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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
318 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Short term...(tonight)
issued at 318 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Drier air mass and mostly sunny skies is allowing the cumulus/lower level
moisture to mix out this afternoon in the east. Cirrus shield
spilling into the area is limiting heating in the west part of the
County Warning Area. Tonight...some cloud cover will continue in the west while the
east remains mostly clear. The differences in cloud cover from west
to east will create a difference in temperatures overnight with western
areas warmer than in the east. Winds will be out of the southeast
all night and light enough to have no effect on temperatures through the
period. Expecting another mesoscale convective system to develop out west with remnants
falling into western and northwestern Illinois during the early morning
hours..so will have chance showers and thunderstorms northwest of
the Illinois River after midnight.

&&

Long term...(thursday through wednesday)
issued at 318 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

- kchi 030758
wrkafd

Morning upper air first shortwave over NE-Kansas triggering convection
working way southeast through MO today. Moisture channel data shows
next wave in The Rockies. Nearly stationary frontal boundary in the
Kansas to Iowa to northern MO will remain focus for low level jet storm
development next few days. 850mb shows moisture axis and thermal
ridge advecting northward through OK to Kansas to northern MO.

Models Show Low level jet again developing tonight focusing into NE
to IA/MO. Enough instability to develop convection tonight and then
move east down the upper ridge toward Illinois.

Expect low level jet to again fire convection on the boundary late
Thursday and most significant convection to track overnight into County Warning Area by
early Friday, with weakening convection by Friday afternoon.

Frontal boundary to be mainly south of area Saturday, and then upper
flow bringing front back north for Sunday into Sunday night with
added convective chances. Dry then until weak wave midweek.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1239 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015
low level moisture enhanced by southerly flow providing just
enough for a broken cumulus field...but the cirrus starting to block some
of the heating in the west...concentrating the cumulus in the eastern
half of the state. Clearing of the cumulus expected towards the end of
the day, and scattered/broken cirrus to continue. With the extent of the
cloud cover over central Illinois, mixing out the boundary layer
moisture will be limited. As a result, have added a tempo for
reduced visible for the morning hours.



&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...auten
long term...goetsch
aviation...hjs

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