Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
858 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014
issued 858 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014
Mid and high clouds still blanket the area this evening and will
continue into the overnight hours. Radar is showing very limited
returns along the Illinois River, but these should advect toward the
east the remainder of the night. Current forecast has 20pct pops
for tonight and think this remains a reasonable forecast. Winds
and temps look fine as well. So no update planned at this time.
issued 643 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites next 24hrs. Mid and
high clouds will remain over all sites tonight and through the
overnight hours. Then skies will clear tomorrow early morning and
continue into the afternoon. Winds will be light through the
period, with directions variable this evening, then becoming
northwest overnight and through tomorrow; though with speeds less
than 6kts, winds may be variable tomorrow as well.
issued 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014
Short term...tonight through monday:
Cold front currently crossing the forecast area is coming through
dry. However, a Post frontal band of forcing tonight associated
with coupled jet streaks/associated mid level frontogenesis may be
able to squeeze out some very light rain or sprinkles. However,
the dry airmass in place will keep the precipitation to a minimum.
Then, upper level/surface ridging will build into/across the area
Friday into Sunday. This will provide quiet weather and moderating
temperatures through the period. Temperatures should be well above
normal, in the 70s, for the weekend.
A slow moving system, one that has been trending slower, is
expected to impact the area by Monday. This system should provide
the best chance for rainfall during the next week. Monday will be
a bit cooler with this system in the area, but the cooling in its
wake will be minimal.
Long term...Tuesday through thursday:
Ridging builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday in the wake of
monday's system. This scenario is supportive of quiet weather and
high temperatures mainly in the 70s.
The next system, also a slow mover is currently progged to arrive
by Thursday or Friday. While the details still need to be worked
out with respect to timing, have carried slight chance/chance pops
starting Thursday to account for the eventual arrival of this system.