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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
304 am CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 303 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

The location of the cold front appears to be just south of our
forecast area. It is forecast to return north as a warm front,
moving from SW to NE tonight. The unstable air mass extends well
north of the front all across our counties, as evidenced by the
isolated showers popping up early this morning across the northern
half of central Illinois. Added sprinkles to the northern counties for the
pre-dawn hours, and may need to extend the sprinkles after 12z east
toward cmi/dnv if The Channel of precip continues. Otherwise,
overall thoughts on showers/storms are for a progression of chance
pops from west to east as the warm front begins to approach west-SW Illinois
in response to low pressure lifting from Nebraska into Minnesota.
The high res hrrr, arw, and nmm along with the Canadian Gem all are
very scarce with coverage of storms over the next 12-24 hours, and
mainly in our far west-SW counties this afternoon. The 00z NAM, GFS,
and European model (ecmwf) all are a bit more aggressive, bringing precip as far east
as I-57 and lwv/Robinson. We kept the previous trends in the grids
of diurnally driven coverage, with higher chance pops in the SW half
of our forecast area this afternoon into early evening, then
trimming them back west later this evening/overnight. Confidence is
still low on precip coverage and timing based on very weak triggers
expected in our area northeast of the frontal boundary.

Sunshine will be filtered by mid-high clouds today, with highs in
the lower 80s north and some upper 80s S of Jacksonville to lwv.
Lows tonight will remain mainly in the lower 70s as the approaching
warm front keeps some cloud cover higher dew points in our area.


Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 303 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

Upper wave across The Rockies to make slow progress eastward
while dampening out Friday night over the Mississippi Valley.
Showers and storms Friday afternoon should be more scattered, with
a larger area of rain and storms coming in Friday night ahead of
the cold front. Have increased pop's to around 60% from I-55 west
by late Friday night and area-wide on Saturday.

The frontal boundary starts to become more diffuse Saturday night as
the upper wave flattens, and is difficult to discern by Sunday
morning. Have lingered the likely pop's across the southeast County Warning Area
Saturday night as moisture continues to surge into the Ohio Valley,
and will keep high chance pop's going there into Sunday as well.
Further northwest, mainly dry conditions are on tap on Sunday.

Digging wave across The Rockies on Saturday night will be tracking
through the Mississippi Valley by Monday. Latest European model (ecmwf) draws some
cooler weather further south than the GFS, although not quite this
far south, as the west-East Ridge across the lower tier of states
starts to strengthen again. Reasonable model agreement exists with
the associated cold front passing through on Monday, then hanging up
just south of I-70 as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. Showers
and storms to start moving back in Sunday night with the highest
chances on Monday. With the front hanging up, have lingered the
pop's across the southern County Warning Area into Tuesday night, but did dry out
areas north as a small surface high drifts into the Great Lakes.

Rather muggy conditions to continue into early next week, with drier
air settling southward beginning Monday night behind the second


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1157 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

Quiet aviation weather conditions expected to prevail for the most
part across the central Illinois terminals. Weak high pressure has
built across the area, with the main frontal boundary stalled
across the southern tip of Illinois. A storm complex is getting
going across the Central Plains and lifting to the northeast. While
this specific complex should miss the terminals, the disturbance
driving it will help lift the frontal boundary over southern
Illinois back to the north. This should eventually bring a risk of
thunderstorms back to the area by Thursday afternoon, but
confidence is too low to go above a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention at this time.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...shimon
long term...geelhart

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