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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
707 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Short term...(today)
issued at 338 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Surface high pressure will dominate the weather over the area today
with mostly sunny skies and lighter winds. A boundary is south of
County Warning Area and could become active this afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms. However all this will remain south and southwest of
the County Warning Area so will only have slight chance probability of precipitation in the southwest only
for this afternoon. Should be lots of sunshine so temperatures should warm
into the middle 80s across the area by this afternoon.

Long term...(tonight through wednesday)
issued at 338 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Not much of a shift in the forecast this morning with some fine
tuning on the arrival of the front Friday night/Sat. Before then, the
precipitation is starting to move into the region later tonight in the
extreme west...models hinting at some warm air advection showers developing ahead
of the next system as the winds veer around to more southerly just
off the surface. Bulk of the systems lift should not arrive until
Friday ahead of and with the boundary. Timing of the system
starting to put Friday afternoon in contention for severe weather.
Though the shear may remain relatively weak, the warm and muggy
airmass will provide plenty of instability for an approaching front.
So far, Storm Prediction Center has kept much of central Illinois in a marginal threat for
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
overnight and into Saturday...when the marginal threat shifts to the
extreme southeast along and near the I-70 corridor. Much cooler air moving
in behind the boundary, and the weekend wraps up unseasonably cool
for Sunday through Tuesday with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Sun night
through Wednesday night should see little chance for rain although the
superblend still trying to pull in some probability of precipitation from convective noise
in some of the models.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 707 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. Blow off cirrus
clouds from the dying mesoscale convective system over northwest MO will spread over the
area this morning and through this afternoon. A frontal boundary
extending from southern Illinois northwestward into parts of MO will
lift northward and by this evening a broken deck of middle clouds
will develop and effect each site this evening...along with
scattered cumulus. Precipitation will develop out west along this front across
MO and could advect into the area overnight. However...lots of
uncertainty here so will leave out any showers/thunderstorms for now and
just increase cumulus clouds to become broken. Winds will be southeast
through the day around 10-12kts and then become southerly when the
front moves north through the area late tonight. Wind speeds will
decrease after sunset.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...auten
long term...hjs

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