Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
issued 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
Latest radar mosaics showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
from near Rockford southeast into central Indiana, along a weak
convergence boundary. Hrrr suggests some of this may clip the far
northeast County Warning Area later this afternoon, where 20% pop's remain in
place. Am planning on leaving the evening dry, as any lingering
showers will quickly be fizzling as sunset approaches.
Upper air analysis continues to show strong ridging west of The
Rockies northward into Canada, with the eastern states and
provinces dominated by a broad long wave trough anchored via an
upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. The long range
pattern does not change during the forecast period, except that
the upper low opens up some and starts to lift northeast. Some
hints exist that it may return early next week, but the associated
cooler surge looks to stay north of Illinois at this point.
Little change in the going forecast is needed. Temperatures are
expected to rise a couple degrees, with lower 80s for highs and
upper 50s-lower 60s for lows from Wednesday through the weekend,
and slightly warmer early next week. Precipitation chances remain
focused on Friday and Saturday, mainly diurnally driven, as weak
shortwaves pivot through in the broader upper troughs.
issued 1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z taf period.
Northwesterly winds of around 10kt this afternoon will diminish to
less than 5kt this evening as high pressure builds into the area.
Light west/northwest winds will resume on Wednesday. Aside from scattered diurnal
clouds, skies will remain mostly clear through 18z Wed.