Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
304 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Discussion...
issued 301 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Forecast today deals with warming conditions and more Summer type
of humid and weak precipitation chances.
Short term...tonight through Friday night.
Morning upper air and moisture channel imagery shows deepening
trough in the western states with other upper trough in the
appalachian mountain region. Weak ridge in the plains will be the
strengthening feature through the weekend. Surface data shows high
pressure center in Great Lakes with fair weather cumulus over County Warning Area today
in light easterly surface flow.
All models consistant in building over upper ridge over plains as
the eastern trough moves to east and the western trough expands over
much of the Western Mountain region. Boundary level winds become
southerly and begin to pump warm air into Midwest that continues
into weekend.
Long term...Saturday through Wednesday.
Ridge influence over over County Warning Area remains through the Wednesday period.
Expect humid conditions with highs in the lower 90s into next
week. Northwest sections of the County Warning Area may have few brief periods of
convection as remains of mesoscale convective system possible due to the upper Midwest
frontal zone. However even when the main wave moves northeast into
the Great Lakes by late Tuesday and Wednesday...upper ridge still aids in
sheltering our area. For that reason...with no significant frontal
systems...chose to keep probability of precipitation on low end...at the most in the
widely scattered range. When periods get closer...additional probability of precipitation may
then be needed.
Goetsch
&&
Aviation...
issued 1230 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Quiet weather expected the next 24 hours. Have had some diurnal
cumulus develop over most of the taf sites over the last hour or
two...and these may briefly form ceilings around 4000 feet early
this afternoon before diminishing again. Light northeast winds
should gradually turn southeast during the night...before taking a
more sustained southerly direction Thursday morning as high
pressure pulls eastward from the Great Lakes.
Geelhart
&&
Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
