Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Short term...(tonight)
issued at 247 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, and a cold front
is draped across the southern US. Tropical Storm Odile is over the
Gulf of California, parked just south of a 500mb ridge. Forecast
for ilx is dominated by slow warming trend under the high, and
precip chances into next weekend. Overnight, expecting quiet
weather and temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Only
concern will be the potential for fog, particularly in the
southeast, where stratocu have trapped some of the higher dwpts in
the region at the sfc. Patchy fog in the forecast as a result in
the southeast, further north will still be possible, just not really
enough to mention at this time, provided the dwpts continue to mix
and drop a couple degrees.


Long term...(wednesday through tuesday)
issued at 247 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

High pressure to move off to the east over the Great Lakes on
Thursday and Friday. Cold front from the northern plains to reach
northern Iowa by early Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front
should bring ample moisture back into the area by the day Saturday.

Models differ some on the movement of the remains of Odile into the
Southern Plains. Moisture appears to be trending to make it into OK,
but should not reach into Illinois in time as the front should move in and
advect its remains southward.

The cold front is expected to move into region during the day
Saturday, with the main affects and associated precipitation on
Saturday night for central Illinois. Exiting precipitation on Sunday, so
gradually dropped pops down through the day.

A new high pressure center would then come in behind the front for
the start of next week.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1222 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014
light and variable winds throughout the pd under a building sfc
ridge. Main issue becomes The Retreat of the stratus in the srn
terminals...overcast in Dec and broken in both cmi and spi, hanging close
to the MVFR/VFR break. Per vis Sat imagery, the stratus erodes and
is replaced by a blooming cu field almost immediately. Given this leaving current conditions until about an hour or two
before sunset as the cu field breaks up. For now, fog mention is
still MVFR, though the lingering llvl moisture in the south will
lend itself to lower vis in the srn terminals should it not be
able to mix out by Max heating this afternoon.


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...hjs
long term...goetsch

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations