Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
103 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Discussion...
issued 1050 am CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

The surface ridge axis extends from Lake Huron through Illinois to
Arkansas. Very dry air under the high will give US full sun,
pushing highs up into the 70s. Analysis of the 12z ilx sounding, mixing
down from 850 mb would put highs near the mid 70s, or a few
degrees warmer than our forecast highs. Highs yesterday reached
near 70 and increasing southeast winds will increase low level
warm advection slightly. Will increase highs a couple degrees
across the board, and keep afternoon dewpoints in the 30s to near
40. Relative humidity levels will drop to around 15% in areas,
which will be very dry for fire weather concerns. Lower winds will
help prevent the need for a red flag warning, but caution should
be observed with outdoor fires.

The remainder of today's forecast grids are on track. Updated
info will be available shortly.

Shimon

&&

Aviation...
issued 100 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

High pressure will slowly slide east the rest of today and
tonight, allowing for a southeast return flow to continue over the
next 24 hours. Wind speeds through late afternoon will be in the
10-15 kt range. After sunset, wind speeds will diminish to the
7-9kt range for the balance of the night. Little to no cloud cover
is expected through the taf period due to a deep layer of dry air.
Cirrus clouds may increase on Easter Sunday as low pressure
develops in the plains.

Shimon
&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$