Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

issued at 1045 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

The forecast generally looks on track today with just very minor
updates to sky grids over eastern Illinois where few to scattered
cumulus clouds from I-57 east, especially near in/Illinois border per
NAM and RUC curule but still mostly sunny skies. Highs in the
upper 60s to around 70f with north winds 5-10 mph.

1028 mb high pressure over NW Illinois and northern MO late this morning to
settle over central Illinois tonight and continue fair weather with
temperatures a bit below normal. Temps currently in the upper 50s
and lower 60s should climb about another 10 degrees for highs in
the upper 60s to around 70f this afternoon. Coolest readings over
east central Illinois.


Short term...(today)
issued at 341 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

High pressure centered over eastern Nebraska will move east into the
area today. This will bring clear skies, dry weather and light
winds. Even with lots of sunshine today, highs are only expected
to reach into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. GFS MOS guidance
looks several degrees too warm, while the NAM is too cool.


Long term...(tonight through sunday)
issued at 341 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

An extended period of quiet weather throughout the remainder of the
forecast with high pressure building into and remaining in control
of the Midwest. Surface ridge dominating much of the eastern half
of the Continental U.S. And keeping the weather quiet and fair, with slowly
warming temps through the work week. Weak flow under the sfc high
becomes more southerly on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts slightly
eastward. Warming trend continues with the thermal ridging over
the desert SW slowly advecting into the center of the country and
Max temps are just above normals by Thursday. A weak trof brings
some precip to the plains Wednesday, but the ridge remains in place
and dry air eroding the activity before impacting central Illinois.
In the extended, the GFS pushes some minor precip into the extreme
southeast with an oddly evolving upper pattern beyond day 6. European model (ecmwf)
remaining dry and energy aloft without significant flow seeming to
retrograde somewhat under a larger scale ridge. Keeping the
forecast dry for next weekend until the models become a little more
cohesive with their solutions under the pattern shift.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1225 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

VFR conditions should continue across the central Illinois terminal
airports through Tuesday. Clear skies to generally prevail with
just a few cumulus clouds around 3k ft possible from cmi east.
1027 mb high pressure near the Illinois/Iowa border and northern MO will
drift east across central Illinois tonight and into the Ohio River
valley on Tue. This will continue the fair/dry weather across
central IL, with no fog expected overnight due to dry airmass.
Winds to stay light out of the north near 5 kts today, then light
and variable to calm at times tonight, and light se winds afer
14z/9 am Tue.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...



short term...auten
long term...hjs

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations