun Apr 26 2015


The aviation section has been updated below.


issued at 339 PM EDT sun Apr 26 2015

Largely uneventful forecast for the coming week as the area
remains in between weak systems passing to the south and
northeast. Next significant opportunity for precipitation appears
to be next weekend as a somewhat more organized frontal system


Near term /tonight/...
issued at 339 PM EDT sun Apr 26 2015

Clear skies expected tonight under the influence of surface ridge
nosing into the area. With consensus temperature numbers getting down
into the middle to upper 30s...some concern about frost potential
across the northern half to two thirds...but with winds expected
to remain on the order of 5 to 10 miles per hour...will only carry patchy
frost at most. Does not merit frost advisory at this time.


Short term /Monday through Wednesday/...
issued at 339 PM EDT sun Apr 26 2015

Will maintain dry forecast throughout the short term. Would not be
shocked to see a sprinkle or two across the south on
Wednesday...but main system remains well south of the area and
measurable precipitation appears unlikely. This leaves temperatures as
the only significant forecast variable.

Given min temperatures again expected to drop into the middle 30s across
northern portions of the area tomorrow night...will again carry
patchy frost. Winds look to be a little lighter tomorrow
night...and this may necessitate an advisory across northern
portions of the area...especially if later model guidance drops
min temperatures further.

Consensus numbers appeared reasonable on min temperatures...perhaps a bit
cool given the strong sun expected early in the week. Should see a
gradual warming trend with highs back into the middle 60s by middle


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
issued at 250 PM EDT sun Apr 26 2015

First challenge to the extended will be whether or not to include
small probability of precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday as models bring an upper
wave southeast over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on
Thursday. At this point though...will keep a dry forecast going as
surface ridge just to our west is not conducive to a lot of

The second challenge will be whether or not to introduce late
weekend probability of precipitation as extended models bring a frontal system to the
western Great Lakes and Southern Plains with a southerly wind
component drawing Gulf moisture northward. They also have waves
dropping southeast through a modest Great Lakes to middle
Mississippi Valley upper ridge. These factors seem to be enough to
introduce at least small late weekend thunderstorm chances.

As the surface ridge moves to the southeastern states next weekend
and southerly flow commences...should see temperatures climb back up
to above normal with afternoon highs in the 70s per the regional


Aviation /discussion for the 262100z kind taf update/...
issued at 419 PM EDT sun Apr 26 2015

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Good confidence in VFR conditions through the taf period under the
influence of surface high pressure. Due to residual moisture around
850 millibars and cyclonic flow aloft...did include scattered
diurnal cumulus at 5k feet or above through 23z.

North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots will drop to 10
knots or less after 23z.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none.



near term...nield
short term...nield

Visit US at http://www.Weather.Gov/ind

Follow US on facebook...twitter and youtube at:

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations